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Hi! 30yr olds looking for advice on 4 year plan
Old 01-19-2014, 03:25 PM   #1
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Hi! 30yr olds looking for advice on 4 year plan

Iíve been lurking these forums for a few months now and have learned a LOT. Thanks for all of your time spent researching and posting solid information.

Iím looking for some advice on what the next priorities should be over the next 4 years in order to achieve our goal of semi-retiring by 50. We are recently married, both 30 and living in a low COL area with a 95 overall COL index. DW found out she loves chemistry in her 20s and is pursuing a PhD which she has 4ish years left on, hence the 4 year plan.

DW receives a $22k stipend, health insurance and free tuition. This will stay the same over the next 4 years. I expect my $70k income to grow around 10-15% CAGR over the next 4 years. We own our home and have 29.5 years left on our mortgage at 4.25% and a rental property which has an ďall-inĒ -$100/mo cash flow on $1200/mo rent with about 11 years left on a 3.125% loan.

I max my t401k and tIRA contributions every year, DWís stipend doesnít qualify as earned income for an IRA (correct?)

Now I am wrestling with what to do next for our goal. I have ~50% of our $500k net worth in taxable accounts right now with about half of that value in capital gains (yippee!) so that is a low priority for us right now. I feel a bit over-leveraged as we only have ~25% equity in our home and a guaranteed 4.25% return on additional principal payments sounds pretty nice to me. On the other hand, I could try to save up some cash for either a down payment on a house if we have to move cities when DW graduates or another rental property if we can commit to our current city beyond 4 years. I do not want to sell either of my current properties if I can help it as my goal is to semi-retire with my job being landlord.

At the heart of the matter is how important liquidity will be for us and I am having a hard time with that. We currently spend about $3k/mo and have about $20k in emergency funds as we could easily cut back to $2k/mo if necessary. I am leaning towards the idea of putting away money at a guaranteed 4.25% return but am not as wise as the forum. Maybe there is another path I have not even considered? What advice would you have for us?

Please let me know if there is anything else I can provide in terms of goals, preferences or life situations. Thanks in advance for your reply.
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Old 01-19-2014, 03:38 PM   #2
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That "guaranteed" return is actually not guaranteed because it is reduced by inflation. If inflation runs 4% that mortgage is costing you 4.25 - 4.00 or just 0.25%. After a mortgage interest tax deduction you would likely even be ahead.

If you have earned income, you spouse can contribute to an IRA even if she has no earned income.
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Old 01-19-2014, 03:45 PM   #3
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That "guaranteed" return is actually not guaranteed because it is reduced by inflation. If inflation runs 4% that mortgage is costing you 4.25 - 4.00 or just 0.25%. After a mortgage interest tax deduction you would likely even be ahead.

If you have earned income, you spouse can contribute to an IRA even if she has no earned income.
Thanks for the IRA clarification. Mortgage tax deduction doesn't apply as we are under the standard deduction.

Do you have a good link that explains the relationship between mortgages and inflation? I don't see how they are related as I cannot find anywhere with a guaranteed 4% return.
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Old 01-19-2014, 09:33 PM   #4
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Since you repay a mortgage over time, you do so with future dollars, ones that have been inflated (devalued). The net effect is to reduce your cost of the mortgage.

The following link mainly describes other effects of inflation, and (via links from the site) discusses how a mortgage can help offset inflation's impact.
http://www.financialsensearchive.com...2007/0919.html
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Old 01-19-2014, 10:02 PM   #5
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Since you repay a mortgage over time, you do so with future dollars, ones that have been inflated (devalued). The net effect is to reduce your cost of the mortgage.
Definitely something I had not considered. Now I am even more confused as to what to do with extra income.
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Old 01-19-2014, 11:27 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by FIREontheMountain View Post
I’ve been lurking these forums for a few months now and have learned a LOT. Thanks for all of your time spent researching and posting solid information.

I’m looking for some advice on what the next priorities should be over the next 4 years in order to achieve our goal of semi-retiring by 50. We are recently married, both 30 and living in a low COL area with a 95 overall COL index. DW found out she loves chemistry in her 20s and is pursuing a PhD which she has 4ish years left on, hence the 4 year plan.

