Are the higher powers telling me something?
- Thread starter StuckinCT
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Yes this is my experience as well. If you look at the Zillow home price index charts for SW CT suburban towns, they are down about 15-25%. Coastal communities on the rails have fared slightly better, but they are also down.
And yes, to your point on the higher end homes, our house was a higher end home in the back country when we bought it in our town, so those homes are down 40% or 50% from the peak. We actually rented in 2008 and bought in 2010 thinking we were geniuses buying 10-15% off, little did we know that real estate would be in for a ten year decline.
With a few exceptions, CT real estate has been in decline for the last decade, in places like Hartford, Groton, New Haven as well and in my opinion it has to do with taxes being too high for the services, the commuting experience and the competition with Boston, NYC and lower tax areas such as TX, TN, NC, SC, FL etc.
If they fix our state pension system, improve infrastructure and get rid of all the business taxes, including the 10% corporate surcharge chasing Inc. out of state, things will improve in CT, but with a union boss as house speaker, not much is going to change in CT despite the best intentions of our governor. Our former assembly men's last names were/are Looney and Sharkey, I can not think of more appropriate names!
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SecretlyFI
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I would keep looking around for other acceptable places to live, with good school districts both for your kids to attend and your wife to teach in. Might not want to count on CT providing platinum healthcare in the future. I saw a headline their state pension is the worst funded in the country. Probably not a great bet to start in a state job in that case.
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aja8888
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I went to college in New Haven in the 1970's and worked in the Naugatuck Valley towns (Waterbury, Ansonia, Seymour, Bridgeport, etc) that were historically manufacturing. Some plants were there since the early 1900's and employed many thousands. All those plants are gone, mosty boarded up or torn down. With the loss of the manufacturing base, the towns have lost a lot of tax revenue. Consequently, the issues are now coming to the front in CT. For instance, the largest employer in Waterbury, town of 105,000, is the city. 
I still have a sister there, but everyone else in my family moved on. Both she and her husband lost their jobs 20 years ago when things started to fall apart and now they exist on SS and a small pension. I built a house in Southbury in 1976 and sold it in the early 1980's when we left.
I still have a sister there, but everyone else in my family moved on. Both she and her husband lost their jobs 20 years ago when things started to fall apart and now they exist on SS and a small pension. I built a house in Southbury in 1976 and sold it in the early 1980's when we left.
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I guess I must live in a different Connecticut. The mill rate in my town is lower for this coming year than it was for 2010 (27.71 versus 28.89). The tax is higher of course, because the assessed value has gone up. And as far as state income tax, the marginal rate for $500k+ in 2010 was 6.7%. In 2019, it is 6.9%. So if you made $600k, you'd pay a whole $200 more in state income tax in 2019 than you would have in 2010. Hardly catastrophic.
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pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Stuck, get off the fence and rip off the bandaid.
nativenewenglander
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One of my friends retired at 40, he and his wife worked in finance in NYC. They moved to Wellesley, MA where their children go to school. He says the schools there is as good as any private schools, so they chose that town over others. The homes are not inexpensive, but values are increasing. I have no idea what my friend and his wife's resources are, but they live there and in my former town in NH where their kids ski race in winter. You certainly have the financial resources to live well in MA, plus there are many good schools your wife could attend to pursue her degree.A year ago firecalc was showing 96% spending $22k a month living in one of the more expensive areas of the country outside NYC.
Today firecalc has us firmly at 100%, and the job is adding a lot of unnecessary stress. I am 48, wife is 38 w/ three kids 10, 8 and 6. Have a $1.3mm house w/ $500k mortgage, $7.85mm in investments for retirement mostly non qualified, $1.4mm for education and total net worth just over $10mm.
We can't sell our house as our real estate market is frozen due to high property and local taxes, we paid $1.7mm and have updated kitchen etc.
My wife is currently pursuing her masters degree to become a 3rd grade teacher which she hopes to complete in two years. She is a pre-school teacher now and runs the book fair, library auction etc in our town so she is well connected. This has been a lifelong dream and now that the kids are a little older, it is doable.
If she teaches in the public schools, it would provide platinum health care and her income would pad our passive income of $250k- we spend $260k roughly with tax. We also are quitting our country club with a huge new assessment to go to a smaller club with just racquets / pool.
This could be the third leg of the stool w/ healthcare, extra income, a potential pension and ample time off to travel.
I am wondering if I should wait until she gets hired or if I should just call it quits? The club thing sort of just happened and so did the teacher pursuit. I think the stress is effecting my health - luckily I exercise a lot to manage it and I eat relatively well, but I am sacred to retire at 48. The other concern is what if my kids need to go to private school, so much time until they are out of the nest!
Wondering what others would do in my situation..
Bing Crosby opened Holiday Inn in CT to get away from it
Wow. So even Massachusetts is a tax refuge compared to The Nutmeg State?
Again, wow.
Wow. So even Massachusetts is a tax refuge compared to The Nutmeg State?
Again, wow.
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Massachusetts state income tax is flat 5.1%. Connecticut is graduated up to 6.99% at $1 million (MFJ). If you make less than $211,000 per year, Connecticut's income tax will be lower.
