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Unemployment or Early Retirement?
Old 05-19-2017, 08:33 PM   #1
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Unemployment or Early Retirement?

This is the potential dilemma Iím facing. I recently learned that my office will be closing down later this year and I will be out of a job. My job experience and skills are quite specialized and the job market for me right now is not good. Iím having a hard time even finding jobs to apply for even though Iím somewhat flexible about location. Iíve seen a couple of low-level jobs that donít pay well, but Iím not at all sure they would be willing to hire someone overqualified. If Iím being realistic, extended unemployment is a very possible scenario.

Thereís not an alternative career that Iím really interested in. And, at the age of 52, Iím not sure that it would be a good investment of time and money to obtain education or training for a different career.

So, in light of my current situation, Iím wondering if age 52 is the time to retire.

I have a lot of concerns, though. Neither of my parents lived to enjoy retirement, so Iíve vaguely hoped that I would be able to retire early. But I was thinking of more like age 58 and only if I had financial security and access to health insurance. And I thought that Iíd have more plans in place by that time.

In order to be able to retire, Iíd probably have to live somewhere relatively affordable. Iím single and donít have kids, so I have flexibility with regard to moving. Iíd like to live somewhere on the West Coast. Iíve lived most of my adult life in major California cities, but California is probably too expensive, so maybe Oregon or Washington? However, Iím a fairly introverted person and worry that I would be very isolated moving somewhere new. Iíve moved before to cities where I knew nobody, but I usually had school or work to help me ease in socially. So, figuring out where to move and how to adapt is a bit daunting.

Iím also trying to figure out if retiring now is a viable option financially.
I have a good understanding of my current expenses. But, figuring out my expenses in retirement is more difficult. I will have COBRA when my job ends, but then I will have to find health insurance. I never have gone without health insurance even when I was not working or when my employer did not provide insurance. I donít think that I could live with the stress if I didnít have insurance. Without knowing what is going to happen with health insurance in the U.S., itís hard to predict expenses. Iím also having a hard time figuring out what my taxes and housing costs will be, especially since I donít know where Iíll live.

But, in the meantime, I want to figure out what I can afford to spend annually if I were to retire later this year.

I do not own a home. These are the assets I do have:

Taxable accounts:

Cash- $126k
Stock funds: $425k

Roth IRA:

$163k stock funds

Tax-deferred Retirement Funds:

$492k stock funds
$172k bond funds

I hope to save an additional $25k by the time my job ends Ė about half in cash and half in retirement accounts. So, depending on the market, Iíll have around $1,400,000.

Pension:

At age 62 I get a $15k per year pension. I think the COLA starts then. Itís a deferred FERS pension. Iím not sure how to factor that into my calculations.

And then Social Security. The good folks at the SSA project that I will receive $31,860 per year at my full retirement age of 67. That obviously wonít happen if I retire soon. So, Iím not sure what I should do with this information. Iím thinking of assuming that it will be about $20k?

Iím overwhelmed and trying to sort through my options realistically. I'm hoping to learn a lot from this forum.

Any input or suggestions would be welcome.

Thanks!
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Old 05-19-2017, 08:51 PM   #2
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OK. Easy one first. For social, go here: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/anypia/anypia.html Download the calculator, get your record of earnings if you don't already have it, input the numbers, then fill the fields with zeroes from 2018 on out. Will likely give you a better result than you expect given the bend points. Most [OK, MANY] here tend to discount the SS$ by 25% to account for the projected shortfall, but that is likely to be overly conservative for most.

Is that pension fully funded and safe to rely upon?

For your spending from portfolio, what is your life expectancy? Normal, plus or minus? IF projected to 82, you can probably go with 4% withdrawal rate--particularly if you have flexibility in your spending and can cut as needed in bad years. Search this site, and the web at large for "trinity study," "sustainable withdrawal rate," and/or "SWR." Because of social and pension coming in, you can play with this and front load portfolio withdrawals to get level spending. You can withdraw contributions to Roths with no penalty..... Have you ran firecalc, which is accessible from the bottom border of all pages on this site?

