Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Is it time to hit the golf range?
Old 08-01-2013, 11:09 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boise
Posts: 184
Is it time to hit the golf range?

Writing to you from beautiful Boise, Idaho.

I hesitate to bear my soul even though I read your stories with great interest. I would love to hear your thoughts.

I'm at the point in my life where I think about retirement every single day. After 29 years in the same department maybe this is just a normal feeling.

At 54 I am a newlywed, again. My DW is a couple of years older. We have been together for about three years. We both have nice jobs and together make a little over $200K. I really can't complain about the stress, mostly the boredom and irritation with management and knowing that my salary and job are now static. My DW and I have similar philosophies and have both been savers and have accumulated roughly $2.2 million. She has a paid off condo that we live in. No car payments. No children living at home. Her daughter is attending law school and may need some assistance the 2nd and 3rd year, but also has a fine father who will help. So not a big burden if she needs some assistance.

Monthly expenses vary, but with a couple of vacations a year plus addictions to golf and tennis and money to help my 78 year old mother we probably average about $7300 a month.

HC is an unknown. Fidelity claims about $1000/month each. On line tools say about $675/month, which seems low. SO I estimated about $900 each for a total of $9100/month, $109K/year. Which I think in reality is probably high. I have $1000/month of miscellaneous to cover unknowns such as medical deductibles or new golf clubs.

My biggest concern is my mother, who though healthy and active for her age, still playing tennis, has no plan for long term health care if something goes very badly.

I have not budgeted anything for long term health care insurance for ourselves either. The little bit I have read does not give me confidence in the products or the costs in the future. Maybe parachuting is the way to go.

I've played with FIRECalc, but retirement was always down the road. Today I tried retiring this year. Both the Constant Spending and Bernicke's Reality Retirement Plan spending models say 100% for 36 year retirement. Fidelity says wait until 2015 at age 56, with a $22K shortfall at 90. This is with the 90% conservative setting. I appreciate Fidelity for being more conservative as that fits my own personality. I've always found it funny that with the conservative setting that my beginning assets in two years will be less than what I have today. It could be true. None the less retiring today sounds so appealing. Well maybe next week.

$2250000 assets
$109000 expenses
36 year (54+36=90) retirement

After writing this I am not sure why I am still hesitating . . . .
__________________

__________________
jcretire77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-01-2013, 11:20 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JoeWras's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 2,517
Welcome JC.

Sounds like a little bit of OMY (One More Year) syndrome. I have it a bit too.

Here's a few things to consider.
- You didn't mention your allocation of assets. Any in a 401K? A lot of plans allow access at age 55 (not 59 1/2 like an IRA) if you stay with that Megacorp until the year you reach 55. I don't know if that applies for you, just something to consider. It is one goal or excuse I'm shooting for to get my plan to get out of OMY.
- Mom. She's still fairly young. You might work until you are 70 before she'd need your help. It is just an unknown. Many of us are struggling with LTC issues for both ourselves and our parents. I have no good advice except to say you are not alone.
__________________

__________________
JoeWras is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2013, 11:38 AM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
Jack_Pine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 834
You sound like you are in pretty good shape. Others, smarter than I, will chime in soon to give you their spin.

I agree Fidelity is a much more conservative model. FC always seems to say 100% for me while Fidelity is in the mid ninty's. Good to have both views. Good luck with your decision.

BTW, I do think some consideration needs to be give to Long Term health care. We are meeting with some folks to look at some plans that only cover the catastrophic side of things. Not sure how that works but will find out.
__________________
The Constitution. It's not just a good idea...it's the law.
Jack_Pine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2013, 11:53 AM   #4
Recycles dryer sheets
GoodWishes's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 79
Hi JC

I am going through similar exercises since we also plan to retire soon (maybe 1 year, maybe 3/4 years, who knows).

One thing I forgot earlier in my annual expenses is taxes. If you are getting over $100k a year, the government will want a cut of it.

I am also looking into LTC for my parents. I agree there is no good solution out there now. Maybe Medicaid will have to kick in for them some day.

Many of us are planning for the worst case scenario like 100% success rate above average life expectancy. When my aunt passed away a couple years ago at age 74, it makes me wonder if we should retire sooner
__________________
GoodWishes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2013, 11:54 AM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boise
Posts: 184
Thanks Joe,

One more year is right. It's just really been on my mind this year. The weird thing is that my job is very pleasant, plenty of time off. No pressure from management. I have a small group of hard working employees and a few good friends that I would miss.

I have about $610K in a 401K. 50% Target funds and 50% in equities, so I am very heavy in stocks. 85/15 $120K in an IRA. $440K in mutual funds (fees are around 1%), probably about 70/30 stocks/bonds. $70k cash DW about $230 in 401K and $750 in IRA's, CD's, Stocks. She has a more conservative portfolio. So we probably average 70/30 AA.

