Am I good to retire on 650k with family?

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aerides If you're dead set on this... Do it for a year while working. Live on that budget while you don't yet have to. Find that $700 a month apartment within walking distance of school in a good climate. Pay $1200 on clothing, outings, "discretionary shopping" for the full year for a family of four with two growing children Save the equivalent in HI premiums + deductible (assuming your current job has HI) Track your utilities and cut those you won't have any more And most important, bank another year of salary Track everything to the penny Fund some 529's.... then see? You're 37, this "but i don't wanna" - every single one of us had that feeling, that impulse, but planned and removed glaring risks that you aren't seeing.

And don't forget you have to move to the East Coast, so factor in all those moving expenses. Are you selling all your household items and rebuying them , don't expect to sell for the amount you will spend to rebuy on the other end. Maybe you'll rent a uhaul then you need to pay for storage or have a apartment rented sight unseen. You'll need first and last and a security deposit too.

This will dig into your 25K in cash.

I just noticed you said you went to school for 10 years, did that give a very high income job? Do you have big student loans?

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 When people ask me why I retired early I say.... because I found my niche in life, doing nothing. Perhaps the OP is similar to me.

Similar, maybe.

However I don't recall you retiring in your 30's with a too small egg in your nest and a couple of children you plan on bringing up in a life near the poverty level. Or is my recollector on the fritz again?

[UnrealizedPotential]

200K in Vanguard Technology fund? No. Just no. You really need to rethink that. In a downturn I strongly suspect that will be hit hard. If I am right , how will your nest egg look then? You need to consider the possible downside of an investment, not just the possible upside.



If you really like it, I wouldn't put more than 50k in it. But that's just my opinion. It's your money, but I certainly wouldn't put 200K in ANY technology fund offered by any investment company.

[flintnational]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunningBum .........Going back to December... http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ids-89814.html You've gone from looking to retire with perhaps $2M and contemplating leaving the kids $1M to squashing them in the same bedroom and not doing anything but free activities (which I think are a lot rarer in schools these days). What happened in these 7 months?.......

+1

OP, apparently you have made the following changes in the last few months:

Moved AA heavily to tech away from total market index
Gone from a reasonable FIRE plan to a riskier plan
Making $280k to "I never wanted to work"

I suspect something is going on in your life that has prompted your change in approach. You might want to seek counseling or coaching to identify this issue and focus on it. Significant changes to life plans can be red flags.

Edit to add: Obviously I could be wrong. But you might want to consider why you have changed your well thought out plans.

[Bestwifeever]

Why don’t you just trade places with your wife for a few years? She might not be able to pull down the big bucks but her income would supplement your investment income.

[ivinsfan]

This is for a family of two.

if you can accumulate around 500-600K by age 50, that will help you survive for 17 years till age 67. From 67 you can start taking your full SS benefit; You get your amount (say 2600) and your non-working spouse gets 50% of that (1300) totaling 3900 per month. Since the medicare will take of your healthcare costs, 3900 will be good enough to survive for the rest of your life.

So the absolute minimum you need to save by 50 to retire safely is 600K. For each later year you retire, you can reduce the 600K by 50K / year. Does this sound reasonable? Not saying we can retire with 600K at 50 as it depends on economy and its good to have some buffer, but if we want a number this sounds like the absolute min. needed

- Sam


This is from another thread that you started in 17...Are you messing with us here. You've started 3 threads with this exact topic, but the facts keep changing.


Number of family changes AA changes, just wondering what's going on.

[aaronc879]

It's risky at best. It is possible that you could retire successfully but probably less than 50%. There are so many factors to consider. ACA may not exist in 5 years let alone 20 years. If you and wife are in your 50's or early 60's and there is no ACA you could be paying $12K/yr just in premiums and if one or both of you are sick or injured you could double that number. My parents hit their $12,000 OOP most years in addition to paying around $8K in premiums. If your desire is to spend time with your kids while they are young then I think you are good thru their college years. However you need to be willing to go back to work in your 50's or 60's if the market or your expenses don't go as planned. No matter what you currently get paid or what your degree is, after 15+ years with no job you will be looking at a job that pays under $15/hr in todays dollars. Are you willing to take the chance that you and/or your wife have to work that kind of job later in life? Only you can make that choice.

