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Old 10-02-2016, 08:25 PM   #1
Confused about dryer sheets
 
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Done lurking...Ready to get in the game!

Hi All...another of those long time lurkers and would like the wise insight from all. Here are the details

- 59 years old. $770K in 401K, $128k in Roth, $74k between taxable accounts and emergency funds.
- Contributing $45k annually between my cont., spouse and company match.
- Zero debt (yes, even the house)
- $183k in grandfathered pension. Can collect LS or ~$900/math in a fixed annuity.
- Spending tracked for 6 mths now at $6200/mth. Expect some expenses will drop in retirement (charitable giving,
IRA contributions, some discretionary categories). Believe $5,000/mth will be reasonable budget.
- have run all the calculators (Firecalc, Fidelity, Home grown spreadsheet) and all project full funding out to 90 yrs (me) and
92(spouse). Assuming 3.5% inflation and 4% investment return.
- wife and I have $160k LTC insurance growing 3% per yr
- Planning 66.5 yrs for SS and assuming 75% of est benefit to account for future risk.
- Can get company subsidized HC at $300/person at 60. Budgeting $1k/mth for premiums + out of pocket.

Considering retirement soon.

Am I crazy? What am I missing?
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Old 10-03-2016, 07:05 AM   #2
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Welcome Buckle; Looks like you're there, or nearly so. One thought though, 90 is a ripe old age, but if it were me, I would be using a higher end age, of at least 95. Have you run your numbers using that age, 100. Have you calculated what your SWR will be prior to and then after you take SS?


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Old 10-03-2016, 11:18 AM   #3
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Welcome,

I also plan to run out to age 102. With both DW and myself it seems prudent. I suspect that many on this forum, who are currently healthy, will live past the "national average".

Tracking actual expenses is an excellent way to get a handle on retirement readiness. This allowed me to get out much earlier than I originally planned for.

-gauss
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Old 10-03-2016, 11:21 AM   #4
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What does FIRECALC say?
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:57 PM   #5
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Welcome to the forum, and agreed it seems you're there or nearly so. If you haven't already seen this, here's a checklist to go over:

Some Important Questions to Answer Before Asking - Can I Retire?
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Old 10-03-2016, 06:24 PM   #6
Confused about dryer sheets
 
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Fire calc has me at "0" failures planning out to 95.
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Old 10-03-2016, 06:33 PM   #7
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enjoy your retirement
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Old 10-04-2016, 07:19 AM   #8
Confused about dryer sheets
 
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I'm curious how you included Social Security. I also use the 75 percent estimate, but I only input one (the highest) since when one of you dies there is that automatic reduction in income. Would your results change if you weren't including both? I know mine does, and then if you are widowed you also have higher taxes on the same income. How do people on the forum handle this? I did try out a calculator that had stop/start dates for SS and I would play with entering the second SS for reduced years but that of course is a guessing game in itself.
Need to lay out some numbers myself for you guys! Been lurking a few years getting educated! Thanks for the wealth of info that is here!


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Old 10-04-2016, 08:03 AM   #9
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Not crazy at all and looks good to go to me with what information you have provided.

Just a few thoughts, any children, aging parents, etc. that might fit into the equation down the line ?
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Old 10-04-2016, 10:00 AM   #10
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Old 10-04-2016, 11:50 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by volfan View Post
I'm curious how you included Social Security. I also use the 75 percent estimate, but I only input one (the highest) since when one of you dies there is that automatic reduction in income. Would your results change if you weren't including both? I know mine does, and then if you are widowed you also have higher taxes on the same income. How do people on the forum handle this? I did try out a calculator that had stop/start dates for SS and I would play with entering the second SS for reduced years but that of course is a guessing game in itself.
Need to lay out some numbers myself for you guys! Been lurking a few years getting educated! Thanks for the wealth of info that is here!


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This is a huge issue for us since we were a career dual earner couple.

I have discounted by about a 1/3 as described above but I have always done the analysis based on BOTH SS checks. We are also planning to defer to age 70 to draw. For now, the main way that I address this is to have significant robustness in our current plan (ie 1-2% wr)

-gauss
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Old 10-04-2016, 12:32 PM   #12
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Welcome.

Regarding planning to 100. It's probably a good idea (I did it too) but I now realize after being retired for almost 5 years that hell will freeze over before I see 100. My adjusted target age is now 90, and that is as a best case. I am in a real sense, betting on it. Actually, mid 80's is more likely but I'm adjusting my spend rate for 90 for both the DW and I. That realization has helped make my earlier years in retirement much more enjoyable while I still can (and maybe sloppy in my spending). YMMV
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Old 10-04-2016, 08:50 PM   #13
Confused about dryer sheets
 
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Volvan...I include the spouse assuming spousal benefit (not a huge earnings history there). I do discount the
Spousal benefit by 75% as well.

I recognize the longevity risk and planning for the upside as a contingency. I do believe 90 is more realistic for me
And 92 for spouse. I am using the constant spending model however in all reality, after 80, would expect
Spending to taper off to some degree.

As far as other obligations...all parents are deceased. Do expect some level of support to our son (aspergers) however
He is becoming self-sufficient.
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Old 10-09-2016, 08:43 AM   #14
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Congrats Buckleyrw your numbers look good. My comment on the target age is that watching my parents age you should definitely reduce expected spending in the 80s and beyond. I think the approach to recognize this helps you plan to enjoy your money in the younger years.


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Old 10-09-2016, 07:15 PM   #15
Confused about dryer sheets
 
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Thx Rothman.mmi do expect spending to curtail beyond 80. I've generally left it flat just to hedge against the unknown.
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