The mill rate in Wellesley MA is 11.57 on an averaged assessed value of approximately $1.3 million, for an average tax bill of $15041 per year. The average assessed value here in my town in CT is about $202,000 and the mill rate is 27.71, for an average property tax bill of about $5600 per year.
I wouldn't consider Wellesley, MA to be a tax refuge compared to CT
Ah ah, Mr Wilson, ah ah Mr Heath
The difference in assessments (1.3M vs 202k) is pretty steep and overwhelms the difference in millage rates. Are these comparable properties, i.e., is one a 6500 sqft 6BR with 3 car garage on 2 acres, while the other is 1800 sqft 4 BR split level on 1/3 acre?
I don't live there so the only data available is what I read on these pages.
The difference in assessments (1.3M vs 202k) is pretty steep and overwhelms the difference in millage rates. Are these comparable properties, i.e., is one a 6500 sqft 6BR with 3 car garage on 2 acres, while the other is 1800 sqft 4 BR split level on 1/3 acre?
I don't live there so the only data available is what I read on these pages.
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My experience over the past 30 years is that when a reassessment comes every 5 years, the mill rate drops but the assessed value goes up and the actual tax paid remains roughly the same, because that's the amount it costs to run the town and schools (about a 50/50 split). The amount of actual tax almost always increases at about the rate of inflation. If there were a widespread and long lasting plunge in the market, I would expect assessed values to drop, but the mill rates to go up to compensate, because, again, it costs a certain amount to run the town. However, that has never happened in my town.
As between CT towns, the ones with more expensive houses generally have lower mill rates and towns with less expensive houses have higher mill rates. Yes, if I had better data it would enable a better head to head comparison. But the average tax bill is the average tax bill. If I move from the average house in Milford CT to the average house in Wellesley MA, my property tax bill will go up (and so would my mortage payments if I had a mortgage).
I think that some school regionalization would be good for CT. There are many smaller towns that have one small elementary school, one small middle school and one small high school, but they have the complete administrative apparatus of a larger school system, with a superintendent of schools, assistant superintendent, curriculum coordinators, etc. Everyone would save money if they combined forces with the small town next door. However, I don't think that will ever happen, because the 169 towns and cities in CT have very strong local powers and jealously guard them.
In any event, it has become sadly popular for certain Connecticut residents to portray our state as some dystopian tax-hell. The actual numbers say it is not. As I noted earlier, for a $211k income MFJ, the state tax in CT and MA is the same. At that income level, NY is about 20% higher. We are very competitive with neighboring states in terms of income and property tax. Sales tax in CT is 6.35%, in MA is 6.25%, in NY is 8.48% (state + local).
Houses in Wellesley are quite expensive. Housing prices are comparable to coastal towns in FF county in CT, with smaller lot size compared to what OP is used to. RE tax burden is almost as high (because of higher assessment value) and state income tax is not significantly better than CT. You also tend to get longer winters and a lot more snow. Unless you work near Boston or planning to have children go to private schools near boston, it is hard to consider moving there.
In terms of state tax burden, NY allows a lot more deductions than CT. It is kind of hard to make a direct comparison without going through details in individual cases. I think I read somewhere that NY and CT ranked the top two in the country in terms of tax burden, and the difference between the two is minuscule.
NY, CT, and NJ are the highest taxed states in the U.S.- N.J. may have moved ahead of CT this year but as of last year CT was second, and we have the latest tax amnesty day of any state, the number of days it takes to pay your taxes- we are in late May I believe.
The mass exodus out of Connecticut and our real estate market is common knowledge. Every county has seen population declines over the last decade except Fairfield County which is positive due Danbury's boom. Numerous articles in Bloomberg, WSJ and others on this. Just google "Connecticut Real Estate Article" Plenty to read!
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CT Demographics
Population 2018 = 3,572,665
Population 2010 = 3,577,845
= decline of 5,180 = -0.14% total over 8 years.
fewer people, yes, but hardly a "mass exodus".
https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/Depar...pulation/Town-Pop/pop_towns2018pdf.pdf?la=en\
The last change to CT income tax rates was in 2015, when they added two brackets above the then maximum 6.5% rate. To wit: 6.9% for income $500k - 1 million and 6.99% for over $1 million. So if you made exactly $1 million, your state income taxes increased by $2000. (If you made $2 million, your taxes increased by $6900). If I were pulling in a million bucks a year, $2k in additional income tax is unlikely to prompt me to migrate, let alone spark a mass exodus of my fellow Nutmeggers.
https://www.cga.ct.gov/2018/rpt/pdf/2018-R-0058.pdf
I don't know exactly where you live. But the inland Fairfield County towns, such as Easton and Weston, have indeed been suffering a down real estate market. Among other factors, they have no business or industry, so residential properties carry the full load of the local property taxes. Another factor is that they generally have really large and expensive houses on substantial lots, and people seem to be turning away from that in general. I've always heard that real estate is very local. Your experience can't be expanded to the entire state of Connecticut.