[Delawaredave5]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo The condition is commonly referred to as laziness. Sounds like you are unique, just like the rest of us. You don't have the money to retire now without placing your family in a precarious financial situation, something I wouldn't do to my children if I had other options. Suck it up and keep working. Oh, one last question - you wouldn't be trolling us, would you?

Exactly!

[RunningBum]

And then there's http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...00k-86893.html

Quote:

I am 37 yr old and hope to retire by 50. I have about 300K of cash sitting in my checking account. Another 100K in my 401k (invested in vanguard retire-by-2045 plan). That's all my net worth. I am thinking about investing the 300k like below, please critique and help me find the best strategy. 100K in CA Muni bonds; specifically MUC ticker 100K in Lending Club 100K hold tight in checking account (not sure what else is a better safe haven) for the stock market to go down or home prices to come down. Home buying is only as an investment, not interested in it as an "american dream". Please let me know what you guys think - Sam

So the OP has greatly changed investment strategies twice in just over a year, but is telling us how bulletproof the current strategy is. Right.

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunningBum And then there's http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...00k-86893.html So the OP has greatly changed investment strategies twice in just over a year, but is telling us how bulletproof the current strategy is. Right.

Someone is bored...that's my take...not much of life putting fake stuff on a forum ….I'm guessing we won't hear anything more.

[njhowie]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunningBum How sure are you of those numbers? I don't even see clothes for growing kids on here, or is putting clothes on your kids "entertainment". HI is probably right because you'll qualify for a subsidy, but what happens if that goes away? Going back to December... http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ids-89814.html You've gone from looking to retire with perhaps $2M and contemplating leaving the kids $1M to squashing them in the same bedroom and not doing anything but free activities (which I think are a lot rarer in schools these days). What happened in these 7 months? My opinion? I think you're being selfish and lazy, and taking a huge risk. You don't have any buffer that I see to weather a downturn. Sure, the plan has a possibility of working, if you're lucky, and basically spend very little money to entertain you and your family.

Agreed 100%. I remembered this thread from December and likewise checked those posts (before I saw this post of yours).

Let's remember - OP is earning $280,000 a year today and yet has "only" amassed $650k (up from $550k 7 months ago).

Back in December, the "ideal" time to FIRE was in 10 to 15 years.

Being tired of working at 38 with a family of 4 and only $650k saved does not cut it in my book.

Quote:

Vanguard Technology Fund (VGT): 200k Vanguard Mega Cap Growth Fund: 50k Amazon Stock: 50k Google Stock: 60k Facebook Stock: 40k Lending Club: 50k

Talk about a risky portfolio! That $450k can fall 25% quite easily.

More importantly, in the 7 months, what was previously a more conservative portfolio (shown below) is now heavily technology oriented and significantly higher risk:

Quote:

Investments (Vanguard total stock market index): 350K

The budget laid out is unrealistic in many ways. Most of the amounts likely need to be raised at least 50%. I see nothing for transportation - whether car/gas/insurance or public transportation. A cross country move for the family and belongings will be another $5k to $10k.

Further, making reliable Social Security calculations today to begin taking payouts in 25 years is also extremely risky.

My belief is that retiring now on the $650k will likely see it completely wiped out well before Social Security kicks in.

Take a week long vacation to recharge, pull up your big boy pants, and milk that $280k job for all it's worth, saving as much as you can for as long as you can. Stick with it another 5 years to the point where you are comfortably over $1M and then revisit. If you still feel the same, you'll be in a much better position financially.