DW receives a $22k stipend, health insurance and free tuition. This will stay the same over the next 4 years. I expect my $70k income to grow around 10-15% CAGR over the next 4 years. We own our home and have 29.5 years left on our mortgage at 4.25% and a rental property which has an “all-in” -$100/mo cash flow on $1200/mo rent with about 11 years left on a 3.125% loan.

I max my t401k and tIRA contributions every year, DW’s stipend doesn’t qualify as earned income for an IRA (correct?)

Now I am wrestling with what to do next for our goal. I have ~50% of our $500k net worth in taxable accounts right now with about half of that value in capital gains (yippee!) so that is a low priority for us right now. I feel a bit over-leveraged as we only have ~25% equity in our home and a guaranteed 4.25% return on additional principal payments sounds pretty nice to me. On the other hand, I could try to save up some cash for either a down payment on a house if we have to move cities when DW graduates or another rental property if we can commit to our current city beyond 4 years. I do not want to sell either of my current properties if I can help it as my goal is to semi-retire with my job being landlord.


Please let me know if there is anything else I can provide in terms of goals, preferences or life situations. Thanks in advance for your reply.
Time for a little Excel "what if" scenarios....

Copy the various rows of a 1040 onto your Excel spreadsheet, and put a few headers at the top of some of the columns. Make one "2013 Actual", "2014 Current", and a few others with applicable descriptors.

Now just fill in different numbers for the various rows you can adjust and play around with, based on the variables you can control. Many of the rows will be the same (such as personal exemptions, standard deductions, etc.), so it's not really as time consuming as it might first appear.

A few things to verify for possible variable inputs:

1. Spouse's taxable nature - make sure you figure out if her stipend is taxable. Same on her 'free education': wouldn't hurt to verify if it's considered some sort of taxable benefit (unless she's been in the program for more than 2 years, and you didn't get anything for Tax Year 2012 that would indicate her free education is taxable somehow).

2. Educational expenses - look into any possible tax credits you get for higher educational expenses. Even if your spouse has 100% free tuition, I am unfamiliar with the various things the IRS lets you also count as 'educational expenses' that qualify for a few of the various tax credits and tax deductions (and which she probably still has to pay). They might allow a certain deduction/credit for a laptop, or books, or activity fees, etc. The IRS publications should have a fairly good description of what counts.

3. Capital gains - this could require a few extra columns. It might make sense to declare some of your capital gains IF you are able to stay in the lowest capital gains bracket, since once your wife graduates and has a job, your total income will only go up and you'll pay higher capital gains taxes. (you can buy the holding right back after selling it if you want).

4. State 529 plans - Some states give you a tax deduction for a 529 plan. If you pay state income taxes, see if your state gives a deduction for contributions to it. You can put the money in and take it right back out (subject to your specific 529 plan's requirements). See my previous comment about what constitutes a qualified educational expense, and what your wife might still have to pay for that isn't covered by her tuition (if anything?)

5. ROTH/Traditional 401k or IRA. This will require another few columns in Excel. It might make sense to max out your traditional 401k to reduce your taxable income so that your capital gains may qualify for the 0% long term capital gains tax rate. Or, if you wouldn't be able to qualify for the 0% long term cap gains rate, then you might want to put all of your 401k into a ROTH 401k, and/or make ROTH IRA contributions for you and/or your wife.

6. HSA - Do you have the opportunity to contribute to an HSA for you and/or your wife?

You likely will never be in this tax bracket again (or, at the least, it won't be until you retire). So do whatever you can to take advantage of these low tax brackets now.
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Old 01-20-2014, 03:32 AM   #7
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When my spouse was in grad school and received a stipend, it was a little less than twice yours and taxable. We opened a SE401k and dumped all of it in there, every year for four years. We've been unable to reach that same level of pre-tax saving since then, so you may want to take advantage while you can...
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Old 01-20-2014, 09:03 AM   #8
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Time for a little Excel "what if" scenarios....
I love Excel and have a mountain of spreadsheets, but for tax simulations someone on this forum pointed to me to TurboTax Taxcaster and I've found it very helpful

https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tool...ors/taxcaster/
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Old 01-20-2014, 11:12 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by MooreBonds View Post
Time for a little Excel "what if" scenarios....

