Almost there....I hope

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by monte1022 -The "planners" healthcare costs were for two people. ....

Then unless you live is a really high cost area for health insurance his numbers are stupid.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by monte1022 I agree. I am holding out hope that the Medicare age will be lowered to at least 55 or the ACA stays in force. Per my 2018 W2, my employer paid $31428 for our healthcare. I pay an additional $220/pay for this coverage which includes dental, rx, and health. All in the cost is $36708 and we still have high deductibles. This cannot continue.......

Have you priced out a health insurance policy for your zip code using healthsherpa.com or your state exchange? That $31k is really high compared to what many of us are paying.

[HI Bill]

Quote:

Originally Posted by monte1022 Hello again My "fee only" planner offered up some very sobering numbers on healthcare costs over the next decade. Our healthcare will cost an estimated 31k/yr and inflate to 69k/yr. Of course these numbers assume the ACA will not survive.

America's health care system would implode with such high costs, unless the financial planner is projecting for inflation, 30 years out. Very few would be able to pay into the system, and the hospitals would be empty, with people dying at home at earlier ages...I just don't see it getting that bad, not matter what happens (IMHO).

[monte1022]

I frequently use the Kaiser ACA calculator and find the results encouraging. My "planner" refuses to consider the ACA as an option going forward. Perhaps he wants us to devise a plan that will survive a worst case outcome. I must admit that I am spending even more time with my numbers (and here) post planner meeting.


We have time. We are still employed and debt free. My wife is just now starting to explore the psychology of not having a job. I started dreaming about the prospect at 23yo.



The 3 to 4 yr glide path will hopefully provide ample time and opportunity to make adjustments for a smooth landing. This board has and I am sure will continue to give solid advice during the journey.

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by monte1022 My "planner" refuses to consider the ACA as an option going forward. Perhaps he wants us to devise a plan that will survive a worst case outcome. I must admit that I am spending even more time with my numbers (and here) post planner meeting.

There's no "right" or easy answer to that, and it's often discussed here. IMO it's prudent to be aware of the full, unsubsidized cost of health care insurance, and to have a "Plan B" in case the subsidy goes away. The same applies for Medicare.

Access itself is something we really can't address now, nor can we plan for it, so no reason to fret.

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by monte1022 Hello again My "fee only" planner offered up some very sobering numbers on healthcare costs over the next decade. Our healthcare will cost an estimated 31k/yr and inflate to 69k/yr. Of course these numbers assume the ACA will not survive. Since we are not going to exit for another 3 to 4 years perhaps the fate of "Obamacare" will be better known. I sure miss the part time work healthcare benefit option of yesteryear.

Without the ACA tax credits, our premiums are around $25K with around a $14K out of pocket max (2 people, pre-Medicare age, HCOL area) so ~$39K plus dental, vision, out of network, etc. Before the ACA we had a $50K health care cost year, a family with kids at home and one major surgery, between premiums, out of pocket max, out of network costs (one non network specialist we planned for and some surprise out of network costs at an in network hospital we were not told about in advance) and some medical travel. Last year we had a $24 dollar year with the ACA and managing our MAGI to stay under the limit.

Good luck with your planning. Our costs have been between $50K pre-ACA and $24 post-ACA annually (not $24K, just $2 a month premiums and no doctor visits for the year.)

[monte1022]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort Without the ACA tax credits, our premiums are around $25K with around a $14K out of pocket max (2 people, pre-Medicare age, HCOL area) so ~$39K plus dental, vision, out of network, etc. Before the ACA we had a $50K health care cost year, a family with kids at home and one major surgery, between premiums, out of pocket max, out of network costs (one non network specialist we planned for and some surprise out of network costs at an in network hospital we were not told about in advance) and some medical travel. Last year we had a $24 dollar year with the ACA and managing our MAGI to stay under the limit. Good luck with your planning. Our costs have been between $50K pre-ACA and $24 post-ACA annually (not $24K, just $2 a month premiums and no doctor visits for the year.)

Thank you for the specific numbers. All of this information really helps.

