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Old 04-04-2014, 11:29 AM   #41
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Thanks, I'll look into it. You all will get me moving yet. But check this site, maybe you know it: Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting Using the Elliott Wave Principle At min. interesting read. Prechter is a psychologist and musician (Yale, if important?) by training, but has spent most of his life forecasting market trends. Lot's of interesting free info. on his site as well.
For members, the link is to a paid subscription site that promotes the view that market performance can be broken down into predictable cycles. Elliot Wave is one such theory, there are many others. WAVE3 looks to be a follower, based on the link and choice of username.

Caveat Emptor.
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Hi, New & wanting to retire early
Old 04-04-2014, 11:39 AM   #42
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Hi, New & wanting to retire early

Apparently I can't get any 'free peeks' - which he has never offered before - at Elliot's site without entering a credit card number for a 'free trial' of his 'legendary' analysis. I'm not willing to do that.
My scam alarm goes off at such wording.

Addendum - NOW I see Michael's warning...lol

Wave - if your primary function joining here was to promote this philosophy and website, your efforts were better spent at other forums. If your stated purpose about learning valid investment techniques was accurate, my personal suggestion is stop listening to these psychologist/musicians posing as forecasters with a miracle sure-fire legendary ability...

Listen to people who have done it, not those looking at your pocket book.
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Old 04-04-2014, 11:47 AM   #43
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For members, the link is to a paid subscription site that promotes the view that market performance can be broken down into predictable cycles. Elliot Wave is one such theory, there are many others. WAVE3 looks to be a follower, based on the link and choice of username.

Caveat Emptor.
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Apparently I can't get any 'free peeks' - which he has never offered before - at Elliot's site without entering a credit card number for a 'free trial' of his 'legendary' analysis. I'm not willing to do that.
My scam alarm goes off at such wording.

Addendum - NOW I see Michael's warning...lol
I was a poor student of Lingua Latina, but I 'm pretty sure 'Caveat Emptor' translates to "Great Ceaser's Ghost! Is this a joke!".

Elliot Wave Theory! Gimme a break! (Brewer will probably be along shortly with more colorful language)

-ERD50
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Old 04-04-2014, 11:49 AM   #44
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I thought it meant: let the sucker - ER, I mean buyer - beware
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Old 04-04-2014, 11:54 AM   #45
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Old 04-04-2014, 11:57 AM   #46
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Sounds like Annuity is the best way to go for you. The reasons why I say this is ...

You have about $2M in cash (deduction from your post). You are very conservative, may be even be afraid of losing financial security with any investing strategy. Single - no need to leave money to anyone. My crude estimate says you can get more than $60k per year by going with Annuity, depending on what type of annuity you go with.

If you want little more flexibility, perhaps, Annuity + some other investment may work for you.

Good luck.
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Old 04-04-2014, 12:15 PM   #47
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Just some drab: Yes, I'm very risk adverse. Without going into details I've taken care of myself since I was 13. But having $ then losing it, probably better not to have had to begin with. While I've done well, would much rather live off the gains in investment than pure capital. I'll be around, you guys are good & to the point. Just going to have to switch gears. Maybe start with annuity.
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Old 04-04-2014, 01:47 PM   #48
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Nash031 " By what you're reading and what you're saying, you sound like the type of person who would do exactly what I mentioned in my first paragraph: buy high, sell low and get wiped out. This is the folly of market timing: you think you can do it because you're smart, but you fail to account for your emotions and risk tolerance

If got it right, if your trading above your risk tolerance you will trade emotionally and lose. That's why 90+% day traders so. I don't trade and am basically a contrarian. Not a favorite at the party.
This is true. Being a contrarian is fine so long as you appreciate that by taking "no risk", you are virtually guaranteeing a loss over the long term (which is, in itself, a risk).
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Old 04-04-2014, 01:52 PM   #49
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Thanks, I'll look into it. You all will get me moving yet. But check this site, maybe you know it: Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting Using the Elliott Wave Principle At min. interesting read. Prechter is a psychologist and musician (Yale, if important?) by training, but has spent most of his life forecasting market trends. Lot's of interesting free info. on his site as well.
I have little interest in, nor use for, market forecasts. Over time, they are usually wrong and of little utility to the average investor. There are plenty of people who have timed the market correctly once or twice, and no one will argue that "buy low, sell high" is the best strategy possible.

The problem is executing that strategy: you have to be right twice. You have to buy at the low and sell at the high without knowing when the lows and highs are. You could sell everything today and miss out on another 30% gain. You could sit with hundreds of thousands of dollars on the sideline convinced of a market correction that never comes and miss a subsequent 30% gain.