How much do you "need" to spend? How much do you "want" to spend? Those are your key numbers. Have you tracked your spending for the past couple of years? If not, is a lot of it on credit cards, which can make it easy to resurrect those records?

As for health insurance, my understanding is that California (for all of its perceived flaws to those of us in flyover country!) is a pretty good place to be for individual health insurance plans in retirement.... You can get price quotes that are pretty sound and work from there. It may be cheaper to use COBRA for 2018, but compare carefully.
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Old 05-19-2017, 09:58 PM   #3
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In HCOL areas of California and now Washington and Oregon, I would be concerned about the cost of renting and what the increases will be over your life. Rents in the Bay Area are not affordable and I understand Seattle and Portland are breathtakingly expensive as well. How do you plan to pay for housing if rent goes up faster than the rate of inflation? Have you thought about buying something that would meet your needs?
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Old 05-19-2017, 10:19 PM   #4
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Since you are single, you can move anywhere in the country, and if you are not going to work then picking a State with low cost of living, or low cost health insurance would save you a lot of money.

In some other States, a $100K can buy you a house

Can you live on $55K per year, knowing you need to rent ?

If you skill set is rare, then take a contract job, surely somewhere in the country or other country you skill is needed, and of course multiply your salary.
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Old 05-19-2017, 10:51 PM   #5
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Is that pension fully funded and safe to rely upon?
It's a deferred FERS pension from the federal government. So, for now, I'm gonna say "yes." I'm just not sure how to plug it into FIRECALC. I don't start getting the pension until I'm 62. And the COLA doesn't start until then. So, can I really check the box that says it's "inflation adjusted?"

Thanks for the Social Security calculator! Once I figure out how to download it and find it on my computer, that will be very helpful. (I am not in IT!)

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Originally Posted by 2017ish View Post
For your spending from portfolio, what is your life expectancy? Normal, plus or minus?
I suppose that's hard to know. My parents died young, but I live a healthier lifestyle than they did. So, who knows? The stress from my current situation probably isn't good for me. But if I croak early, at least I won't run out of money!

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How much do you "need" to spend? How much do you "want" to spend? Those are your key numbers. Have you tracked your spending for the past couple of years?
Yes, I have tracked my spending. The trouble I'm having is figuring out the things that will be different. How much will health insurance cost? How much will housing cost if I move? How do I figure out what my taxes will be?

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Originally Posted by 2017ish View Post
As for health insurance, my understanding is that California (for all of its perceived flaws to those of us in flyover country!) is a pretty good place to be for individual health insurance plans in retirement.... You can get price quotes that are pretty sound and work from there. It may be cheaper to use COBRA for 2018, but compare carefully.
California is likely to be a good place for health insurance, and it's where most of my friends are. But the cost of living is just so high.

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Originally Posted by Another Reader View Post
In HCOL areas of California and now Washington and Oregon, I would be concerned about the cost of renting and what the increases will be over your life. Rents in the Bay Area are not affordable and I understand Seattle and Portland are breathtakingly expensive as well. How do you plan to pay for housing if rent goes up faster than the rate of inflation? Have you thought about buying something that would meet your needs?
Having spent a lot of time living in the Bay Area, I know all too well how much it costs. That's why I'm looking elsewhere. I know that Seattle and Portland are increasing, too, but I don't actually have to live in Seattle or Portland. I can live in outer suburbs or elsewhere in Oregon or Washington. I don't have to live in these states. OTOH, I don't want to just pick the cheapest place in the country either. I'm not sure how to go about finding the right place.

