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Old 08-06-2019, 07:35 AM   #21
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OMY to me means...Oh boy, I can't wait until this year is over, and I no longer have to work. I can't think of a scenario where I would delay, especially if I had the listed assets of the OP, and able to use the "55 rule".
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Old 08-06-2019, 08:42 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by tominboise View Post
I have decided to go in July, 2020. I will be 60 (DW will be 58 and may or may not be working - she is currently employed as a programmer by IBM but may not be by that time). Anyway, I have had a (mental) target of $3mil in taxable & non taxable assets (IRA, 401k, Savings/brokerage). We have been bouncing around at $2.950mil for the last couple of months, so presuming that the economy doesn't completely tank between now and then, I think we will make it to that threshold. Assets are invested at 60%/32%/8% and the split between taxable and tax exempt is 35% taxable and 65% tax exempt (meaning 35% of our money is in post tax accounts and the rest is in IRA401K).

We also have around $1mil of value in our primary house, a nice cabin and some bare land. We have no debt. I have always used $120k annually as our spending rate. Our budget information would show we spend somewhat less then that.

Things that have me worried - cost of health care insurance.

We would probably start SS for DW at 62 and me at 70. I could go consulting after retirement if needed but don't really want to if I don't have to. Although maybe three months a year to pay the healthcare for the year. Then you aren't really retired, however.

Should I count down the remaining 330 days or make it 695 days?

Probably a stupid question.
Hi and welcome. Our circumstances are somewhat the same. Just that the ages are reversed and we are little more age seasoned lol. I just turned 59 this month and DW is 65. We also want to retire in 11 months (July 2020) although thinking about pushing this out till Dec 2020? That being said, it seems to me that your mental target should be more than enough to carry you both through easily with a spending cap of 110-120K until your SS kicks in; unless, the market has some hard pull backs and then it seems you have more than enough cash to carry you through those times until SS kicks in.
We are looking at about the same target amount (120K) annually; however, our portfolio is much smaller in a sense. We do do have a good pensions which will provide us over 85% of our target amount. The other will come from our investments in TSP and DW's 401K. Once I hit 65 I will draw my SS and then the real fun begins. At the end of the day like many have stated on this site, how much is really enough? Reading these posts, just makes me want me to stick with my original target date of July 2020 and maybe you should too.
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Old 08-06-2019, 09:56 AM   #23
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I suffered from OMY for a long while, and now that I've been retired for over two years I truly regret that. I won't ever get that time back.
^^^ I've literally heard sooo many people say this ^^^

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Old 08-06-2019, 10:31 AM   #24
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Cnoc, given how much older your wife is I think she deserves to retire now )
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Old 08-06-2019, 11:59 AM   #25
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Cnoc, given how much older your wife is I think she deserves to retire now )
I know Right? I keep telling her, although she wants to wait for her full SS
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Old 08-06-2019, 12:04 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by tominboise View Post

Should I count down the remaining 330 days or make it 695 days?

Probably a stupid question.
A stupid question, but only for this reason: you're asking this on an Early Retirement forum! Add me to the ones suggesting 330 days (or sooner).
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Old 08-12-2019, 11:58 AM   #27
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A good question, and an important one. A couple of questions in response. Have you run your numbers through FIRECalc? How solid is your budget estimate? It helps to really dig down into the budget and make sure all the bases are covered. This includes health insurance, emergency fund, and taxes. Gumby’s thread may help you with that. Some Important Questions to Answer Before Asking - Can I Retire?
I have been running FIRECALC for awhile but I went ahead and ran a bunch of scenarios with all the options that could be changed. Most important baseline was that I arbitrarily cut our portfolio value by $500k to account for healthcare and set the age limit to 30 years (99 for me, 97 for DW). I also used the constant spending power model.

When I include social security and the portfolio changes that would come from selling our cabin & real estate, every run comes back 100%.
When I take out social security, worst case is around 75%.
When I take out social security and the sale of the real estate, worst case comes back around 55%.
When I take everything out and set the investigate mode to spending levels, with 100% confidence, I get back a number of $93k spending per year.

I get similar results when using the retirement calculator on Fidelity.

I believe this is the conservative approach and that social security and medicare, in some form, will be around for the next 30 years.