It is that behavior - that GUESSwork - that hinders the performance of most average investors. The theory is sound; the practice is nearly impossible. Professional market forecasters are wrong far more often than they are right.

By not trading - being a contrarian - you are eliminating that guesswork and thus market risk, but you are maximizing inflation risk. In the end, you will almost certainly lose a great deal of your purchasing power for the remainder of your life.
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Old 04-04-2014, 02:02 PM   #50
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Hi Nash*, Thanks once again. Some questions / clarifications: 1) Curious - do you use technical indicators, price/volume/p/e,... to determine when to buy/sell, or buy & hold? 2) Contrarian - never considered I eliminated market risk, but it does. 3) What theory are you referring too? 3) Agree most forecasters are only right some of the time, maybe only x1; 4) liked Nash: "The problem is executing that strategy: you have to be right twice. You have to buy at the low and sell at the high without knowing when the lows and highs are. You could sell everything today and miss out on another 30% gain. You could sit with hundreds of thousands of dollars on the sideline convinced of a market correction that never comes and miss a subsequent 30% gain."

But as we get older and cannot accept a long-term risk, what to do? We need $ to live. Thanks!
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Old 04-04-2014, 02:27 PM   #51
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Wave

I wanted to apologize for starting to take your thread off topic. Not my place to judge Elliot's Wave Theory without knowing more about. We occasionally get people who come on the forum solely to promote their website or views.
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Old 04-04-2014, 02:27 PM   #52
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Nash, you're speculating, lol, . " you sound like the type of person who would do exactly what I mentioned in my first paragraph: buy high, sell low and get wiped out." Has not happened ever since 1974. Shorted NASDAQ in 1999, sold rest of stock. Sold house in 2006 & now rent. No debt. Just cash. P.s. For some reason I feel no emotions about investments, really, it is as it is, I'll just change it.

Add: Have to say it's not easy to do the opposite of very else - sell stocks near peak (DOW's going to 30,000) or sell house when people are snapping up everything with a foundation. I never would chide anyone over losses. I just keep quite. A mentor told me to keep quite. But this is an investor forum not work, etc. A mentor, sold seat on NYSE some 30+ years ago and trades from house S&P mini only! Closes all positions by end of day. Does not trade when market first opens, between 11-2 (lunch), or after 3:30. He's good at it and very wealthy, would not know it. One person told me he 'moves markets', don't think so, he only trades up to 10 S&P mini's. May make 0 one day, ass handed to him (his words) another day and at least 50%+ is right. So, he's not greedy, he'll take guess an average of $500 per day. We had lots of discussion about emotions, no place for them in investing in my opinion.
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Old 04-04-2014, 02:31 PM   #53
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Seraphim, understand, but no would not do that. EWT is easy in theory and very hard in practice. Alternate counts. Plus, using at least 10 other technical indicators for support.
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Old 04-04-2014, 02:55 PM   #54
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"But as we get older and cannot accept a long-term risk, what to do? We need $ to live. "

There are various strategies, depending on the amount of principle you have compared to how much money you need to live.

Annuities offered steady, guaranteed income - unless the insurance company defaults. You know exactly what your income is going to be year after year. No surprises. It's also permanent. But some offer COLAs, I understand, so your purchasing power remains constant.

Buying long term bonds is another form of fixed income offers the same comfortable knowledge - if you can lock in yields sufficient to cover and future costs of living. Dividends will be the same year after year. No COLA.

Living off dividends of an all equity portfolio is possible, but you never know year to year what your annual income will be, and - historically - 25% will be years of negative returns; so it's necessary to set aside income in the good years to have set aside for the negative years.

I would hazard most people here think in terms of total returns rather than income. Income from bonds and stocks are reinvested, and shares are sold when funds are needed. They establish an allocation of stocks and bonds that suits their tolerance for risk and determine a 'safe' withdrawal amount. I don't know if you're familiar with the old 4% guideline mentioned earlier, but it works on the assumption if you have 60% or greater of your allocation in stocks, taking out 4% of the initial portfolio amount the first year, then increasing that amount by inflation each year offers a 95% chance your portfolio will last 30 years. Take out less initially, and the portfolio lasts longer. If robnplunder's assesment was accurate, with $2M invested and a 30 year life expectancy, you could take out a max of $80k a year with some confidence. Of course, if you only need $60k, only withdraw $60k. When you come into SS, reduce the amount of withdrawals by the amount of SS you receive.

If you haven't already, one of the first things you need to do is figure out a realistic budget for your retirement years, based on the lifestyle you want to live, and determine how much money you'll need each year to live. Then you can come up with a stratagem for investing and withdrawal.

It's also good to consider recent reports which indicate the average retiree will need about $265k (I think that's the right number) to spend on health care before he dies.