Copy the various rows of a 1040 onto your Excel spreadsheet, and put a few headers at the top of some of the columns. Make one "2013 Actual", "2014 Current", and a few others with applicable descriptors.

Now just fill in different numbers for the various rows you can adjust and play around with, based on the variables you can control. Many of the rows will be the same (such as personal exemptions, standard deductions, etc.), so it's not really as time consuming as it might first appear.

A few things to verify for possible variable inputs:

1. Spouse's taxable nature - make sure you figure out if her stipend is taxable. Same on her 'free education': wouldn't hurt to verify if it's considered some sort of taxable benefit (unless she's been in the program for more than 2 years, and you didn't get anything for Tax Year 2012 that would indicate her free education is taxable somehow).

2. Educational expenses - look into any possible tax credits you get for higher educational expenses. Even if your spouse has 100% free tuition, I am unfamiliar with the various things the IRS lets you also count as 'educational expenses' that qualify for a few of the various tax credits and tax deductions (and which she probably still has to pay). They might allow a certain deduction/credit for a laptop, or books, or activity fees, etc. The IRS publications should have a fairly good description of what counts.

3. Capital gains - this could require a few extra columns. It might make sense to declare some of your capital gains IF you are able to stay in the lowest capital gains bracket, since once your wife graduates and has a job, your total income will only go up and you'll pay higher capital gains taxes. (you can buy the holding right back after selling it if you want).

4. State 529 plans - Some states give you a tax deduction for a 529 plan. If you pay state income taxes, see if your state gives a deduction for contributions to it. You can put the money in and take it right back out (subject to your specific 529 plan's requirements). See my previous comment about what constitutes a qualified educational expense, and what your wife might still have to pay for that isn't covered by her tuition (if anything?)

5. ROTH/Traditional 401k or IRA. This will require another few columns in Excel. It might make sense to max out your traditional 401k to reduce your taxable income so that your capital gains may qualify for the 0% long term capital gains tax rate. Or, if you wouldn't be able to qualify for the 0% long term cap gains rate, then you might want to put all of your 401k into a ROTH 401k, and/or make ROTH IRA contributions for you and/or your wife.

6. HSA - Do you have the opportunity to contribute to an HSA for you and/or your wife?

You likely will never be in this tax bracket again (or, at the least, it won't be until you retire). So do whatever you can to take advantage of these low tax brackets now.
Thanks so much for your response, you have given me a ton of things to look into! I have an excel sheet built and have been playing with different inputs but haven't come to any conclusions, yet.

1) This is probably my top priority right now.
2) Will look into this - great idea
3) This is the focus of my strategy right now - trying to max out my 15% federal bracket with capital gains at 0%
4) I have never looked into a 529 plan before - thanks for the idea, I will do
5) I have done this math and go with traditional for all retirement accounts in order to be able to sell off taxable stocks for 0% capital gains
6) Unfortunately, there is no high deductible plan available at my work

I am hoping to take max advantage of this time and you have given me some ideas of things we are not looking at yet. Thank you for your post!
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Old 01-20-2014, 11:27 AM   #10
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When my spouse was in grad school and received a stipend, it was a little less than twice yours and taxable. We opened a SE401k and dumped all of it in there, every year for four years. We've been unable to reach that same level of pre-tax saving since then, so you may want to take advantage while you can...
I will look into a SE401k and yes we are trying to do as much as we can while her income is still small. Thanks for your post.
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Old 01-20-2014, 11:29 AM   #11
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I love Excel and have a mountain of spreadsheets, but for tax simulations someone on this forum pointed to me to TurboTax Taxcaster and I've found it very helpful

