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Old 10-07-2016, 03:32 PM   #21
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$180k/year, "hardly working - 30 hours/week", I think I could hold our for a few more years!
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Old 10-07-2016, 07:29 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Pilot2013 View Post
$180k/year, "hardly working - 30 hours/week", I think I could hold our for a few more years!
Yep, tough stuff I know , lol ... seriously, so half of me is saying screw it, i'll do it my way and if they fire me, so be it. I have the money. The other half is saying life is so damn short, max it out and go do something that you have passion for and live life to the fullest. What I have now is clearly not it.
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Old 10-07-2016, 07:35 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Cobra9777 View Post
You seem to have too many variables for FIRECalc. I just ran your numbers through cFIREsim and got a success rate of 83%. Your max initial spending for 95% is $119K. $130K gets you to 92%. I made a lot of assumptions based on what you've written, so you should probably run it yourself. I included the mortgage pay off in 10 years, an additional $60K for college in a few years, wife working FT for 2 years, then PT for 4, etc.

A lot of discussion about withdrawal strategy, which is fine. But I'd be focusing as much or more on expense planning. I think you are probably overestimating taxes on the deferred comp and wife's salary, especially after she's back to part time. As pb4uski suggested, you need to run a couple detailed post-ER tax scenarios. I suspect you'll be pleasantly surprised.

Also, you might consider running a cFIREsim scenario with either paying off the mortgage or refinancing to spread it out some, and then decide later. The next 10 years seem to be pretty critical in your case and the house payment is quite large.

I would also suggest some research and planning about how your actual expenses will likely change over time. You seem to be base-lining off your current burn rate, which may be the high-water mark. I know it was for me at 45 with the kids in high school.

After ER we increased spending on travel, discretionary, and health insurance. But overall spending is down due to kids moving out and later graduating, work-related expenses like commuting that naturally went away, and reductions in stuff like cable and insurance that we never had time to pay attention to when working. I also model a flattening profile in later years, which is pretty typical. So just starting with $140K and adjusting for inflation may be too conservative.

I'd say you are probably good to go, but I'd do some more homework on taxes and other expenses.
Wow, great stuff! Thank you!! I like that you discussed your experience when spending after the kids move out. We control our costs pretty well but we always take 2 vacations ... we normally fly to one (5 people) and the other one we drive. Spring Break trip and a summer vacation to cali, maine, or something like that ... it is expensive.

This thread with is such a great example of why this forum is so damn good.
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Old 10-09-2016, 02:08 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by exnavynuke View Post
If you get 5.5% growth, it looks doable. If you get 2.5% growth, it looks tight, but probably doable as well. Of course, that also assumes that you don't increase your spending with inflation.

AgeSpending Growth 5.5%Growth 2.5%Deferred CompWife IncomeBalance 5.5%Balance 2.5%
45     $1,050,000.00$1,050,000.00
46$140,000.00$57,750.00$26,250.00$65,000.00$55,000.00$1,087,750.00$1,056,250.00
47$140,000.00$59,826.25$27,193.75$65,000.00$55,000.00$1,127,576.25$1,063,443.75
48$140,000.00$62,016.69$28,189.41$65,000.00$15,000.00$1,129,592.94$1,031,633.16
49$140,000.00$62,127.61$28,239.82$65,000.00$15,000.00$1,131,720.56$999,872.98
50$140,000.00$62,244.63$28,293.01$65,000.00$15,000.00$1,133,965.19$968,165.99
51$140,000.00$62,368.09$28,349.13$65,000.00$15,000.00$1,136,333.27$936,515.12
52$140,000.00$62,498.33$28,408.33$65,000.00 $1,123,831.60$889,923.46
53$140,000.00$61,810.74$28,095.79$65,000.00 $1,110,642.34$843,019.25
54$140,000.00$61,085.33$27,766.06$65,000.00 $1,096,727.67$795,785.30
55$140,000.00$60,320.02$27,418.19$65,000.00 $1,082,047.69$748,203.50
56$140,000.00$59,512.62$27,051.19  $1,001,560.31$635,254.69
57$140,000.00$55,085.82$25,039.01  $916,646.13$520,293.70
58$140,000.00$50,415.54$22,916.15  $827,061.67$403,209.85
59$140,000.00$45,488.39$20,676.54  $732,550.06$283,886.39
60$140,000.00$40,290.25$18,313.75  $632,840.31$162,200.14
61$140,000.00$34,806.22$15,821.01  $527,646.53$38,021.15
62$140,000.00$29,020.56$13,191.16  $416,667.09-$88,787.69
63$140,000.00$22,916.69$10,416.68  $299,583.78-$218,371.01
64$140,000.00$16,477.11$7,489.59  $176,060.89-$350,881.42
65$140,000.00$9,683.35$4,401.52  $45,744.23-$486,479.89

