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Old 01-31-2009, 01:06 PM   #21
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You are correct I asked.

And I do appreciate the detailed input I got.
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Old 01-31-2009, 03:50 PM   #22
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You are correct I asked.

And I do appreciate the detailed input I got.

You don't disagree that the realistic range is between 20-40% devaluation, right? I mean I cannot think of many ten year periods that would be less than 20% ....
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Old 01-31-2009, 04:01 PM   #23
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I didn't realize this before coming here, I understand now, its bitter medicine however its best to know now so I can prepare further for D-day 2019.
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Old 01-31-2009, 04:34 PM   #24
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Unless we end up in a nuclear winter, I do not see things changing to that level, nor have I read anything to indicate that.
First, this is a private company, not the federal government. The feds would bleed your company to pay their COLA pensions, but your company cannot return the favor. So IMO the $48,000 gets a 25% haircut just on risk.

I disagree with others who say that a 7% pa inflation is the high limit to consider. I don't think we can with any real confidence know what the high limit might be. To predict the current mess would have taken some wild off-the-charts guesses as to what might happen. The next 10 years will likely be no different in volatility, if not necessarily in outcomes.

I would not want any fixed nominal promises from a private company, unless they could be bought at a very meaningful discount.

I would not want to put numbers on it, because I am not counting on it, or bidding for it. But this is how I would look at the situation.

And don't forget, this is totally non-diversified. This is not a 1/10 part of your retirement, from what you have said, but a large hunk. We have seen some spectacular failures lately from non-diversification. They are more or less unpredictable.

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Old 01-31-2009, 04:58 PM   #25
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I would be more concerned about the pension if it were private, however its a large county, that do to its base has always been bullet proof to economic issues, ie no layoffs, no budget trims.
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Old 02-01-2009, 07:22 AM   #26
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Here is my dealio.

2019 is my retirement date, I will be 52.

I will get $48k annual pension for life, with some periodical COLAS (pension is one of the last defined benefit plans)

House paid off.

$200k Deferred comp 457.

No car or rv payments. Looks like medical insurance will be a big cost.

Based on this info. it looks like all will be well.

What do you guys think?
$48K today, "periodic COLA's" may be a real warning sign. What does that mean; maybe when the County's going gets tough the COLA's go? Personally, if it was me, I would be scrubbing expenses and doing everything I could to save more of my own money over the next 10 years.
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Old 02-01-2009, 09:12 AM   #27
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Wow perhaps we should all fly to Sweden for some kevorkian style relief.

If you have an issue with our analysis of the risks, by all means bring it up. But to merely ridicule might be perceived as a psychological defense mechanism on your part.
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Old 02-01-2009, 09:15 AM   #28
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Maurice instead of picking apart certain sections of the thread, how about you read the WHOLE thing before getting on your soap box.
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Old 02-01-2009, 09:33 AM   #29
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Sorry, bud, I didn't mean to pile on.


Welcome to the forum!
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Old 02-01-2009, 09:38 AM   #30
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Maurice I appreciate the info. you and the others provided, to be honest I did not think inflation would take a toll, now that I am armed with that knowledge I can better prepare.

Had I not come here and asked I would have been been financially at risk.

Thanks again to all who helped.
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Old 02-01-2009, 10:50 AM   #31
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Wow perhaps we should all fly to Sweden for some kevorkian style relief.
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You are correct I asked.
And I do appreciate the detailed input I got.
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Maurice instead of picking apart certain sections of the thread, how about you read the WHOLE thing before getting on your soap box.
We've had other posters arrive with similar questions. Many of them subsequently posted responses similar to yours.

In general, these situations occur because the new poster doesn't have the same perspective as the other board members and perhaps doesn't realize that these scenarios have been discussed many times, in some cases ad nauseum.

So if you're not hearing what you want to hear, you might want to hold off shooting messengers.
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Old 02-01-2009, 11:12 AM   #32
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Gee thanks Nords.......
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Old 02-03-2009, 12:13 AM   #33
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Gee thanks Nords.......
Never mind, I'm done dodging bullets.
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Old 02-03-2009, 01:58 PM   #34
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My only thought is to keep an eye on health insurance availabiltiy and potential costs. At 52 you'll probably be just fine, but as you approach 59-60, it becomes much more costly and not always easily available.
Is any available for purchase as a retiree through your employer? Might be worth looking in to.
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Old 02-03-2009, 06:59 PM   #35
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We have a cobra program Im sure, need to check into that.

My brother retired from UPS, since he did 30yrs, he gets full medical coverage for his wife and himself for life, thats amazing.

Not too many companies do that.
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Old 02-03-2009, 07:06 PM   #36
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Not too many companies do that.
Fewer every day.
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Old 02-03-2009, 08:11 PM   #37
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We have a cobra program Im sure, need to check into that
Remember that will only get you about 18 months of access and it's expensive.

Lack of access to health insurance is a retirement-buster. Do your due diligence. I know a lot of affluent people under age 65 who have all their financial preparations in line and waiting to go, only to find themselves forced to work year after year because they can't risk leaving their employer group health policy. And they don't need the money.

I am hopeful that health care reform over the next 4 years will at least make insurance available to all. That's a big step, though it won't be cheap I suspect.

This thread has been a little rough, but better to find all this out now rather than a day late.
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Old 02-04-2009, 05:57 AM   #38
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Well its better to know the deal before you sign. One thing I have not mentioned is I am planning to get a part time job after I leave the county.

3-4 days a week. If I can sock away another 100k in a few years working part time it will be worth the effort.

My inlaws are 60 and have NO insurance due to costs, so they make the trek to Mexico for very very affordable prescriptions and medical care.

They have dentists on the street hawking teeth cleaning for $10, I had to laugh.
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Old 02-04-2009, 06:28 AM   #39
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I have BIL who is on Medicare who still goes back to South Korea every other year for a "medical checkup".

Correct me if I am wrong on this (RIT) but DW and I just finished our "annual checkup" which included a bucket of blood tests, etc., a referral for Mammogram for her and a dermatology referral for me which resulted in removal of a suspected area on my face. After all the dust settled the "billed" amount was about $650 but we are under medicare and TFL so the actual cost to us was $0. And all results were clear including the Pathology on the "Cyst" removal. My point is that had we not been under MC and TFL our OOP expense would have been the $650, unless I do not understand the billings. Doctors bill $X and get reimbursed a lesser amount (due to Medicare and TFL limits) but the $X would be the OOP for the client?

I know routine checkups are not the ER worry but, baring a catastrophic problem, many ER could "coast" to Medicare (with some luck).
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Old 02-04-2009, 06:42 AM   #40
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Remember that will only get you about 18 months of access and it's expensive.

Lack of access to health insurance is a retirement-buster. Do your due diligence. I know a lot of affluent people under age 65 who have all their financial preparations in line and waiting to go, only to find themselves forced to work year after year because they can't risk leaving their employer group health policy. And they don't need the money.
Tell me about it. At least in my case, I will qualify for lifetime medical in November. And in my case, it will only amount to a little over two years' delay of my retirement. It's very annoying to watch those dividends roll in and to know that, even in this economic environment, I am FI and could be ER if I had health care lined up.

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I am hopeful that health care reform over the next 4 years will at least make insurance available to all. That's a big step, though it won't be cheap I suspect.
With the economy in such bad shape and so many other pressing issues to be addressed by this administration, I would not want my good health to be dependant on health care reform being in place and functional within the next 4 years (though I have been wrong before).
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