Lastly, have you discussed any of this with your spouse/family? I have to believe they wouldn't be without a fair degree of uneasiness about your idea.

[griffithee]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill55AZ I am ex navy nuke as well, SSN590.

I think there might be a few of us. EM2 here. Surface nuke. That was before I went to the dark side and was a chop on SSN699. Was at COMSUBLANT, and retired from COMSUBPAC.

[Dawg52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo Similar, maybe. However I don't recall you retiring in your 30's with a too small egg in your nest and a couple of children you plan on bringing up in a life near the poverty level. Or is my recollector on the fritz again?

I did recommend working another 5 years or so. Even the lazy has to face reality.

[free2020]

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnrealizedPotential 200K in Vanguard Technology fund? No. Just no. You really need to rethink that. In a downturn I strongly suspect that will be hit hard. If I am right , how will your nest egg look then? You need to consider the possible downside of an investment, not just the possible upside. If you really like it, I wouldn't put more than 50k in it. But that's just my opinion. It's your money, but I certainly wouldn't put 200K in ANY technology fund offered by any investment company.

+1
Given the plan on living off your nest egg for the rest of your life, and given that many of the tech names today won’t be the same names 10, 20, 30 or more years, I wouldn’t.

More than the fund itself I would be freaking out owning any of the FANG stocks. There’s nothing carved in stone about the longevity of those, despite how dominant they are in the collective consciousness of us all. Just think of GDPR; It just landed on the shores of California this week. Personally I would have exactly ZERO in speculative stocks.

I will go ahead and make the assumption that your nest egg got this big by investments in technology. If that’s true, I would think that your biggest risk to retiring early and staying retired is likely your own past success. Not so much the market or the economy or something else. It’s what’s between my ears! Please feel free to ignore this if I am off base.

[gstillson]

I would not do it with kids, but it isn't an impossible feat to retire on $650k.

What about retiring on $200k?

[exnavynuke]

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffithee I think there might be a few of us. EM2 here. Surface nuke. That was before I went to the dark side and was a chop on SSN699. Was at COMSUBLANT, and retired from COMSUBPAC.

Yeah, I think a few others have commented on my username similarly in the past. SSBN 738 and a couple shore tours here (SPU at NPTU BS and TRF KB).

[RunningBum]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ivinsfan Someone is bored...that's my take...not much of life putting fake stuff on a forum ….I'm guessing we won't hear anything more.

I'm mildly entertained, and the basic story hasn't really changed, even if the strategy has. A year is a long time to play out a fake story. It's a lot better than that "woe is me" guy from MN who got laid off from a govt job in DC, whatever shall he do? And then a week or two later he wins a lottery or something like that. I just wonder if the OP has ADD or something like that--bored with working, constantly changing portfolio and goals, and so on.

[corn18]

I used to fly around with nukes, does that qualify me for the navynuke club? I did a summer cruise on the Rickover. That was awesome.

[OldShooter]

@firenow, I don't think you came here for opinions. I think you came here looking for cheerleaders to validate your strategy. You are not getting that for good reason: Your idea is beyond crazy, but people are trying to be a little polite so they aren't saying that so directly.

Proof of my theory is that whenever someone points out problems with your plan, your reaction is to argue with them and insist that it is sound. Fine. You think it is sound. Go ahead and gamble with your kids' and your wife's lives. It's a free country. But you will not find a consensus of cheerleaders here.

I am not going to pick apart all of your ideas, but they all seem to be based on best-case assumptions and very naive understanding of almost everything (like investments). I will tell you my experience: Life is not best-case, even usually. And the worst-case you can imagine is not the worst case. The worst case is a black swan that you can't even conceive of right now. Black swans are like that.

But, hey the plan might work. The Pope may start ordaining women. But neither is very likely and that is what people here are trying to tell you.

[ivinsfan]

Oldshooter that's the classic sign of a troll, posting off the wall ideas asking for opinions and telling everyone how wrong they are.