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My 30 day countdown has begun!
Old 03-07-2017, 02:18 PM   #1
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My 30 day countdown has begun!

Between now and then I'll turn 59. I've run my numbers through every simulator I can find in addition to my own spreadsheets. If I use my most pessimistic assumptions (e.g. - only get 50% of the expected equity when selling our house, only get 75% of my SS), Firecalc has me at an 86% success rate. If I use "normal" assumptions, I am at 95-100% success.

There are a few things that worry me:
1) Sequence of return risk. Market is currently up as are my investments. That can certainly change. And with 2 kids graduating HS next year, reducing my expenses within the next 1-2 years is highly unlikely. After that, I am only planning on a 5-10% reduction in expenses per year for a few years. That could change as well.

2) I will need healthcare to cover the gap and that cost is definitely something that could change. I've gone through the ACA enrollment process so I know what my costs will be this year. After that is anybody's guess. So I've estimated on the high side.

But one of the things that I've always done well is adapt. So I'm not going to worry too much.

Wish me luck.
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Old 03-07-2017, 02:42 PM   #2
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Congratulations! Your worries are quite normal for those getting close to pulling the plug. Personally, I started off with a 3 year near-cash cushion so I knew I wouldn't have to dip into equity holdings at a bad time. Of course, that was near the beginning of this market run so it turned out not to be an issue at all, but we never know where we are in a market cycle.

One thing to look forward to - many of us have found that we can reduce expenses after retiring because we have more available time. Things like cooking from scratch rather than eating out, going to the discount matinees, time for comparison shopping, doing things around the house ourselves instead of hiring someone, etc.

Enjoy crossing those last 30 days off the calendar!
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Old 03-07-2017, 02:51 PM   #3
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Congrats!

Are you doing anything to lessen the impact of sequence of returns? Are you changing your AA for the first few years of ER?

I'm curious because I most likely have a similar situation when I begin retirement.
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Old 03-07-2017, 02:51 PM   #4
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Congrats!

1. Sequence of return risk is what Firecalc etc are giving your projections based on. Unless you anticipate things being worse than they've ever been in our recorded markets (including the Great Depression etc), then I'd trust the calculators. If you do think they're going to be that bad then I'd evaluate if you really believe that or if you're just being a "worry-wart"...

2. yep, who knows what will happen with that...


Good luck and enjoy! I can't wait to get there myself
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Mazeltov!
Old 03-07-2017, 07:43 PM   #5
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Mazeltov!

May the coming month pass as quickly as is pleasant for you; not so slow as to become irksome, nor so fast that it sparks apprehension.

It is way above my pay grade to ask whether you have considered keeping a diary in the closing month. Kind of like those confessionals they have on reality TV shows where each cast member confides private thoughts. As your scheduled departure date nears, does the concept of leaving w*rk become more strange or more comfortable? Do the days become longer? What last minute housekeeping or bureaucratic issues appeared? How is your family reacting? Not that I'm suggesting you should do this, but I think it might be a fascinating thread here. Just sayin'.

Anyway, good luck. I'm TMY behind you, so while I can't quite see it yet I know it's right over the horizon.
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Old 03-08-2017, 03:41 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MBAustin View Post
Congratulations! Your worries are quite normal for those getting close to pulling the plug. Personally, I started off with a 3 year near-cash cushion so I knew I wouldn't have to dip into equity holdings at a bad time. Of course, that was near the beginning of this market run so it turned out not to be an issue at all, but we never know where we are in a market cycle.

One thing to look forward to - many of us have found that we can reduce expenses after retiring because we have more available time. Things like cooking from scratch rather than eating out, going to the discount matinees, time for comparison shopping, doing things around the house ourselves instead of hiring someone, etc.

Enjoy crossing those last 30 days off the calendar!
+1 on reducing expenses. We found that we ride bikes and walk so much that we did not need a second vehicle. Huge savings when you do that!

Congrats....
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Old 03-09-2017, 09:10 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mdlerth View Post
May the coming month pass as quickly as is pleasant for you; not so slow as to become irksome, nor so fast that it sparks apprehension.

It is way above my pay grade to ask whether you have considered keeping a diary in the closing month. Kind of like those confessionals they have on reality TV shows where each cast member confides private thoughts. As your scheduled departure date nears, does the concept of leaving w*rk become more strange or more comfortable? Do the days become longer? What last minute housekeeping or bureaucratic issues appeared? How is your family reacting? Not that I'm suggesting you should do this, but I think it might be a fascinating thread here. Just sayin'.

Anyway, good luck. I'm TMY behind you, so while I can't quite see it yet I know it's right over the horizon.
Thanks for the diary suggestion. Hadn't thought of that, but when I'm struggling with a decision or concern, it has always helped me to write it out.
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Old 03-09-2017, 09:15 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Carpediem View Post
Congrats!

Are you doing anything to lessen the impact of sequence of returns? Are you changing your AA for the first few years of ER?

I'm curious because I most likely have a similar situation when I begin retirement.
I am seriously considering changing my AA as I've always been on the aggressive side (75 eq/25 bond). I will want to rollover my 401k into either Vanguard or Fidelity as the options and costs are better than where it is now. I have about 65% of my retirement funds in Vanguard (3 fund portfolio), so my inclination is to move the 401k (35% of retirement assets) into Fidelity. I like Vanguard but the voice in my head says not to put all my eggs in one basket.
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Old 03-09-2017, 03:02 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Mdlerth View Post
Not that I'm suggesting you should do this, but I think it might be a fascinating thread here. Just sayin'.

Anyway, good luck. I'm TMY behind you so while I can't quite see it yet I know it's right over the horizon.
Mdlerth, you and I are in similar situations, with similar states of mind, I think I'm probably TMY, and I keep thinking over and analyzing how this whole retirement thing is proceeding. And, like you, I have looked in vain for a thread for this purpose. I've started a coupleabout making it through the last couple of years, but wonder whether there is (or why there isn't) a specific thread for this - and I'm not even sure what forum it would fit into. There's nothing really specifically pre-retirement except money calculations.

I've seen a couple of people mention "class of 2018" or "class of 2019" which seemed like obvious threads, and yet I never found any. So, Mdlerth, if you start a "Class of 2019" thread, I PROMISE to reply. And if you don't want to start, I will, if YOU promise to reply.

It's surprising to me how many recent retirees are not able to *think* about what is similar and what is different. I've asked some specific questions, but the reaction usually is vague, e.g. "I haven't really thought about it, I'm still getting used to it," or "I'm busier than ever, I don't know what happened." I'm determined that that's not going to happen with me. I'm going to observe this change, as it fascinates me.

And, to keep myself from hijacking this thread, I want to offer congratulations to the OP!
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Old 03-09-2017, 03:16 PM   #10
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Congrats! When the 30 day period is over, welcome to the rest of your FIRED life. It is grand on this side. Good luck.
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