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Re: Hey y'all
Old 10-01-2006, 06:33 PM   #21
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Re: Hey y'all

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Of course it's risky. And what's worse is that nobody can calculate how risky it is.

Here's the wacky way I look at ER:

1) I assume it is an irreversible decision. I.e., I am basically making myself unemployable by leaving the rat race.

2) I am asking my nest egg to pay me wages for a lonnnng time. Probably 50 years. Possibly longer.

3) In 50 years, the world will look nothing like it does today. Very few assumptions will last 50 years. Most of the companies you invest in today will probably be gone in 50 years. Will the US still be a superpower in 50 years? No idea.

4) Leaving the security of a job (and perhaps employability) requires a level of comfort that your portfolio will survive. To me, at a minimum, that means surviving worst-case historical sequences. I don't know why people are comfortable with "95%" survivability. In 50 years, a *lot* can happen. I want 100% historical survival + an extra margin of safety. And that means looking at sequences like Japan-1990 as well as US performance.

But that's just me.
Hey wab! Good post. Opposite of my system. I never thought I needed
anything to ER other than what's between my ears. I don't give a rat's rear end about that other stuff. Truly, I never think about it.

But, that's just me .

JG
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Re: Hey y'all
Old 10-01-2006, 06:35 PM   #22
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Re: Hey y'all

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Maybe you should ask your wife again.

Or, considering the subject, maybe not.
No can do as DW is history. Anyway, letting her anywhere
near my PC always caused trouble.

JG
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Re: Hey y'all
Old 10-01-2006, 06:59 PM   #23
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Re: Hey y'all

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Of course it's risky. And what's worse is that nobody can calculate how risky it is.
Here's the wacky way I look at ER:
1) I assume it is an irreversible decision. I.e., I am basically making myself unemployable by leaving the rat race.
2) I am asking my nest egg to pay me wages for a lonnnng time. Probably 50 years. Possibly longer.
3) In 50 years, the world will look nothing like it does today. Very few assumptions will last 50 years. Most of the companies you invest in today will probably be gone in 50 years. Will the US still be a superpower in 50 years? No idea.
4) Leaving the security of a job (and perhaps employability) requires a level of comfort that your portfolio will survive. To me, at a minimum, that means surviving worst-case historical sequences. I don't know why people are comfortable with "95%" survivability. In 50 years, a *lot* can happen. I want 100% historical survival + an extra margin of safety. And that means looking at sequences like Japan-1990 as well as US performance.
But that's just me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
I say this with all due respect: you people are nuts.
Maybe it is a mental disease of the wealthy and idle to suppose that ER is too risky for anyone else to do?
Geez, Wab, I figure that as long as you have an eBay account and a Dell script you'll always be able to generate enough income for your purposes. "Work Less, Live More" should work really well for the degree of automation you presumably have working for you.

You're not investing it all in Treasuries & CDs, are you? Because investing at that level of comfort is one thing when interest rates are 6-7%, and riding it through some of the lowest interest rates in history is quite another. I think anything over 80% is beyond FIRECalc's abilities to measure meaninfully (or any calculator's ability, for that matter) and being able to tighten the spending as necessary is more than enough margin to make up the remaining 20%. Well, that along with shotgun shells, MREs, and gold bullion.

I guess people have to choose between a hypothetical level of ER discomfort and a very real level of work discomfort. One of them is far less hazardous to your health, and I'm happy with my choice. I just hope I do have to live with the consequences of my decision for at least another five decades...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr._johngalt
No can do as DW is history. Anyway, letting her anywhere near my PC always caused trouble.
JG
I'm having trouble with your concept of "trouble". Which of these was the root cause of your "trouble":
- your decision to divorce her when she couldn't (wouldn't?) pay your bills anymore,
- your decision to leave yourself logged into this board when you walked away from your PC,
- your inability to appreciate the consequences of either of the above decisions,
- the possibility of further accusations of domestic violence, or
- the fact that she's more impressed by TH than she's impressed by you?
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Re: Hey y'all
Old 10-01-2006, 07:34 PM   #24
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Re: Hey y'all

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
.
I'm having trouble with your concept of "trouble". Which of these was the root cause of your "trouble":
- your decision to divorce her when she couldn't (wouldn't?) pay your bills anymore,
- your decision to leave yourself logged into this board when you walked away from your PC,
- your inability to appreciate the consequences of either of the above decisions,
- the possibility of further accusations of domestic violence, or
- the fact that she's more impressed by TH than she's impressed by you?
Not worthy of a response. Ask a real question and I'll be happy to answer it, but have some facts first.

JG
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Re: Hey y'all
Old 10-01-2006, 08:14 PM   #25
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Re: Hey y'all

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr._johngalt
Not worthy of a response. Ask a real question and I'll be happy to answer it, but have some facts first.

JG
Good point-- the only facts we seem to have to work with so far are the ones that have come from your ex-spouse.

Here's a real question: What's your response to her remarks in the PM she sent to TH? Let me know if you need excerpts to refresh your memory; I'm sure he'll be happy to supply them.
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Re: Hey y'all
Old 10-02-2006, 06:24 AM   #26
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Re: Hey y'all

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Good point-- the only facts we seem to have to work with so far are the ones that have come from your ex-spouse.

Here's a real question: What's your response to her remarks in the PM she sent to TH? Let me know if you need excerpts to refresh your memory; I'm sure he'll be happy to supply them.
Not sure that is a "real" question but I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

I have absolutely no idea what was in the PM sent to TH, nor what was in any other PMs/ messages/posts/telegrams/e-mails/etc. that former DW
put out there. No point in
anyone sending me any info at this point. I no longer care. Ex-DW had many fine qualities
but was a chronic troublemaker and not all that truthful. I value
honesty very highly so that was a problem. Cutting her some slack OTOH,
she had a pretty terrible life growing up and obviously that never
went away. My huge ego led me to think I could solve all her problems.
I failed. Finally re. TH..........I don't care about TH. I used to enjoy messin'
with his head. Got bored with it. End of story.

JG
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