Hope this helps and isn't redundant...
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Old 04-04-2014, 03:03 PM   #55
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Hi, New & wanting to retire early

"A mentor told me to keep quite. But this is an investor forum not work, etc. A mentor, sold seat on NYSE some 30+ years ago and trades from house S&P mini only! Closes all positions by end of day. Does not trade when market first opens, between 11-2 (lunch), or after 3:30. He's good at it and very wealthy, would not know it. One person told me he 'moves markets', don't think so, he only trades up to 10 S&P mini's. May make 0 one day, ass handed to him (his words) another day and at least 50%+ is right. So, he's not greedy, he'll take guess an average of $500 per day. We had lots of discussion about emotions, no place for them in investing in my opinio"

Sounds like he works hard for his money. Too much work for me. If he enjoys it - great! I spend half my time in remote spots with no internet or cell. I'll let the indexes do all the work, thank you very much. Lol. Made about $4k yesterday, look to lose about $10k today, but I'm up about 2.5% YTD. Bond funds actually outperforming international stock funds! This year isn't going to be as lucrative as last.
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Old 04-04-2014, 03:07 PM   #56
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seraphim, thanks for taking the time to write. Read it & will re-read, make good points with flexibility.
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Old 04-04-2014, 03:21 PM   #57
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seraphim, you're right, it's not as easy as watching him, probably can do it in his sleep. If market flat goes golfing. He generally will do 2-3 trades a day and is in/out in less than 5 minutes usually. Say's "there are $100 bills lying on the floor, don't get greedy just pick up the 100's" He is skimming. And now believe he is in his mid-70's, still trades but does not have to. Really nice guy, shares a lot. Just can you do it without freaking out: 12 charts on 3 templates at 2 min. mark & another 12 charts on 3 templates at 30 min. "for long-term view"
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Old 04-04-2014, 04:06 PM   #58
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Hi Nash*, Thanks once again. Some questions / clarifications: 1) Curious - do you use technical indicators, price/volume/p/e,... to determine when to buy/sell, or buy & hold? 2) Contrarian - never considered I eliminated market risk, but it does. 3) What theory are you referring too? 3) Agree most forecasters are only right some of the time, maybe only x1; 4) liked Nash: "The problem is executing that strategy: you have to be right twice. You have to buy at the low and sell at the high without knowing when the lows and highs are. You could sell everything today and miss out on another 30% gain. You could sit with hundreds of thousands of dollars on the sideline convinced of a market correction that never comes and miss a subsequent 30% gain."

But as we get older and cannot accept a long-term risk, what to do? We need $ to live. Thanks!
1) No. I am aware of PE, Shiller PE, etc., but I do not use them to determine when I buy and sell. I buy periodically - monthly in IRAs, 403(b)s, bi-weekly in taxable account, all set up automatically. I "sell" when my asset allocation dictates so (i.e. stocks go up giving me more than 90% of invested assets in stocks... sell stock funds, buy bond funds to get it back down to 85%, and vice versa). I have no interest in attempting to forecast where I think the market will go based on anything. If there was a method that worked consistently, everyone would use it and it would no longer work.

2) Think you missed the point. By sitting in cash, you maximize inflation risk. If by "contrarian" you mean you sell when others buy, and buy when others are selling, I understand that line of thinking. I do not agree with it, but I understand why you would - going against the mob historically has worked in favor of contrarian investors. I just think it's a pretty arbitrary way to secure your financial future, and if that IS what you mean by contrarian, then it most assuredly does NOT eliminate market risk.

I disagree that you can't accept long-term risk as you get older. That may be the case for you, but it is certainly not the case for everyone. Plenty of older investors are 70% or more in the equity market. And as I said, when you reduce "market risk" by limiting exposure to equities, you are often exposing yourself to more "inflation risk". "Inflation risk" is a bigger long-term problem; "market risk" is more of a worry in the short-term.

You, however, are not "old". You have a 40-year or so retirement horizon. While it's not my place to say, I think you're looking at this whole problem backwards. But your risk tolerance is just that: yours (NOT your financial advisor's!!!!)
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Old 04-04-2014, 04:11 PM   #59
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Nash, thanks. 1) if that IS what you mean by contrarian, then it most assuredly does NOT eliminate market risk. (that's what I meant.)
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Old 04-06-2014, 09:46 PM   #60
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Hi Nash*, Thanks once again. Some questions / clarificati....................................... ...............

But as we get older and cannot accept a long-term risk, what to do? We need $ to live. Thanks!

It seems to me that the biggest long term risk we face as we get older is inflation. We have been lucky with relatively low inflation for quite some time, but I am almost certain that the inflation rate will go higher and be a big issue at some point in our lifetimes. The market goes up and down but over time it has done VERY well.
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