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort Without the ACA tax credits, our premiums are around $25K with around a $14K out of pocket max (2 people, pre-Medicare age, HCOL area) so ~$39K plus dental, vision, out of network, etc. Before the ACA we had a $50K health care cost year, a family with kids at home and one major surgery, between premiums, out of pocket max, out of network costs (one non network specialist we planned for and some surprise out of network costs at an in network hospital we were not told about in advance) and some medical travel. Last year we had a $24 dollar year with the ACA and managing our MAGI to stay under the limit. Good luck with your planning. Our costs have been between $50K pre-ACA and $24 post-ACA annually (not $24K, just $2 a month premiums and no doctor visits for the year.)

Good info but when planning spending does one really need to allow the max OOP for both people every year? There must be an in between number..and just for information reasons you don't have to answer if you don't want to.. are you putting aside any of the 24K you are saving as a buffer if ACA goes bye bye before you both hit 65 or are you using it for living expenses...IOW is the 24K part of your projected AWR? Obviously you can't withdraw 24K without hurting your ACA cliff. If you had to draw the 24K for healthcare would your number still be comfortable to you?

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ivinsfan Good info but when planning spending does one really need to allow the max OOP for both people every year? There must be an in between number..and just for information reasons you don't have to answer if you don't want to.. are you putting aside any of the 24K you are saving as a buffer if ACA goes bye bye before you both hit 65 or are you using it for living expenses...IOW is the 24K part of your projected AWR? Obviously you can't withdraw 24K without hurting your ACA cliff. If you had to draw the 24K for healthcare would your number still be comfortable to you?

When we retired I budgeted $20K a year based on our COBRA costs that year but the next year the COBRA costs skyrocketed and the COBRA conversion policies were high, too, hence the $50K year which included only one person's OOP max, not even the family max.

We could have afforded the $50K a year but without the ACA we were considering moving to a cheaper state or country before paying that, at least until Medicare age, or I would have looked for a nonprofit kind of job with group health insurance. DH had brought a magazine home back then after a family visit in Europe with very nice looking villas in Spain for $350K USD, so living in a place like Spain in a nice villa and having our entire budget be $50K a year would have probably been a more rewarding use of that money than paying $50K a year in California for health care alone. Plus rent from our house here in the Bay Area would have covered all our expenses some place cheaper. We were fortunate to have good alternative options. We also thought about living in a state like Massachusetts for over half the year with lower premiums and no pre-existing condition clauses and having our health insurance based there.

The new governor here is a proponent for universal coverage with a Democratic super majority in the legislature, so I think even if the ACA gets scrapped at the federal level we would at least end up at minimum with no pre-existing condition clause in California and at this point, with a lot less years to cover until we reach 65, we would just ride out the cost until Medicare kicks in. California already passed laws with consumer protections for preventing surprise out of network bills at in network hospitals so we shouldn't have that happen again.

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort When we retired I budgeted $20K a year based on our COBRA costs that year but the next year the COBRA costs skyrocketed and the COBRA conversion policies were high, too, hence the $50K year which included only one person's OOP max, not even the family max. We could have afforded the $50K a year but without the ACA we were considering moving to a cheaper state or country before paying that, at least until Medicare age, or I would have looked for a nonprofit kind of job with group health insurance. DH had brought a magazine home back then after a family visit in Europe with very nice looking villas in Spain for $350K USD, so living in a place like Spain in a nice villa and having our entire budget be $50K a year would have probably been a more rewarding use of that money than paying $50K a year in California for health care alone. Plus rent from our house here in the Bay Area would have covered all our expenses some place cheaper. We were fortunate to have good alternative options. We also thought about living in a state like Massachusetts for over half the year with lower premiums and no pre-existing condition clauses and having our health insurance based there. The new governor here is a proponent for universal coverage with a Democratic super majority in the legislature, so I think even if the ACA gets scrapped at the federal level we would at least end up at minimum with no pre-existing condition clause in California and at this point, with a lot less years to cover until we reach 65, we would just ride out the cost until Medicare kicks in. California already passed laws with consumer protections for preventing surprise out of network bills at in network hospitals so we shouldn't have that happen again.

So you still have 20K as part of your FIRE budget even though you don't need it while on ACA? And if things starting costing more then 20K you would look around and consider your options...or at this point if you stayed on ACA say 7 years would have an extra 140K in your nest egg for flexibility.

