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Old 10-11-2007, 08:02 AM   #81
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I just read this thread and was wondering about your projected inflation rate of 4-4.5%. And was surprised to see that other posters are using the same. I always use 3%, which I thought was the historical average. On the other hand, I usually assume that my investment return rate will be much lower than the historical average (which I think is 10%), just to be on the safe side. I usually assume a overall return rate of between 4% and 7%.
Like you I tend to think in terms of overall return rate.

Before retirement I am targeting an overall return rate of 3.5-4%.
After retirement I am targeting an overall return rate of 2.5%-3%

I am doing much better than my target before retirement. Hopefully that can continue.



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ps: From one Excel junkie to another: Congratulations on your outstanding pre-FIRE preparation! Your savings and planning are equally impressive!
Thanks! That is nice of you to say!
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Old 10-11-2007, 08:03 AM   #82
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I use 4% for inflation and 7% for aggregate portfolio returns. We have been tracking under 4% and over 7% since retiring in 2002.
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Old 02-07-2008, 06:35 AM   #83
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So, how is everyone doing now that the market has come down 15% or so? Just checking in? Keeping the powder dry?
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Old 02-07-2008, 07:30 AM   #84
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So, how is everyone doing now that the market has come down 15% or so? Just checking in? Keeping the powder dry?
We just lost about 6.8%. But then again, we were up over 22% last year, so it isn't horrible.
Aside from that, we're basically out of the market right now (aside from my 401k ). But then again, I have about 28 years until I hopefully will have to start hitting that (due to the minimum distribution requirements).
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Old 02-07-2008, 07:45 AM   #85
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So, how is everyone doing now that the market has come down 15% or so? Just checking in? Keeping the powder dry?
I have one mandate during times like this.

I write the following phrase on my white board 10 times

"If I made it through 2001/2002 ok, I can make it through anything"



Oh and I never update my portfolio during these times and just tend to keep the plan of dollar cost averaging as I have been since my early 20's. For dollar cost averaging to be affective, we actually need these down times in the market, no matter how painful they are to go through.

Its been a while since I have had a down year so this year seems prime. Hopefully the hurt can stay minimal.
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Old 02-07-2008, 08:19 AM   #86
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Do you happen to have any template version of your spreadsheets by chance?
We're no where near the level that you are, but would like to get there in the next 10-15 years. Then live out the other 35+ years pretty comfortably.
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Old 02-07-2008, 02:50 PM   #87
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Spreadsheet

If you're interested, I posted my finance spreadsheet just now in the "Fire and Money" section, the post is located here:

http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ces-33199.html
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Old 02-07-2008, 05:16 PM   #88
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Almost 40 years old and SOOO happy to find this forum!!!

Wow, you seem to be on the right track as far as I can see.

Welcome to the forum!
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Old 02-08-2008, 07:51 AM   #89
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Yep. We're down about 8.5% from the highs back in August. Moved a lot to cash at year end. Now, need to decide when to jump back in......

I was originally thinking 1250 to 1280 on the S&P and 11500 to 11800 on the DOW. Now I'm thinking to bring this down to 1180 on the S&P and 10500 on the DOW.

Is there a grain ETF? Wheat in particular? Anyone ever heard of the ETF called "MOO" ?
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Old 07-03-2008, 12:46 PM   #90
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I was reading over this thread I started last year.

The over riding theme was that I was being too conservative in my estimations of my ability to retire.

A short 9 months later after a horrible 6 months in the market and prices going up all over the place, I now think I was not any where near conservative enough
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too conservative?
Old 07-05-2008, 06:32 PM   #91
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too conservative?

I dont know, still think you may be conservative here. Tha's ok...in market times like this, a bit of conservatism is what separates the losers from the big losers. Those who are short the market and long commodities are probably doing OK. See the dates of the earlier postings, the market is re-testing the lows of Feb/March just prior to the Bear Sterns bailout. Inflation is running hot, but, it's not the end of the world.... on the other side of the equation, housing sure is getting cheaper by the day !!!

The market is in "bear market" territory. sounds like the time to start buying to me....that is, if you are a long-term bull.
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