The reason I am updating is that I was told by Megacorp that I am "on the list" to get RIFFed in the next couple of weeks. My old boss here at Megacorp has asked if I want him to go to bat for me and keep me employed in a new position working for him. There would be a couple of months salary (+/-) as severance.

I told him I had to think about it. I would like to take the layoff and take the rest of the year off. I think my modeling supports that decision.

What say you all?
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Old 08-12-2019, 12:02 PM   #28
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@Tominboise - take the severance, and enjoy. SS isn't going to dissolve, it's just currently forecast to take a 25% haircut. Since most of the $500K for healthcare should continue to earn money as you take it out, I'm guessing holding that as a reserve would provide ~$20K annually for health care, unless you put it in a checking account!

Go for it! FIRE already. As many here have said, they would love to get a severance package, even a small one!
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Old 08-12-2019, 12:03 PM   #29
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What say you all?
On page 1 I had said you could quit now, so a severance package to go is perfect! Check with your HR, but you can probably also get paid for unused vacation, and continue on company HI through the package period (and of course be cobra-eligible for 18 months vs. ACA - pricier almost always, but there are some benefits to not having to change insurance right away).

Grats!
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Old 08-12-2019, 12:13 PM   #30
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.... I was told by Megacorp that I am "on the list" to get RIFFed in the next couple of weeks..... What say you all?
I say this (for you)....

Take the package and be happy. Let your boss use his political capital on someone who needs it more than you.
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Old 08-12-2019, 12:13 PM   #31
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Sticking with my original answer - leave now. Welcome to RE.
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Old 08-12-2019, 12:53 PM   #32
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This is where the rubber meets the road. Now you decide if you REALLY want to stop working. It's OK if you don't, but if you do, the package is a sign from above...
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Old 08-13-2019, 03:11 PM   #33
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with a net worth like that you should have retired already and enjoying life. Your time on earth is not unlimited
this !!
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Old 08-14-2019, 10:59 AM   #34
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Update - I told my old boss to "keep me on the list" for RIF. It should be in the next couple weeks - certainly by the end of August. He is going to do some advocating for me regarding the severance package and what it will contain.


Thanks for the advice and the nudge(s) in the correct direction.....
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Old 08-14-2019, 07:58 PM   #35
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Edit - Our portfolio went down around 1.92% today. Hoping that's not a sign from above about how this is going to go down.....
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Old 08-14-2019, 08:01 PM   #36
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You were fine yesterday and you're fine today. It's a lot of volatility right now given the yield curve stuff.

This might, however, be a good time to look at your AA. One thing we do is keep a few years expenses in cash (CD/MM), so as never really needing to sell investments during dips.
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Old 08-14-2019, 08:23 PM   #37
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Edit - Our portfolio went down around 1.92% today. Hoping that's not a sign from above about how this is going to go down.....
Sequence of returns risk is real. Just plan for it and you’ll be OK. Ignore...and well, ah....
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Old 08-14-2019, 09:10 PM   #38
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Figure out how to get Obamacare subsidies and retire.
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Old 08-15-2019, 09:22 AM   #39
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Tom, firstly, good luck with your decision. I'm in a pretty similar boat: age, assets, monthly budget and desire (only thing is: my kiddos are all off the family plan). Still working, but contemplating leaving soon - one more year

Secondly, maybe these people exist and we just don't hear about them here, but I have never heard someone here (or anywhere actually) say "I wish I had made the decision to stay a year or two more." I have only heard the reverse.

The 5% number I had not heard before. Is it worth giving up 5% of the rest of your life for the 12 months in salary & benefits?
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Old 08-15-2019, 09:47 AM   #40
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I feel sorry for IBM'ers. I almost took a job with IBM out of college in 1987 and I am so glad I didn't.

I have similar investment assets. Your house and real estate (I assume this is not included in your $3M number) is much more than mine. Your spend rate is much more than mine. But you're also a few years older.

"Presuming that the economy doesn't completely tank" is a concern that many of us use to justify OMY. (I'd like to hear how others dealt with it - did you just close your eyes and take the plunge? Set up an extra large emergency fund or cash reserve?) I cannot imagine the stress if one had retired going into 2008, where you truly didn't know if the Dollar and the US Banking System were going to hold.

"A couple of months salary (+/-) as severance" is nice but probably doesn't make a big overall difference. Severance with insurance extension may be helpful?

Good luck sorting through it all.
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