I have thought about buying something. I'm not sure how realistic that is, even if I did know where I wanted to live. I've never owned a home before. (Have I mentioned that I've lived in the Bay Area? ) I don't know if it's feasible to get a mortgage if I'm not employed and don't yet have income from a pension and Social Security. If I just bought outright, I'd have to sell mutual funds and immediately would have a lot of capital gains and the taxes to go with that. Also, if I used a lot from my non-retirement savings to buy a house, I'd worry about eventually having to tap my retirement accounts too soon and having to pay penalties.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:09 PM   #6
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my gut tells me you will have enough if you move to an outer suburb of one of the cities you have mentioned. But, as you contemplate life in retirement, you need to decide if that is where you want to live. Do you have any extended family or close friends you would like to be near as the retirement years unfold? Since you I assume at least at first will continue to rent, you may want to try spending 6 months or a year or thereabouts someplace new that perhaps you would like to experience now that you will have the time? Regarding staying in the bay area, contract work makes more sense than retirement due to the high cost of housing.
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Old 05-20-2017, 12:17 AM   #7
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Here in the Midwest (MI, OH, PA, IN, KY, TN) there are lots of very nice houses in the $100-150k range, and also condos (if you are concerned about the continuing costs of upkeep). Many of the medium sized cities in this region (Think Columbus, OH, Cincinnati, Louisville, Indianapolis, St. Louis, KC) offer nice social, arts and professional sports options. Similar home values and entertainment options exist in the South.

If you move and begin volunteer work, or have a strong relationship with a particular church, it is easier to make new friends, connections, etc. (Our neighborhood association is looking for helpers and that is a good way to meet people if a new resident.)

DW and I enjoy reading "cheapest places to retire to" articles online. You might find some good leads.
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Old 05-20-2017, 06:35 AM   #8
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I'm sure you are nervous about the unknowns. But try to think of this as a new and possibly exciting adventure. I would also consider several states out west. Include AZ, UT, NV maybe even NM. Surely you can find an interesting place to live at a reasonable cost. Where ever you go I would rent for awhile to see if you like the area. You may have to move 2-3 times to find the right spot. Also, find a fun part time job for extra pocket change and a way to meet people.

Again....try to think of this as as exciting new adventure. Best of luck.
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Old 05-20-2017, 04:30 PM   #9
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In some other States, a $100K can buy you a house
WV is also one of those states. Not long ago I saw a nice looking "starter home" (2 bedroom, 1 bath) listed for $99k. Go further south into the state and they get even less but in some areas quality of life is not great. For one person that's all you need.

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I
Thanks for the Social Security calculator! Once I figure out how to download it and find it on my computer, that will be very helpful. (I am not in IT!)ve

I found the online estimator worked fine for me. I forget now, but it was either spot on or within a couple of dollars.

https://www.ssa.gov/retire/estimator.html
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Old 05-20-2017, 05:11 PM   #10
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If you haven't read this yet, it is a very good place to start:

Some Important Questions to Answer Before Asking - Can I Retire?
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Old 05-20-2017, 06:15 PM   #11
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First off, without knowing what you have been doing it is hard to make suggestions. That said, there is a good possibility that your skills may be in demand somewhere or that they may be transferable to some other line of work. You would be surprised. Someone may also show up from the depths and need exactly what you do. I am in that situation right now.


Second, if you are single and likely to stay that way, there are a LOT of places where your stash will put you up just fine. There is far more to life than California, and some of that is not in the US. If I were single at your age, I'd buy a nice little place as home base in a low cost location (Fort Morgan would turn my crank, but I would guess that is not everyone's idea of fun) and then roam to suit my fancy. Do some navel gazing: do you absolutely have to be on the West coast?
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Old 05-20-2017, 08:26 PM   #12
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Thanks so much for all the replies!

