Looking to retire next year at 47

[Turboslacker]

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Originally Posted by 38Chevy454 I would like to be in your shoes with the total amounts. One thing that I am concerned, in a similar situation to yours, is health costs. Being only 50 myself, that is really the big unknown for me. I can control my costs and have a lot of skills to fix my own stuff to save money when I am on less retirement income than working. I am really struggling with the health care portion and what to do for that. All I know from my life so far is that health care costs keep rising and becoming higher, even when factored against inflation.

That was my biggest wildcard concern too until I discovered on this Forum how ERrs are utilizing ACA subsides. Now I have my solid FIRE in place with more confidence of making it a reality.

[Live And Learn]

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Originally Posted by Turboslacker That was my biggest wildcard concern too until I discovered on this Forum how ERrs are utilizing ACA subsides. Now I have my solid FIRE in place with more confidence of making it a reality.

Personally I am too conservative in my ER planning to count on getting subsidies. I can imagine a day when there is a net asset test to qualify and many of us would no longer be eligible.

[daylatedollarshort]

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Originally Posted by Live And Learn Personally I am too conservative in my ER planning to count on getting subsidies. I can imagine a day when there is a net asset test to qualify and many of us would no longer be eligible.

Even without the subsidies, the policy Anthem offered us post ACA was $700 cheaper a month than the old policy, plus it has an HSA and lower out of pocket maximums, so unless that changes drastically it still makes health insurance significantly more affordable than it was for us than last year.

[papadad111]

Not to bubble burst but the insurance industry is in a state of upheaval right now and I would not assume those "cheaper than last year" rates continue to apply. Rates can jump and policies can be cancelled on moments notice as we all have read about this year. Worse, no one really knows what will happen to the quality of US Medical Care as the system gets more and more regulated by a government who is looking out for us (NOT). I do think conservative medical cost estimates are essential - if nothing else, to be able to hop on a plane in some cases and seek better medical care or cheaper treatment or both - beyond the borders of the USA.

ACA is a mess. And with fewer young and healthy signing up...and more old and otherwise intelligible citizens signing up... We've not even begun to see the cost escalation on health insurance.

I think conservative estimates are essential to successful retirement plans.

[BigE]

Congratulations on the very nice net worth for age. I am 4 years your senior with commonalities of 3 kids (21,16,9) and a 1.2ish home (getting close to being paid for) and similar income. Based on the excellent info and recommendations of this site we are in month 8 of expense tracking and I think we are unfortunately going to come in at around 2 to 2.5 times what you estimate per year. Would have to echo what others have already said, to RE without knowing expenses is inviting disaster. The comments about your expenses based on your income may be a little off base since you have saved so much (ie, to have saved so much at your age means you were saving a great deal of that juicy income).
Couple of thoughts on your situation:
Age – I personally think cutting the cord completely before the age of 50 with nonworking spouse and 3 kids is really introducing too much risk unless your net worth is more significant than yours (as noted by PB, there are college costs, car costs, and weddings). I like your idea of easing into ER and maybe taking a less stressful job. For me, I’m shooting for 53-55 just to decrease this risk because once I leave, there ain’t no going back.
Medical – I too worry about this but since I’m in the medical field, I have a slight advantage with cost controls. I also believe that the subsidies cannot last in the current too good to be true form. But….if you are going to itemize using schedule A for federal taxes, you can deduct medical expenses greater that 10% AGI, something that no one seems to bring up. So while you are in the “big” house with real estate taxes, you might want to itemize (and bunch real estate taxes if possible). Please keep us posted on your progress and good luck.