With 3% inflation in spending, it would get a lot tighter.

AgeSpending + 3% inflationGrowth 5.5%Growth 2.5%Deferred CompWife IncomeBalance 5.5%Balance 2.5%
45     $1,050,000.00$1,050,000.00
46$140,000.00$57,750.00$26,250.00$65,000.00$55,000.00$1,087,750.00$1,056,250.00
47$144,200.00$59,826.25$27,193.75$65,000.00$55,000.00$1,123,376.25$1,059,243.75
48$148,526.00$61,785.69$28,084.41$65,000.00$15,000.00$1,116,635.94$1,018,802.16
49$152,981.78$61,414.98$27,915.90$65,000.00$15,000.00$1,105,069.14$973,736.27
50$157,571.23$60,778.80$27,626.73$65,000.00$15,000.00$1,088,276.71$923,791.77
51$162,298.37$59,855.22$27,206.92$65,000.00$15,000.00$1,065,833.56$868,700.32
52$167,167.32$58,620.85$26,645.84$65,000.00 $1,022,287.08$793,178.83
53$172,182.34$56,225.79$25,557.18$65,000.00 $971,330.53$711,553.67
54$177,347.81$53,423.18$24,283.26$65,000.00 $912,405.90$623,489.12
55$182,668.25$50,182.32$22,810.15$65,000.00 $844,919.98$528,631.02
56$188,148.29$46,470.60$21,123.00  $703,242.28$361,605.73
57$193,792.74$38,678.33$17,581.06  $548,127.87$185,394.05
58$199,606.52$30,147.03$13,703.20  $378,668.38-$509.28
59$205,594.72$20,826.76$9,466.71  $193,900.42-$196,637.29
60$211,762.56$10,664.52$4,847.51  -$7,197.62-$403,552.34
61$218,115.44-$395.87-$179.94  -$225,708.93-$621,847.72
62$224,658.90-$12,413.99-$5,642.72  -$462,781.82-$852,149.35
63$231,398.67-$25,453.00-$11,569.55  -$719,633.49-$1,095,117.56
64$238,340.63-$39,579.84-$17,990.84  -$997,553.96-$1,351,449.03
65$245,490.85-$54,865.47-$24,938.85  -$1,297,910.28-$1,621,878.72

Assuming your spending is estimated high to be conservative (based on what you've posted), I'd say you're in a good position (even if you get reduced growth, you still have plenty in tax deferred accounts that will continue to grow and will be available to supplement your taxable accounts if needed.
I would have adjusted those figures to exclude the house payments of 32k after 10 years - that allows a bit more headroom.
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Old 10-09-2016, 02:12 PM   #25
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Pension - Mine is 45k per year (assuming i leave in next year), non cola, i can get it at 65 years old
Is that the future estimated value or current value (that you assume would inflate)?

If you are currently earning 180k and burning through 140k per annum then you have done incredibly well to build those kind of funds. Is your spending estimate ultra conservative?
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Old 10-09-2016, 06:26 PM   #26
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Is that the future estimated value or current value (that you assume would inflate)?

If you are currently earning 180k and burning through 140k per annum then you have done incredibly well to build those kind of funds. Is your spending estimate ultra conservative?
The 45K, is the value when I'm 65. No increases, no COLA.