I subbed in a golf league the other night and my opponent had retired eleven months ago and was enjoying the heck out of it. Got me thinking.

Enjoy your day.
__________________
jcretire77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2013, 12:05 PM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boise
Posts: 184
Thanks for your reply Good Wishes. I think that Fidelity does a much better job of factoring in the taxes so tend to believe their tool a bit more. My own spreadsheet which is pretty basic does look at the deferred tax accounts and it shows two years is a more realistic goal.

LTH - that is the question! I have a mix of good and bad genetics. So a crap shoot as to what will happen. My wife's parents both lived into their 90's. Yikes!

Good luck to you too.
__________________
jcretire77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2013, 08:13 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Live And Learn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Tampa Bay Area
Posts: 1,688
One more year can get you every time. It got me so bad I signed up for two more years ! Fidelity gave me 90% to 92, FIRECalc gave me 100% to 90 with an average of 600k left over. BUT, then I ran my numbers assuming a 20% market decline which scared the crud out of me. I was still over 90% with FIRECalc but Fidelity dropped me to a shortfall at age 79 (I'm 50 right now).

The reason I "unretired" is that I was losing sleep. I was fine until D-Day was 90 days away and then it hit me that this could really be REAL.

My retirement nest egg is about the size of yours, but I only have about $500 / month budgeted for unknowns. I do however have a budget for new roof, replacement cars, etc that is outside of that.

Your numbers are where I hope to be in 2 years when I finally do retire. I'd say you are in great shape.

FYI - For HC I budget $1k / month for each of us until age 65, and then knock it down to $625 each. I'm figuring that covers premiums, deductibles and out of pocket expenses.

And welcome to the forum !!
__________________
"For the time being no discipline brings joy, but seems grievous and painful; but afterwards it yields a peaceable fruit of righteousness to those who have been trained by it." ~
Hebrews 12:11

ER'd in June 2015 at age 52. Initial WR 3%. 50/40/10 (Equity/Bond/Short Term) AA.
Live And Learn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2013, 09:38 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 5,326
If you are on the fence there are some alternatives to the one more year syndrome: working at home, part time work, having a hobby business, early pensions (if you have them), contracting work, downsizing and moving to a lower cost of living area. We are doing a combination of items on the list.

It sounds like you are already in a condo in a low cost of living are, so that leaves the other options.

Every $100 you can cut from your monthly expenses means needing $36K less for your retirement savings ($100 X 12 months X 30 years). We cut a lot out of our expenses on stuff we didn't miss or no longer needed, like canceling life and disability insurance and getting rid of the land line. We wish we had gone over the expenses in more detail like that all the years we were married. Cutting recurring expenses really adds up over time.

Your Money or Your Life might be a good book to read for you to help you decide whether or not you have enough, if you are on the fence.
__________________
daylatedollarshort is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2013, 09:41 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 5,326
Quote:
Originally Posted by Live And Learn View Post
The reason I "unretired" is that I was losing sleep. I was fine until D-Day was 90 days away and then it hit me that this could really be REAL.
I was just watching a time management video that said a person's main goal in life should be peace of mind, so with that advice in mind you made the right choice.
__________________
daylatedollarshort is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2013, 11:32 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
Larro Darro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Altha
Posts: 161
Welcome to the forum JC. Your numbers look good. Others will slice and dice all that. My advice is to see about a part time job as a golf pro at one of your local courses. You would still have a little money coming in, and you would spend your days on the links. Or just see if you can trade a few lessons for green fees.

For a large part of my life I worked with ball field grass. Or as the pro's would say, sport turf. I only worked in golf for one year, but I really enjoyed my job at a small nine hole course. For one thing, most folks are in a good mood playing golf.

And about your mom. My mom is 85, and she has slowed down a lot this year. So you can plan on a timeline in that neighborhood. But we are lucky in her health care costs. Between medicare and ChampVA, she has almost no out of pocket cost.
__________________
Make good money, five dollars a day.
Made anymore, I might move away.
Larro Darro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2013, 01:51 PM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boise
Posts: 184
Thanks to everyone who replied. I very much appreciate your thoughts and opinions and the time that you took to respond.

First, I wish I could teach golf, I suck, but have a blast anyway.

So far the decision has been to work full time vs part time is simply math. One more year here vs three to four part time years. I'd rather be as close to 100% sure as is possible and would rather not have any work requirements. Not to say I won't change my mind as 35 years is a long darn time.

I hope that we will be able to lower expenses. I have budgeted a bit high and thrown in money for cars. But maybe not enough for the other unexpected surprises of life.