https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tool...ors/taxcaster/
I have used taxcaster and found it to be helpful. I mostly just use my turbotax and plug in assumptions then never hit submit, I've found it to be easier. I use excel all day every day at work so I am pretty comfortable building models, which I have done but have yet to have a "Eureka!" moment in terms of what we should be focusing on next. Thanks for your post.
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Old 01-22-2014, 09:16 PM   #12
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I have thought extensively about what Grayhare said and believe inflation's effects on the decision to pay off your mortgage early are negligible. After all, inflation will happen to all investment options. The real issue is the guaranteed 4.25% vs. the unknown market return. The only way I can see your mortgage as a hedge against inflation is if you plan on not needing a place to live at some point in the future.
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Old 01-23-2014, 12:48 AM   #13
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I have used taxcaster and found it to be helpful. I mostly just use my turbotax and plug in assumptions then never hit submit, I've found it to be easier. I use excel all day every day at work so I am pretty comfortable building models, which I have done but have yet to have a "Eureka!" moment in terms of what we should be focusing on next. Thanks for your post.
Open the form "What-If Worksheet" in TT and "play" to your heart's content.
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Old 01-23-2014, 10:45 AM   #14
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I have thought extensively about what Grayhare said and believe inflation's effects on the decision to pay off your mortgage early are negligible. After all, inflation will happen to all investment options. The real issue is the guaranteed 4.25% vs. the unknown market return. The only way I can see your mortgage as a hedge against inflation is if you plan on not needing a place to live at some point in the future.
+1

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Old 01-24-2014, 11:03 PM   #15
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Welcome FOM. Reading your post I could not help but notice the similarities between where you are now and where my wife and I were at your age 23 years ago. Right down to the rental property. Of course we did not have $500,000 in the market. We were in a new home, working full time wife in law school and me in grad school. I would not even start investing in the market for another 5 years. Today our net worth is approaching 2M with no debt. I will work 2 more years max. Regarding your situation, I will offer the following comments

4 year plan? You are 30 hoping to retire at 50. That's a 20 year plan. At this point it sounds like you are doing the right things as to investments. I would suggest you diversify a bit and retire the mortgage gradually over time. I could pass on a lot of other detailed financial strategies but will opt to leave that to others and provide you with a simple 20 year plan that worked for us.

Sock away 6 months of emergency funds. Learn to live off of 80 percent of your combined take home pay. (net of taxes) If you get a $2000 per year raise, your standard of living increases by $1,600. If your income decreases, you decrease your living cost. This works not because you will sock away 20% of your take home. The magic lies in the fiscal discipline you will develop. Even as you make more money, you will scrutinize expenditures to compare the cost to the utility you will derive. We did this. As our incomes increased rapidly in our 40s, our expenditures decreased as a percentage of cash inflows. Today we spend about 50% and live a fairly extravagant lifestyle. We have lots of toys including a 40 foot RV. We travel extensively in North America, the Caribbean and to a lesser extent, Europe. And most important, my retirement is on track.
Good luck on your goal.
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Old 01-25-2014, 09:30 AM   #16
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... I am leaning towards the idea of putting away money at a guaranteed 4.25% return but am not as wise as the forum. ...
Well, this 'wise forum' is really split on the 'pay-off-or-not' issue, so I'm not sure what to make of that.

My view is, if you have sufficient liquidity (and since you may need another down payment if you move for job opportunities, this might be an issue for you), it probably makes very little difference one way or the other, assuming a decent interest rate (and yours is pretty good).

Mostly, the 'pay-it-off' group is based on the 'feeling' and some sort of (misguided IMO) idea that your home is so much more protected w/o a mortgage. I don't accept the 'safety' argument, because you have the money saved - you are unlikely to lose so much in your investment to threaten your ownership, and that money is available for emergencies. So I think the money helps protect your place.

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... The real issue is the guaranteed 4.25% vs. the unknown market return. ...
I also think that people place too much significance on this 'guaranteed x%' with a pre-pay. If 'guaranteed' is so important, than why don't these people put ALL their money in 'guaranteed' investments (a very, very few do - but they seem o be ignoring the effects of inflation).

It is very likely, though not guaranteed, that a 75/25 AA will outperform 4.25% over 30 years. Look at history:

Quote:
... Worst 35-Year Returns in Dow Jones History (Since 1900)

The worst 35-year periods began in:
1906: the return was about 6.1% for the next 35 years
1905: 6.4% annual return

...