My spending the last 4 or so years has been very close to $120K. I put $140K, to account for taxes. Above the 180K was bonuses and options ... which varied based on the year. I do think the $120K spending may be the high water mark given vacations for 5, at least twice per year.

All in all, I do think I'm being conservative. But, not silly .... for instance, I don't have any annual vehicle spending. We tend to buy 3 year old vehicles and hold onto them for a long time (at least 10 years).
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Old 10-10-2016, 02:23 AM   #27
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The 45K, is the value when I'm 65. No increases, no COLA.

My spending the last 4 or so years has been very close to $120K. I put $140K, to account for taxes. Above the 180K was bonuses and options ... which varied based on the year. I do think the $120K spending may be the high water mark given vacations for 5, at least twice per year.

All in all, I do think I'm being conservative. But, not silly .... for instance, I don't have any annual vehicle spending. We tend to buy 3 year old vehicles and hold onto them for a long time (at least 10 years).
My conclusion is that firstly, you have a lot of money BUT over the next 20 years you will burn through a substantial proportion of that and there is not a lot of buffer for potentially unknown events or extended downturns. Psychologically that might be tough.

My other question would be whether you have the chance to go back to work should the numbers not work? Will your skills remain relevant.

Personally I would be tempted to delay 4-5 years if you want to really go with a clear mind.
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Old 10-10-2016, 06:51 AM   #28
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My conclusion is that firstly, you have a lot of money BUT over the next 20 years you will burn through a substantial proportion of that and there is not a lot of buffer for potentially unknown events or extended downturns. Psychologically that might be tough.

My other question would be whether you have the chance to go back to work should the numbers not work? Will your skills remain relevant.

Personally I would be tempted to delay 4-5 years if you want to really go with a clear mind.
I don't think i can do 4 or 5 more years. I do think i can / would cut my spending during the next several years if there was a market downturn or or if my assumptions look less certain near term. I think spending down to 80 or 90K is pretty realistic, if needed. To your point, it might be mentally tough to do that, especially if its during the next few years.

Skills transferable? Yes, i think some of them but not at my current pay rate. I think i could get a job a pretty quick over the next couple years ... but i'm not sure if that's the case 10 years from now. And that does make me nervous.
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Old 10-10-2016, 07:06 AM   #29
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Greenlight - does your plan include possible expenses or an alternate plan if one or more of your children don't "launch" after college? For example, if we have a downturn in the economy and they cannot find a decent job.

This was a big concern of mine as it had a relatively large impact on my retirement expenses (another person covered by food, clothing, insurance, etc). My retirement coincided with my last child graduating and being hired in a good paying job. This eliminated a lot of uncertainty / financial stress for my retirement.
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Old 10-10-2016, 07:09 AM   #30
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I think i could get a job a pretty quick over the next couple years ... but i'm not sure if that's the case 10 years from now. And that does make me nervous.
...and therein lies the key conundrum for all of us which will be a very personal decision. How much comfort / buffer do we need to feel truly happy versus the joy of not working any more.

Personally I don't think its necessarily a binary decision i.e. do I have enough or not but maybe you can find a part time gig (working a couple of days a month) which gives you a bit of income but also keeps your skills relevant.

Whatever happens - its nice to have the choice.
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Old 10-10-2016, 10:22 AM   #31
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Greenlight - does your plan include possible expenses or an alternate plan if one or more of your children don't "launch" after college? For example, if we have a downturn in the economy and they cannot find a decent job.

This was a big concern of mine as it had a relatively large impact on my retirement expenses (another person covered by food, clothing, insurance, etc). My retirement coincided with my last child graduating and being hired in a good paying job. This eliminated a lot of uncertainty / financial stress for my retirement.
No, I haven't planned financially for that type of thing. If that was to happen, my house would be open and yes I would incur extra food but I don't look at it as a big expense. I guess since I'm holding my current rate of spending the same as today, I'm not assuming that I would have any incremental costs.

I do see why one would go forward with that type of plan. A kid or two at home a couple years after college would have costs.
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