Originally Posted by azphx1972
Welcome. Have you played with FIRECalc? I think you're cutting it really close, too close for comfort if it were me. We have similar balance sheets, except I don't have a pension, and I wouldn't dream of RE with your projected numbers even if I did have one. Is your pension COLA? That might make a little difference in your favor. I'd look into cutting expenses and stockpiling more into savings, and figure out a way to get rid of that mortgage payment before calling it quits.
Hi, I went in the went through FIRECalc again with what I believe is a realistic scenario of what my situation is. One major adjustment I made from the default is doing a 50/50 mix between equities and bonds (vs. 75% equities).
I also adjusted my require income to $60K a year which is a bit of a compromise. FIRECalc said 93% chance of success with that. I adjusted my retirement year to 2016 since I will be 55 in October of 2015 it makes sense to work the remainder of the year (given we get the Holidays paid for).
I need to play around a bit more with the different inputs. 93% almost seems too good to be true given my fairly low savings projection ($750K).
Once I added in the pension at $36K a year the world got better in a hurry. Once I "unchecked" COLA or adjusted for inflation it brought it back to reality.
Thanks again for all the help on this forum. It's been very valuable. I need to try some of the other calculators listed in this site. I've only done one other
one which was the Monte Carlo method. Cheers.