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Old 06-17-2013, 08:54 PM   #21
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Unless you have something you really need to do, or 99% faith in your trading, Look for a better job.
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Old 06-17-2013, 09:13 PM   #22
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I know of several reliable 10%+ trading systems. They all share a common problem in that they work for a while, until they don't. If you want to take a flier on a system of your own invention, go ahead and use it to pile up cash, but do not count on it as a perpetual profitable method. It will not last forever.

If you are looking for advice, your best bet is to keep the lucrative job and figure out how to reduce the stress. Or find a new job that can be less stressful. You'll have a lot more options and more ways to still reach ER in case of unexpected events than if you walk away and bet it all on your trading system
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Old 06-17-2013, 09:45 PM   #23
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I want some.
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Old 06-18-2013, 08:14 AM   #24
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I think the one more year syndrome is telling you something: you're not confident that your 10-15% returns are that reliable.
+1

What will you do when your 10-15% returns become NEG 10-15+% for yr or more (as happens to almost every investor over time). Perhaps what you're feeling is not need to ER but to change careers. I know several folks who had some solid early success in investment field before their system/luck/whatever went bad & they went back to college to change careers.
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Old 06-18-2013, 07:24 PM   #25
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Welcome to the forum.
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Very conservative with investments. Not ER'd yet, 48 years old. Please do not take anything I write or imply as legal, financial or medical advice directed to you. Contact your own financial advisor, healthcare provider, or attorney for financial, medical and legal advice.
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Old 06-18-2013, 07:39 PM   #26
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It sounds like you are too young to retire, not really FI, and don't know what you want to do. Find a job you like and LBYM.
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Old 06-18-2013, 11:50 PM   #27
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Luckily, a few years ago, I got into trading and have come up with a way to reliably return 10-15% every year.
"Past performance of active managers is a very poor predictor of their future performance."
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Old 06-19-2013, 07:10 AM   #28
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Back in 98'-99' time frame I was in my mid 30's and had about $600k in investable assets. I had the idea that if the market continued to post 15%-20% returns that I could retire and draw about $100k/yr without any worries. It was a nice fleeting thought but not based on long term reality.

Good news is, I stayed in the work force. Now I have close to 6 times the assets and now believe I can let go pretty soon (will be 50 at the end of the year). A good plan in my opinion has to be based on close to worst case scenarios. Firecalc does a nice job of this and so does Fidelity RIP.
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Old 06-19-2013, 11:09 AM   #29
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Snoopy80,

You should really think about taking a leave from work.
Talk to HR and find out what your options are.
Taking 6-8 weeks off will recharge your batteries and help you think better.
Your job will still be there when you get back.
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Old 06-21-2013, 02:58 PM   #30
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Thank you all for your advice.

I've talked to my manager and will be taking the month of July off and will re-evaluate my situation. Perhaps all I need is some time off to recharge and comeback. But, I am secretly hoping I don't. Either way...thank you all for your responses!!
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Old 06-21-2013, 03:42 PM   #31
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Thank you all for your advice.

I've talked to my manager and will be taking the month of July off and will re-evaluate my situation. Perhaps all I need is some time off to recharge and comeback. But, I am secretly hoping I don't. Either way...thank you all for your responses!!
This is great! Take time off, have some time with your dad while you can. I lost my dad on 1/1/13 from a heart attack, so it really hits home. I was lucky to have some really good memories with him in December, but my brother didn't, he was planning to hang out with him "soon".

Spend some time during your month thinking about what you want to do with the rest of your life. I think it would be really good for you to find something you're interested in even if it pays less. You've got a good amount saved up that you can probably take a pay cut pretty easily, and just let your nest egg grow.
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Old 06-22-2013, 08:33 AM   #32
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Nobody on this planet has a system that reliably returns 10%-15% a year. Do not quit your job based on this faulty assumption. Your 15% gain could quickly turn into a 15% loss and then where would you be?
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Old 06-26-2013, 12:03 PM   #33
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Nobody on this planet has a system that reliably returns 10%-15% a year. Do not quit your job based on this faulty assumption. Your 15% gain could quickly turn into a 15% loss and then where would you be?
A ridiculous statement since you are not familiar with everyone's system on this planet.

Regardless of that snafu...if the spirit of your statement is that there are no guarantees in the market, you are right and I spend most of my time focusing on risk management to get me through the rough times and it has served me well.
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Old 06-26-2013, 01:54 PM   #34
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Luckily, a few years ago, I got into trading and have come up with a way to reliably return 10-15% every year.
Snoopy, I'm not going to ask you to reveal your secrets, but would you mind telling us in exactly which years you got 10-15% returns?