Taxes are an unknown as I have not done any kind of detailed analysis or spoken to an expert. Currently our assets are all over the place. Fidelity, RBC, DADavidson, Osterweis, credit union, bank and probably others (my DW) I know gross numbers, but not enough detail to know how best to draw, what to consolidate, etc. I will work on this before telling my boss to stick it. Just kidding, I actually like him too.

Thanks everyone. I continue to learn and this is a great place to do it.
__________________
jcretire77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2013, 05:02 PM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boise
Posts: 184
Interesting times, my quasi-mega corp is having a 5% workforce reduction. The 'severance' package is minimal and not worth it unless you were retiring within a year. I dug a little deeper into my own AA and see that I am at 71% stock, 16% bond, 13% cash. Interesting to see bond funds move into cash.

Apparently I don't need to worry about long term health care for my mother as her plan is to have the big one right on the tennis court. Solves that one . . .
__________________
jcretire77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2013, 02:50 PM   #13
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boise
Posts: 184
And life gets more interesting. I spoke to my manager and I think that my group may be downsized. Being in the position that I am my comment to him was if someone has to go make it me. Not trying to be selfless, but these guys do need the job more than I do. Not the best Friday afternoon conversation to have and maybe I misread it, but it sure sounds like upper management is cutting to the bone. I'll find out more next week.

Anyway I thought I would try the Quicken Lifetime Planner, rerun Fidelity and FIRECalc and my own spreadsheet and it all looks good regardless of what happens next week. My wife's job would provide health insurance until she is ready to go so that is another non-worry.

Kind of funny, it's a matter of pride, I'd rather retire when I am ready vs being handed a box I was hoping to work at least one more year, if not two. That may change quickly.

My two bits for the day.
__________________
jcretire77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2013, 05:50 PM   #14
Recycles dryer sheets
Larro Darro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Altha
Posts: 161
If you could get a little something something going out the door, a part time situation might give you time on the links, but still put food on the table. But I'm like you, if I were to go, I'd want to decide when.
__________________
Make good money, five dollars a day.
Made anymore, I might move away.
Larro Darro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2013, 05:08 PM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boise
Posts: 184
There was a lot of stress the last couple of months, but everyone survived in my group. I was re-reading some of the comments above and thought I would share that my first estimate of what we spend monthly was pretty high, $7300. In reality about $6000. That was a big drop and made me revisit all the calculators again. Now reading the last few days articles about the health care exchange costs, my estimates seem pretty high there also. Out of pocket max of $12,700. Not sure that I believe it, but still roughly 60% of what I was estimating. We will all definitely know more in the next few days when the different sites go on line. Assets are about $2.3, also a little more than I had first thought.

Bottom line is that I am about 95% sure that we could retire today. SO, just OMY My estimate is that I can take one week of vacation each month for the next eighteen months and retire in the spring of 2015.

Thanks for brightening my day every time I read on this site.
__________________
jcretire77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2013, 05:52 PM   #16
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 406
jcretire77: obamacare subsidy can help for HC . Plenty of discussion on this board. How are you getting 100% in FC? ...108K/2.2M = 4.9% withdrawal rate/year... That's way more than 4% SWR many expert recommend. I'm planning for 3.7% SWR at age55, six years from now, and my expense will be 120K.
__________________
retire2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2013, 09:27 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,629
Today neighbor convinced me to play golf again for 1st time in 3yrs. Despite former single digit handicap, today was so ugly I wished I was back at w#rk. Well- almost

Best of luck jc- whatever you decide.
__________________
ERhoosier is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2013, 09:15 AM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boise
Posts: 184
retire2020, Not sure what we are seeing different. Revisiting our budget put us at 72K / year. With healthcare adding another 13K to total 85K. Is your 108K trying to factor in taxes? Currently at 2.3mill and will add another 100K of savings in 18 months. I assume some SS and a 90 year life. Fidelity RIP says roughly the same thing ($7578/month) retiring next year. 90% confidence with $384K left. Also tried I-ORP a month or so ago. I'm a newbie so maybe just not seeing what you are.

ERHoosier, I sure wish that I had not mocked golf as being an activity for old people! I had a great time playing a ton of tennis through the years, but have really loved playing golf. Truly addicting and wish I had started playing about 40 years ago.

To everyone have a great weekend whether you are ER or working to get there!
__________________
jcretire77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2013, 09:17 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,074
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcretire77 View Post
To everyone have a great weekend whether you are ER or working to get there!
Thanks, but what's a "week end"?
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2013, 09:18 AM   #20
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,412
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Thanks, but what's a "week end"?
It's a work word.
__________________

__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:28 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.