Down to near term planning now

[CH]

Just to be clear, I do not use a 2% average return. I haircut the historical average return for my AA by 2% (from ~7.5% to 5.5%) in the deterministic analysis. I also look at Financial Engines.

Thanks for the clarification.

 

[CH]

CJ, the FIRECalc link I provided above gives a description of how the program works. Give it a read and see if you still maintain it uses Monte Carlo...

I'll give it a look in the near future.

 

[nun]

Nun,

Thanks for the encouraging comments on my situation.

I thought about responding with some remarks on socialized medicine, but I don't think this is the place to have that debate. I recognize there are different views with people who are passionate on both sides and it is not an easy problem to solve.

Agreed.

To prepare for my ER I have been tracking my expenses with an iPhone app. Whenever I spend or pay a bill it gets entered immediately. I now know my major expenses and I'm confident that I can produce that from post ER sources.

 

[CH]

CJ, the FIRECalc link I provided above gives a description of how the program works. Give it a read and see if you still maintain it uses Monte Carlo...

I read the link and agree FIRECalc does not use Monte Carlo analysis and appears to be, as claimed, a different kind of retirement planner. Amazing that running the numbers for my situation, I get the exact same results as Financial Engines. Thanks for educating me.

 

[CH]

Thanks for giving me this insight. Having just looked at Firecalc briefly, I did not pick up on that nuance. I'd have to look at Firecalc a little more to make any meaningful comment. What I do know is Monte Carlo analysis is far superior for projecting retirement readiness than using an approach like Quicken, where you use a historical return of X% and project it forward.

I'll post a comment on this at a future date, although it may be a while until I have the time...vacation is over and back to work tomorrow.

pB,

I read the link on how FIRECalc works and agree you are correct.