I'll step out a little further and ask what return you got each of the (few) years you have been trading.

To be totally candid, your claim sounds incredible -- over a long term.
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Old 06-26-2013, 02:34 PM   #35
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We've had a lot of warm-up, now where's the pitch?
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Old 06-26-2013, 03:06 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Accumulating Wealth View Post
Nobody on this planet has a system that reliably returns 10%-15% a year. Do not quit your job based on this faulty assumption. Your 15% gain could quickly turn into a 15% loss and then where would you be?
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Originally Posted by Snoopy80 View Post
A ridiculous statement since you are not familiar with everyone's system on this planet.

Regardless of that snafu...if the spirit of your statement is that there are no guarantees in the market, you are right and I spend most of my time focusing on risk management to get me through the rough times and it has served me well.

You do not have to know everybody's system on the planet... there are really only a few 'systems' and all have proven to be wrong...

Probably one of the best 'systems' is Warren Buffet with Berkshire... I did a quick look at the 40 years of returns for them between 1967 and 2007...

Guess what... there are 7 years with negative results... (and the list did not have the last few years when I bet there was another one or two)...

There were also 7 more years of positive return, but less than 10%...

So, if one of the best investors in the world has earned over 10% a year in 26 of 40 years.... I doubt your 'system' can do it year in and year out...


And to be clear... a system is a process that can be repeated by others.... not some dumb luck which cannot....


PS... Berkshire avg annual return was over 24%.... so in total he did very well... and still had losses...
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Old 06-26-2013, 03:20 PM   #37
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Snoopy, I'm not going to ask you to reveal your secrets, but would you mind telling us in exactly which years you got 10-15% returns?

I'll step out a little further and ask what return you got each of the (few) years you have been trading.

To be totally candid, your claim sounds incredible -- over a long term.
Hey, No man..it's no secret. I just sell options on futures. The reason is that futures use SPAN margin and for the same % return you use less margin than say selling options on stocks.

I don't want to give out any figures but, since 2007 the range has been between 5% and 35%, with the average & median falling between 10-15%.

And I sell options naked primarily on ES and CL futures.
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Old 06-26-2013, 03:26 PM   #38
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You do not have to know everybody's system on the planet... there are really only a few 'systems' and all have proven to be wrong...

Probably one of the best 'systems' is Warren Buffet with Berkshire... I did a quick look at the 40 years of returns for them between 1967 and 2007...

Guess what... there are 7 years with negative results... (and the list did not have the last few years when I bet there was another one or two)...

There were also 7 more years of positive return, but less than 10%...

So, if one of the best investors in the world has earned over 10% a year in 26 of 40 years.... I doubt your 'system' can do it year in and year out...


And to be clear... a system is a process that can be repeated by others.... not some dumb luck which cannot....


PS... Berkshire avg annual return was over 24%.... so in total he did very well... and still had losses...
I have tried to make money by buying options and have failed, but if someone tells that they have been able to do that for several years....I would not respond by saying 'no, it cannot be done'. A more accurate statement would be 'I cannot make money buying options.'

So...when you have no experience selling options or being profitable by selling options...your opinion on systems that sell options are invalid.
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Old 06-26-2013, 04:43 PM   #39
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So, here is my dilemma. I am 33, single, no kids and renting. I have 25k debt (I financed a car recently). I currently have a job that pays in the low 6 figures, but I just hate having a boss and more importantly it is a desk job that involves staring at a computer all day long and I can see my eyes and health going down the tubes bit by but every year.

./.

Please help me think rationally and come up with the best decision.
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I just sell options on futures. The reason is that futures use SPAN margin and for the same % return you use less margin than say selling options on stocks.

Options, futures & margin. What could possibly go wrong?

If you insist on that trading then keep the job, pay off the car, and build a portfolio that will sustain you for the rest of your life with a low withdrawal rate and low risk, diversified allocations. Then you can quit and do what you want.
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Old 06-26-2013, 05:04 PM   #40
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I have tried to make money by buying options and have failed, but if someone tells that they have been able to do that for several years....I would not respond by saying 'no, it cannot be done'. A more accurate statement would be 'I cannot make money buying options.'

So...when you have no experience selling options or being profitable by selling options...your opinion on systems that sell options are invalid.


Take a look back at the post... nobody said you could not make money over the past few years on a system.... we just question that you can do it consistently over the long term.... IIRC, (not looking it up), you stated you had a system that 'reliably' returned 10% to 15% per year... now that you posted your system, you claim is BS... (which, BTW is what people have said)....

Not that you have not had gains the last few years, but it is not a reliable system...

But, good luck to you anyhow....
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