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Old 01-29-2008, 06:01 PM   #121
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:02 PM   #122
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No, but we sure know how to squelch it.
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:19 PM   #123
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No, but we sure know how to squelch it.
Alas - I like cookies! Snicker Doodles but you had to eat em fresh - my Mom's always turned to rocks in a day or so.

" Never apologize, It's a sign of weakness." John Wayne's character in She Wore a Yellow Ribbon."

I submit that contrary to some opinions on this forum - I have never been to Missoula, I still like the idea of dividend stock ladders, and am working in my spare time on my 'general theory of unified chickenheartness - the strong form.'

I will admit in my sinful past (1980's) before I became a born again Boglehead - used to borrow co worker Huel's copes of NoLoad Fund X from time to time - but like Clinton who never inhaled - I NEVER paid the 149 bucks.

heh heh heh - ok ok so I did own some Psst Wellesley back then and if you twist my arm - The Pats have a good football team.

Snicker doodles that don't get hard after a day - that's hard. Momentum investing might be easier. Or not .
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:21 PM   #124
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Woohoo! We did it! We repelled the invader! High-5's all around.

The *last* thing we needed around here was another self-made 40-something millionaire with a slightly different take on the path to get there.

Is it safe to talk about passive index investing again?
I was hoping for the momentum investing thread.
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:25 PM   #125
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Mommy initially came on like a missionary coming to save the savages, but I was kind of starting to respect her.

Oh well, back to watching Montel.
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:25 PM   #126
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Well, there sure is a lot to be said for momentum investing. I used it in the late 90's. Hard part is you have to know when to stop before things start tumbling when a bear hits, because the momentum is a little stronger on the way down than it was on the way up. Worse than snickerdoodles, it suckerdoodles.

Oh, and once you've figured out that you have to stop for a while, you have to figure out when exactly is the good time to start again.

But clearly some folks have figured out this combination of market timing and mass group psychological evaluation.

This from a guy who used to be a stock picking, momentum investing, leverage using, financial porn reading, investment scheme subscribing, active management madman.

No free lunches. No sure fire systems. No way to beat the system long term. You may be lucky, you may fall victim. Or you can just play the smart money.

Gambling sure is a lot more fun though, as long as you know thats what you're doing.
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:29 PM   #127
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I was hoping for the momentum investing thread.
It would never make it past the pitchforks and torches.

I think there was a guy on the diehards board who followed the same newsletter. Not as his main strategy, but sort of as another horse in a race against other reasonable sounding strategies. He didn't get a great reception there.

FWIW, here's the last 5 years of FUNDX vs SP500 vs small-cap value. Hard to separate signal from noise in that timeframe.

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Old 01-29-2008, 06:30 PM   #128
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I'm disappointed. Not surprised to get a peek at what was just below the surface, but disappointed.

Well, ever onward as we close another episode of "As the World Turns" here on WFIRE.
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:30 PM   #129
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As a relatively new participant on this board, I found this entire exchange with MMND to be quite bizzare. Does this kind of thing happen frequently here? I enjoy learning and interacting with the folks here. As I have posted before, I am one of those super risk adverse types with most of my savings in CDs and the TSP G fund. Even so, I have not experienced anyone putting down my position on investing. I think perhaps this is because I didn't suggest my ideas were better than anyone elses. In fact, I know many of you have done much better with your investments than I have. Because of this, I hope to learn enough to introduce a little more risk and return in my portfolio as I gain confidence, knowledge and experience.
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:30 PM   #130
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Momentum investing almost sounds like market timing to me. However I am probably wrong. Since I am a savage.
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:36 PM   #131
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Momentum investing almost sounds like market timing to me. However I am probably wrong. Since I am a savage.
It's based on behavioral finance. The idea that investors run in herds.

Not that we've ever seen the herding instinct in play here on ERF. We're above that sort of behavior.
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:39 PM   #132
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Woohoo! We did it! We repelled the invader! High-5's all around.

The *last* thing we needed around here was another self-made 40-something millionaire with a slightly different take on the path to get there.

Is it safe to talk about passive index investing again?
Well, whenever you feel that you have recoverd from your loss, we could start a discussion about momentum investing. MMND may return, and even if she doesn't come back, there is someone on the board named Poyet who has mentioned a momentum and timing method that he or she uses. S/he amy have gone into some detail; I don't know.

For me, once I have seen that round wheels work well, I don't keep searching for some other shape that might be better.

All investing approaches have weaknesses. The major weakness in investing in a diversified group of dividend paying individual stocks that seem to have low prices to long term absolute value is that you make a mistake in the analysis. Another risk is that you forget your diversification discipline, or get frustrated and start accepting "relative value", or adjusting your discount rate or whatever.