Zillow shows, for the whole state, increasing median value and decreasing time on the market - two characteristics of a healthy real estate market.
https://www.zillow.com/ct/home-values/
Population 2018 = 3,572,665
Population 2010 = 3,577,845
= decline of 5,180 = -0.14% total over 8 years.
fewer people, yes, but hardly a "mass exodus".
https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/Depar...pulation/Town-Pop/pop_towns2018pdf.pdf?la=en\
The last change to CT income tax rates was in 2015, when they added two brackets above the then maximum 6.5% rate. To wit: 6.9% for income $500k - 1 million and 6.99% for over $1 million. So if you made exactly $1 million, your state income taxes increased by $2000. (If you made $2 million, your taxes increased by $6900). If I were pulling in a million bucks a year, $2k in additional income tax is unlikely to prompt me to migrate, let alone spark a mass exodus of my fellow Nutmeggers.
https://www.cga.ct.gov/2018/rpt/pdf/2018-R-0058.pdf
I don't know exactly where you live. But the inland Fairfield County towns, such as Easton and Weston, have indeed been suffering a down real estate market. Among other factors, they have no business or industry, so residential properties carry the full load of the local property taxes. Another factor is that they generally have really large and expensive houses on substantial lots, and people seem to be turning away from that in general. I've always heard that real estate is very local. Your experience can't be expanded to the entire state of Connecticut.
Zillow shows, for the whole state, increasing median value and decreasing time on the market - two characteristics of a healthy real estate market.
https://www.zillow.com/ct/home-values/
Yes, as you point out, populations have declined in CT since 2010, while most other states have seen their populations expand.
In terms of taxes in CT, as I stated before, things like the business entity tax, the 10% corporate tax surcharge, the tax on foreign corporate income and most of all, astronomically high property taxes especially in places like Hartford and New Haven with mil rates above 70 due to an insufficient property tax base (not to mention towns like Weston & Easton where the average property tax is between $15 and $20k). It's death by a thousand cuts in terms of taxes in CT, the income tax though high, is not the only problem. But the core of the problem is how all of that revenue has been spent shoring up the state pension and pie-in-the-sky union contracts with guaranteed salary increases, no layoff clauses and platinum healthcare through 2027 when spending should have been cut and revenue should have been used for other things like transportation. That's why GE, UTX, Hubbell, Alexion, and Aetna are leaving. Cigna has recently threatened to leave over our state's stance on healthcare. Name one major corporation to move to establish its headquarters in CT the last decade.
The zillow thread you pasted shows at best a flat real estate market overall since 2010. The Governor recently cited some improved housing numbers from an organization called the Warren Group www.thewarrengroup.com.
When you read the report, numbers are lagging behind last year. If you sift through the single family home data on the Warren Group website, as a state we are down 10% from the peak. Fairfield County is down more than this as I stated previously.
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“Tax exodus” seems to be a conclusion in search of supporting data. US Census data (here) shows no such change. The change in CT population is too small to be of any significance. My own view is boomer retirements are the leading cause of change in state populations, and this will continue.
capjak
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On occasion, it may be useful to look at states through the same lens that we view nations. Connecticut is old, rich, small, and full with people. It could be described as a "mature economy" versus an "emerging market", like most Western European countries. And the demographic trends are likely to be similar.
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Moving, IMHO, is a very personal thing.
Regarding moving, there seem to be a number of factors, such as:
1) inertia - an object at rest tends to remain at rest;
2) familiarity - friends/family/medical care (these are biggies)
3) neighborhood deterioration (or gentrification) - deterioration can get to the extent that a person no longer feels safe - which is a huge motivator;
4) lifestyle
5) COL - Which includes taxes (how does this effect your life style, the ability to live in a home you like, travel, help your family, gift to charities, or if you are Robbie order King Crab legs.)
6) political preferences
I am a life-long New Yorker, and there are things that I still love about NY; my neighborhood is "cute," we have access to parks and beaches, healthcare is accessible; conversely traffic can be awful; the taxes (property (general/school), income, sales, surcharges) we have been paying in some instances to do seem to have been fairly imposed and vastly exceed the benefits/services received. The cost of living is HIGH. These are factors.
DH, who is not a native New Yorker, does not have the same emotional attachment as I do to the State.
I would like to experience a year in New York without working to see how it goes . . .
Regarding moving, there seem to be a number of factors, such as:
1) inertia - an object at rest tends to remain at rest;
2) familiarity - friends/family/medical care (these are biggies)
3) neighborhood deterioration (or gentrification) - deterioration can get to the extent that a person no longer feels safe - which is a huge motivator;
4) lifestyle
5) COL - Which includes taxes (how does this effect your life style, the ability to live in a home you like, travel, help your family, gift to charities, or if you are Robbie order King Crab legs.)
6) political preferences
I am a life-long New Yorker, and there are things that I still love about NY; my neighborhood is "cute," we have access to parks and beaches, healthcare is accessible; conversely traffic can be awful; the taxes (property (general/school), income, sales, surcharges) we have been paying in some instances to do seem to have been fairly imposed and vastly exceed the benefits/services received. The cost of living is HIGH. These are factors.
DH, who is not a native New Yorker, does not have the same emotional attachment as I do to the State.
I would like to experience a year in New York without working to see how it goes . . .
