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hoping for 2017, might flee earlier
Old 08-09-2014, 05:31 PM   #1
Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: seattle
Posts: 27
hoping for 2017, might flee earlier

I've been meaning to introduce myself, but its hard to "sum" up all financial thoughts! (and I'm not as poetic as some posters). But I do appreciate the forum and all the time you all have spent developing it so...
I have always been LBYM's type. In my early days it was more of the "live simply so that others may simply live" philosophy. So lived on below taxable income for years. Then, got a high paying job and gave away some but saved a great deal in a fairly short time period. Now have a significant other and so spending has gone up quite a bit. But I'm happy...
So plan
I have about 1.1 million in savings (not including house, etc). About 70/30. No debts. When I first started saving I was mostly all CD's, etc, but have gradually come to agree with most that I have to have some stock risk b/c of long term inflation risk.
I just moved to seattle and my living expenses seem to be hedging up (dang is food expensive here!) but I think 36000-42000 is likely reasonable (been tracking a couple years, but now need more updated seattle info)
It makes it easier for me to think of occasional expenses as more of a "reserve fund" (I learned all about those after being on a condo board!). So I plan for savings to support basic living (42000) at 3%withdrawal rate. Then an additional $400,000 total (250000 for health care - not premium, but out of pocket, 100,000 house fund, 50000 cars). Basic living includes most day to day house stuff - little plumbing, new light fixture, etc, so "reserve" is for big stuff). Thinking I need 1.6-1.8 million total
Not really counting social security, but believe there will be some (won't be a ton, but still nice - I anticipate it covering medicare premium and medigap policy)
Plan to try to dial back to maybe 50-55% equities in a couple years - I get a little confused on how all the experts/papers come up with such variance, but liked Pfau's analysis. I guess I'm thinking that as long as I am going reasonably low with withdrawal rate (3%) and want a very low "failure" rate that it seems to support the lower than firecalcs "optimum" % of stocks?
Anyway - I'm rambling a bit. Mostly wanted to finally say "hi" to participate. I don't think my experience is particularly instructive, but on the other hand I really appreciate seeing other people's actual "numbers". Its reassuring I suppose - we will all swim or sink together!
Thanks again.

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Old 08-10-2014, 06:41 AM   #2
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Welcome aboard, newtoseattle. Sounds like you have a clear goal and a plan to get reach it.

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Old 08-10-2014, 11:43 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 494
Hey there.

Seems I've found my FIRE twin. Our savings and goals and ER date are quite similar. We're shooting for 50k/yr at 3% WR, but still need 2-4 years to reach our number and validate our budget assumptions.

Market depending of course...

Welcome to the area! I've traveled quite a bit but have never found any place I'd rather live than Seattle. I hope you love it too.

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Old 08-10-2014, 01:17 PM   #4
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Welcome! There are a lot of us non-poets here, so jump right in!
"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute." William Feather
ER'd Oct. 2010 at 53. Life is good.
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Old 08-10-2014, 04:00 PM   #5
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Posts: 27
welcome to the board. sounds like you are doing very well. dont worry about posting something that sounds perfect. nobody is perfect. I find myself making corrections to posts myself. heck thats what the edit button is for hehe. keep chasing the ER bandwagon and eventually you will jump on.
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Old 08-13-2014, 05:25 AM   #6
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Age ? Kids? Is your savings pretax or post tax? Home equity value ?
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Old 08-13-2014, 02:31 PM   #7
Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: seattle
Posts: 27
Thank you all for your responses.
I'm 45. No kids (Dogs don't count!)
Most is post tax - I think about 30% pre tax. I'm going to have an old 457 start distributions in 2019 spread over 10 years - I had to choose the plan when I left and so can't really alter it now - but I think it'll be reasonable...
I stupidly rolled over an old 401 to an IRA a year ago and so can't do anymore "backdoor" roth conversions...
I haven't decided about roth conversions after retirement because of aca. The initial calculations I ran show it not really worth it because of losing/cutting the aca subsidy - We will see how that evolves over a couple of years. I'm hoping someone develops a fancy calculator/projection model for that in the next couple of years!
There seem like there are way too many variables - its hard to try and account for all of them...
I do have a random question - I was trying to mess around with firecalc and change projected returns. So I chose 10% deviation (about historical for 50/50, no?) and then 7% returns for stocks and 4% for bonds. Although lower than historical it didn't seem like an overly conservative estimate? (inflation 3%) It scared me that the success rate for really conservative withdrawal rates (<3.3%) fell to way below 80%? Does that make sense?

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