I'm trying to ask how someone would plan their SWR when health care could cost zero or 20K plus.

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ivinsfan So you still have 20K as part of your FIRE budget even though you don't need it while on ACA? And if things starting costing more then 20K you would look around and consider your options...or at this point if you stayed on ACA say 7 years would have an extra 140K in your nest egg for flexibility. I'm trying to ask how someone would plan their SWR when health care could cost zero or 20K plus.

Our pensions and SS will cover most of our retirement expenses, including $10K health care. If we have to pay $50K for a few years before Medicare kicks in, we would just withdraw the extra money from our portfolio. For planning purposes, isn't it usually safest to hope for the best but plan for the worst? If the ACA gets scrapped, which is a distinct possibility, for us that would mean be prepared to pay through the nose for heath care including the max family OOP if individual coverage is even an option, go back to work for employer coverage, move to a state with reasonable rates and no pre-existing clauses like Massachusetts or Vermont, or move to another country like Mexico? We also have a dual citizenship option for Plan B.

[Dtail]

Like @pb4uski stated, just check out the exchanges for a true estimate.
On 24k MAGI, my monthly premium is $65, with excellent coverage and max OOP of 1,450 yearly.

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort Our pensions and SS will cover most of our retirement expenses, including $10K health care. If we have to pay $50K for a few years before Medicare kicks in, we would just withdraw the extra money from our portfolio. For planning purposes, isn't it usually safest to hope for the best but plan for the worst? If the ACA gets scrapped, which is a distinct possibility, for us that would mean be prepared to pay through the nose for heath care including the max family OOP if individual coverage is even an option, go back to work for employer coverage, move to a state with reasonable rates and no pre-existing clauses like Massachusetts or Vermont, or move to another country like Mexico? We also have a dual citizenship option for Plan B.

It is but what if planning for the worse such the OP maybe 60K a year before they hit Medicare effectively stops you from any kind of ER...is there a middle ground or number that people would be comfortable with. I think this is going stop real ER such as late 40's or early 50's in it's tracks..If you are already approaching 60 it's not as big of a risk.

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ivinsfan It is but what if planning for the worse such the OP maybe 60K a year before they hit Medicare effectively stops you from any kind of ER

That is what this board was like more before the ACA - many posters in the U.S. were FI but still working for health insurance. Not just the cost but even qualifying for a policy when most states allowed pre-existing condition clauses. Five states don't allow pre-existing condition clauses: "...many states have partial protections for people with preexisting conditions, and five states (Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont) have full protections, according to a 2015 report." Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuac.../#6e1cfc8a50e8

So if the ACA goes away you have to work within the pre-ACA framework. Pick your retirement state or country carefully or look for loopholes like opening your own small business for group rates. We already had the small business but the rates still would have been sky high in California without the ACA. Premiums vary by location. Some posters here in the 5 states with no qualifying had reasonable premiums. Actually San Francisco the city has universal health care coverage, and the mayor who supported it is now governor of California.

"It’s made San Francisco the only place in the country where truly universal health coverage exists, similar to what’s available in every other developed nation. Called Healthy San Francisco, it offers health care to those who can’t afford private insurance and are ineligible for other government health programs." Source: https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/04/...or-california/

[LimaPop]

Quote:

Originally Posted by monte1022 Hello again My "fee only" planner offered up some very sobering numbers on healthcare costs over the next decade. Our healthcare will cost an estimated 31k/yr and inflate to 69k/yr. Of course these numbers assume the ACA will not survive. Since we are not going to exit for another 3 to 4 years perhaps the fate of "Obamacare" will be better known. I sure miss the part time work healthcare benefit option of yesteryear.

US healthcare spending is $3T a year and population is $325M.... so the average cost should be around $900 per person per month.