I haven't thought as much about index investing, but a major risk would seem to be that overvaluation market wide tends to be ignored; and these overvaluations can be corrected. Supposedly adequate asset-allocation diversification protects against this. This board is full of people who got to retirement riding this horse.

Mutual fund market timing is great during trending markets, not so good if the trending stops.

The relative strength method that I believe was being put forward by MMND is different again, and I really don't know anything about it. A newsletter writer with a good record named Dan Sullivan promotes this, as well as a similar strategy with individual stocks.

I think Nords has studied trading methods, he may have something to impart.

And if not, there is always the promotional literature at No Load *X, if you feel drawn to that.

My personal difficulty with any market dependent method that doesn't have a strong value component is the risk of getting stuck with the stuff. If the market stopped tomorrow, but business continued to operate I would be OK. Many stocks buried in mutual funds are crap that no one should own, at least not at the quoted prices.

Ha
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:41 PM   #133
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It's based on behavioral finance. The idea that investors run in herds.

Not that we've ever seen the herding instinct in play here on ERF. We're above that sort of behavior.
See I could have used a quality thread on it. Now I feel sort of cheated. .. Moo
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:55 PM   #134
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:56 PM   #135
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Alas - I like cookies! Snicker Doodles but you had to eat em fresh - my Mom's always turned to rocks in a day or so.
Microwave them for about 15 seconds. Or eat the whole batch right away ;-)

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Old 01-29-2008, 06:58 PM   #136
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I will admit in my sinful past (1980's) before I became a born again Boglehead - used to borrow co worker Huel's copes of NoLoad Fund X from time to time - but like Clinton who never inhaled - I NEVER paid the 149 bucks.
I poked around Fundx's site... does their newsletter reveal their methodology, or just their fund picks?
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:18 PM   #137
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As a relatively new participant on this board, I found this entire exchange with MMND to be quite bizzare. Does this kind of thing happen frequently here? I enjoy learning and interacting with the folks here. As I have posted before, I am one of those super risk adverse types with most of my savings in CDs and the TSP G fund. Even so, I have not experienced anyone putting down my position on investing. I think perhaps this is because I didn't suggest my ideas were better than anyone elses. In fact, I know many of you have done much better with your investments than I have. Because of this, I hope to learn enough to introduce a little more risk and return in my portfolio as I gain confidence, knowledge and experience.
I've only been on the board for a bit over a year but on other retirement boards for 8 years and other internet discussion for 26 years... I have
seen plenty of weirder behavior, but still I say that ranked up pretty darn high in bizzare factor. If you just go by her blog, MMND is seems a like a perfectly normal LBYM type (ok admittedly not overspending is weird ). Sure she is bit cocky but no worse than plenty on the board, and frankly if you don't take strong opinions on blog it is boring to read.

Her Hi I am post sounded like something from the introduction speech a political candidate would get from a key supporter. The candidate if he had any brains would say something like wow thanks for the intro, but really I am not nearly that perfect followed by a self-deprecating story.

In contrast I went back and looked at mine a few sentences, retired moved to Hawaii working on a CFP heck even intercst was exceedingly modest.

After the board antibodies kicked in several of us offered her a lifeline. I thought for a moment she was going to grap the bouy Martha offered but
I guess she decide that suicide bombing with her last post was a more dramatic exit.

A pity because I think momementum invest discussion would interesting. I also curious to see how her investing strategy evolved to NoLoadX, it is somewhat unusual and being female makes it even more uncommon. In general women tend to be much more cautious on following risky investing strategy, which as we all know makes them typically better

I give all board postesr 3 strikes before putting them in my penalty box. I am not sure there are enough pieces left after the last post to bother looking for a 3rd strike.
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:37 PM   #138
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I have to say I am disappointed by MMND's last post. I thought she was doing a great job defending herself and keeping everything together and respectful. Then she lost it. I guess she read over stuff and got angrier and angrier. I'm sorry this happened. I liked having another mom with still young kids who was retired. I hardly know anyone who is like that, irl. Well, actually just one friend who kicked her DH out back to work after 6 weeks. oh well.
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:48 PM   #139
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The late great 'step daughter in spare room' used to have her T shirt - When God Created Man - She was only kidding! She also had a patented stare - "Men! - when in doubt - kick em in the balls!"

I looked at the blog - supports some good causes and I'm I'm curious how diversified(dast I say correlated?) her 19 fund/ETF and 2 bond positions are.

No guts, no glory.

Plus I'd like to move beyond the 15 second nuke or dunk em in green tea with the Snicker Doodles.

heh heh heh - remember I think even intercst was an evil stock picker - and beat the academic odds! So who's gonna take the spread on the Pats?
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:49 PM   #140
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She lasted longer than most new posters who get attacked by the antibodies here.

I think it's a pretty natural reaction to lash out when cornered.

If you read through the attack posts, I think you'll find that her parody wasn't too far from the truth.
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