Congratulations on the very nice net worth for age. I am 4 years your senior with commonalities of 3 kids (21,16,9) and a 1.2ish home (getting close to being paid for) and similar income. Based on the excellent info and recommendations of this site we are in month 8 of expense tracking and I think we are unfortunately going to come in at around 2 to 2.5 times what you estimate per year. Would have to echo what others have already said, to RE without knowing expenses is inviting disaster. The comments about your expenses based on your income may be a little off base since you have saved so much (ie, to have saved so much at your age means you were saving a great deal of that juicy income).
Couple of thoughts on your situation:
Age – I personally think cutting the cord completely before the age of 50 with nonworking spouse and 3 kids is really introducing too much risk unless your net worth is more significant than yours (as noted by PB, there are college costs, car costs, and weddings). I like your idea of easing into ER and maybe taking a less stressful job. For me, I’m shooting for 53-55 just to decrease this risk because once I leave, there ain’t no going back.
Medical – I too worry about this but since I’m in the medical field, I have a slight advantage with cost controls. I also believe that the subsidies cannot last in the current too good to be true form. But….if you are going to itemize using schedule A for federal taxes, you can deduct medical expenses greater that 10% AGI, something that no one seems to bring up. So while you are in the “big” house with real estate taxes, you might want to itemize (and bunch real estate taxes if possible). Please keep us posted on your progress and good luck.
This is no social crisis, just another tricky day for you...