[monte1022]

After much consideration we are adjusting our exit to a number instead of a date. For many years the 3-3.25m range seemed like an ideal target for our lifestyle. This spring was especially rough at work so I moved the range down to 2.6-2.8m. The HC cost debate and the ACA's uncertain future suggests that it is more logical to w*rk longer and allow the accounts to grow. An aggressive savings rate and a reasonable market return should get us there in 60 months or so (57.5 and 55) We will purge the house (+275 to 300k extra) and probably rent (or buy) a condo where we currently live so that DW can help her aging parents. Ultimately, our plan is to move to the family farm in the mountains. Until then I will avoid any OT and take maximum vacation time every year.....oh, I've been doing that already

[monte1022]

Quote:

Originally Posted by monte1022 After much consideration we are adjusting our exit to a number instead of a date. For many years the 3-3.25m range seemed like an ideal target for our lifestyle. This spring was especially rough at work so I moved the range down to 2.6-2.8m. The HC cost debate and the ACA's uncertain future suggests that it is more logical to w*rk longer and allow the accounts to grow. An aggressive savings rate and a reasonable market return should get us there in 60 months or so (57.5 and 55) We will purge the house (+275 to 300k extra) and probably rent (or buy) a condo where we currently live so that DW can help her aging parents. Ultimately, our plan is to move to the family farm in the mountains. Until then I will avoid any OT and take maximum vacation time every year.....oh, I've been doing that already

Reading this makes me ill. I won't last 60 months. I crave freedom now. I daydream of it all the time. Everything I think about doing is in the context of being free. I'm like a kid on Christmas morning waiting to open presents. I do not want to wish my life away, but wow, I am excited. When my youngest graduates I will have my freedom. I am obsessed with the idea.

I guess the board will get to see the composed side of monte as well as the excited side. I graduated HS and dropped 86k on college. I wrote my retirement plan at age 23 and graduated college at 24. I cannot believe that my plan might actually work. Thank you to everyone who is giving advice. Not a single one of my peers is even remotely interested in pursuing this trophy. I felt pretty alone until I found this board. Thanks again.

[compounder]

Quote:

Originally Posted by monte1022 Reading this makes me ill. I won't last 60 months. I crave freedom now. I daydream of it all the time. Everything I think about doing is in the context of being free. I'm like a kid on Christmas morning waiting to open presents. I do not want to wish my life away, but wow, I am excited. When my youngest graduates I will have my freedom. I am obsessed with the idea.

Holy cow I feel like I could have written this post! (I am 48 and thinking 4-7 years) I feel you are in the company of many that have felt/feel this same sentiment.

[flybynight]

Quote:

Originally Posted by monte1022 Reading this makes me ill. I won't last 60 months. I crave freedom now. I daydream of it all the time. Everything I think about doing is in the context of being free. I'm like a kid on Christmas morning waiting to open presents. I do not want to wish my life away, but wow, I am excited. When my youngest graduates I will have my freedom. I am obsessed with the idea. I guess the board will get to see the composed side of monte as well as the excited side. I graduated HS and dropped 86k on college. I wrote my retirement plan at age 23 and graduated college at 24. I cannot believe that my plan might actually work. Thank you to everyone who is giving advice. Not a single one of my peers is even remotely interested in pursuing this trophy. I felt pretty alone until I found this board. Thanks again.

I have had almost identical feelings. At 57, I just pulled the plug in April after much inner turmoil as documented in my prior posts. They threw a big retention bonus at me to stay through July so my day dreaming continues. It's true, none of my peers could believe that I had the means to leave and they all assumed I had a better offer. Once they knew I was done there were looks of sheer amazement. I could see the envy in their eyes plus many comments like "Wow, good for you...I wish I could do that...". And these are folks who make a ton of money. Folks here on this board are a rare breed for sure.

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by monte1022 Reading this makes me ill. I won't last 60 months. I crave freedom now. I daydream of it all the time. Everything I think about doing is in the context of being free. I'm like a kid on Christmas morning waiting to open presents. I do not want to wish my life away, but wow, I am excited. When my youngest graduates I will have my freedom. I am obsessed with the idea. I guess the board will get to see the composed side of monte as well as the excited side. I graduated HS and dropped 86k on college. I wrote my retirement plan at age 23 and graduated college at 24. I cannot believe that my plan might actually work. Thank you to everyone who is giving advice. Not a single one of my peers is even remotely interested in pursuing this trophy. I felt pretty alone until I found this board. Thanks again.

In that case why aren't you considering pulling the plug on your original date, using ACA while it still exists, keep your medical certs current and working part time if you need extra cash for HC. I personally think doom and gloom about ACA leaving is not a realistic scenario.