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Old 04-06-2014, 10:39 PM   #61
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I prefer index-oriented, buy-and-hold equity investing because it recognizes the essential motivation of the stock market:companies making value. Trading acts on that and a bunch of other stuff, mostly incomprehensible to me. Kinda like the difference between "regular" and quantum physics; I get mass, inertia, etc., but strings and dead/alive cats are beyond me
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Old 04-07-2014, 06:40 AM   #62
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2) Think you missed the point. By sitting in cash, you maximize inflation risk. If by "contrarian" you mean you sell when others buy, and buy when others are selling, I understand that line of thinking. I do not agree with it, but I understand why you would - going against the mob historically has worked in favor of contrarian investors. I just think it's a pretty arbitrary way to secure your financial future, and if that IS what you mean by contrarian, then it most assuredly does NOT eliminate market risk.
Is there ANYBODY who is NOT a contrarian? And how do you buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying, aren't there always the same number of buyers as sellers? Only the price changes to where they match. With so many contrarians around I wonder where the people they are contrary to are hiding?
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Old 04-07-2014, 07:30 AM   #63
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You can't simply divide your portfolio size by your life expectancy to get a safe withdrawal rate.
In my opinion, it depends if your portfolio is growing. If it just sits somewhere not earning any interest, I agree. But if your portfolio at least keeps up with inflation (factoring in any taxes due), I think you can divide your portfolio size by your life expectancy to get an estimate of a safe withdrawal rate.
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Old 04-07-2014, 07:36 AM   #64
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In my opinion, it depends if your portfolio is growing. If it just sits somewhere not earning any interest, I agree. But if your portfolio at least keeps up with inflation (factoring in any taxes due), I think you can divide your portfolio size by your life expectancy to get an estimate of a safe withdrawal rate.
Oh great, now you have put a bunch of academics out of work.
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