The average 35-year return was 9.7% -- slightly less than the average 10 and 20-year returns
So the worst return was ~ 50% higher than your mortgage rate. No guarantee, but guarantees cost money (often in the form of 'opportunity cost'). There's also no guarantee that advanced education will pay off, but I think that is a pretty good bet (assuming a good field).

-ERD50
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Old 01-25-2014, 11:17 PM   #17
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Welcome FOM. Reading your post I could not help but notice the similarities between where you are now and where my wife and I were at your age 23 years ago. Right down to the rental property. Of course we did not have $500,000 in the market. We were in a new home, working full time wife in law school and me in grad school. I would not even start investing in the market for another 5 years. Today our net worth is approaching 2M with no debt. I will work 2 more years max. Regarding your situation, I will offer the following comments

4 year plan? You are 30 hoping to retire at 50. That's a 20 year plan. At this point it sounds like you are doing the right things as to investments. I would suggest you diversify a bit and retire the mortgage gradually over time. I could pass on a lot of other detailed financial strategies but will opt to leave that to others and provide you with a simple 20 year plan that worked for us.

Sock away 6 months of emergency funds. Learn to live off of 80 percent of your combined take home pay. (net of taxes) If you get a $2000 per year raise, your standard of living increases by $1,600. If your income decreases, you decrease your living cost. This works not because you will sock away 20% of your take home. The magic lies in the fiscal discipline you will develop. Even as you make more money, you will scrutinize expenditures to compare the cost to the utility you will derive. We did this. As our incomes increased rapidly in our 40s, our expenditures decreased as a percentage of cash inflows. Today we spend about 50% and live a fairly extravagant lifestyle. We have lots of toys including a 40 foot RV. We travel extensively in North America, the Caribbean and to a lesser extent, Europe. And most important, my retirement is on track.
Good luck on your goal.
It's reassuring to hear that others have been in a similar spot and ended up about where we want to be. I call this our 4 year plan as that is about as far out as we can see right now.

We are on a bit more aggressive savings plan than you called for in terms of % of income so that is also reassuring. We are fairly frugal and are planning to save the bulk of any future raises, more like 80% of them rather than 20%. We have agreed that our current level of spending is about as much as either of us would ever want to spend.

Thanks a lot for your response, I would be interested in hearing any more tips or advice you have for us as it is always nice to hear from someone who has been there before.
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Old 01-25-2014, 11:29 PM   #18
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Mostly, the 'pay-it-off' group is based on the 'feeling' and some sort of (misguided IMO) idea that your home is so much more protected w/o a mortgage. I don't accept the 'safety' argument, because you have the money saved - you are unlikely to lose so much in your investment to threaten your ownership, and that money is available for emergencies. So I think the money helps protect your place.
-ERD50
I agree with you about the safety argument. I have never missed a payment on anything and never will so that is not playing into our decision at all.

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I also think that people place too much significance on this 'guaranteed x%' with a pre-pay. If 'guaranteed' is so important, than why don't these people put ALL their money in 'guaranteed' investments (a very, very few do - but they seem o be ignoring the effects of inflation).
To me, one sign of a good portfolio is diversification. By the logic you used above one should always invest all of their portfolio in whatever investment they believe will increase in value the most over time. I don't have that much faith in my ability to predict the future of any one position so I try to diversify across several types of investments.

Right now I have a huge slug of equity positions and feel over-leveraged on my home and don't like the idea of gambling heavily on our local real estate market going up (we have a local rental unit as well).

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So the worst return was ~ 50% higher than your mortgage rate. No guarantee, but guarantees cost money (often in the form of 'opportunity cost').
This is perhaps the best argument I have seen for why not to pay down the mortgage early. I will have to do my own research to confirm the numbers I see here, but if correct I would have to agree with your position that investing further in equities would be a wise choice. I do not use a 75/25 AA, I am far more aggressive than that (more like 95/5) so the data would indicate investing in the market would be even more advantageous

Thank you very much for your insightful post that included relevant data.
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