Does anybody have suggestions for resources that will help me figure out what my taxes will be?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34 View Post
I found the online estimator worked fine for me. I forget now, but it was either spot on or within a couple of dollars.

https://www.ssa.gov/retire/estimator.html
Thanks! I couldn't get the other one to work for me, but this one did. I'm rather shocked by the results. I was expecting $20k at full retirement age, but this one says $20K at age 62. That's only about $260 per month lower than if I worked another ten years and retired at 62. Can that be right?! Are they using my actual pay history? Is there a way to extrapolate and find out what I would receive if I waited until 67 to collect?

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I'm sure you are nervous about the unknowns. But try to think of this as a new and possibly exciting adventure. I would also consider several states out west. Include AZ, UT, NV maybe even NM. Surely you can find an interesting place to live at a reasonable cost. Where ever you go I would rent for awhile to see if you like the area. You may have to move 2-3 times to find the right spot. Also, find a fun part time job for extra pocket change and a way to meet people.

Again....try to think of this as as exciting new adventure. Best of luck.
Thanks for the encouragement. I think that once I get over the shock and gain some confidence that I'll have financial security and health insurance, I will look at this as an opportunity to do some fun things.

Places like Nevada and even eastern Washington aren't places I'm willing to consider because I have very bad allergies in those areas. One of the reason I'd like to be in Oregon or Washington (if I can't be in western California) is that my allergist told me that those would be good places for me. Those places also happen to be most conveniently located. My sister's house is in San Diego. Most of my friends are in the Bay Area. If I can't live in California, then I'd to at least be somewhere where it's easier to visit or have visitors. Also, I was born in the midwest and grew up mostly on the East Coast and know I prefer the West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest. As I said, I don't have to live in Seattle. I can live in the outer suburbs or another city or town.

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Second, if you are single and likely to stay that way, there are a LOT of places where your stash will put you up just fine. There is far more to life than California, and some of that is not in the US. If I were single at your age, I'd buy a nice little place as home base in a low cost location (Fort Morgan would turn my crank, but I would guess that is not everyone's idea of fun) and then roam to suit my fancy.
Is it possible to get a mortgage based on my portfolio or do I need a guaranteed income from a job, pension, or Social Security? Is it difficult to even rent an apartment?

Putting aside financial issues, I have to admit that I'm a bit reluctant to buy a home. That's partly because I've never bought or owned a home and don't really know much about being a home buyer or owner. It's also partly because I don't want to make that kind of commitment to a new location.

But the part about traveling definitely appeals to me! I have taken a sabbatical before and traveled. I'm thinking that, if I haven't found a job in a year, I'll move out of my apartment and put everything in storage while I travel. First I'll travel internationally. Then I'd travel in the U.S. to check out potential places to call home.
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Old 05-20-2017, 08:31 PM   #13
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Is it possible to get a mortgage based on my portfolio or do I need a guaranteed income from a job, pension, or Social Security? Is it difficult to even rent an apartment?

Putting aside financial issues, I have to admit that I'm a bit reluctant to buy a home. That's partly because I've never bought or owned a home and don't really know much about being a home buyer or owner. It's also partly because I don't want to make that kind of commitment to a new location.

The mortgage market is pretty much run by the gubmint these days. Uncle Scam has decreed that unless you have solid W-2 or pension income, no soup for you! Landlords are a bit more pragmatic in that they really only want to know that you can pay the rent. If anyone gives you a hard time, bring them an account statement with a 6 figure balance and I am sure any reservations will melt away.

Its funny you say that you are reluctant to buy. I would be very reluctant to rent!
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Old 05-21-2017, 12:24 AM   #14
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Paying cash is always an option, alternative to mortgage. It is usually easier to get a loan if you have financial assets greater than the amount you want to borrow...I don't know if you need to have W-2 income or pension income but it may be a little more difficult...ultimately lender just wants to make sure that you can pay back the loan.
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Old 05-21-2017, 07:02 AM   #15
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Paying cash is always an option, alternative to mortgage. It is usually easier to get a loan if you have financial assets greater than the amount you want to borrow...I don't know if you need to have W-2 income or pension income but it may be a little more difficult...ultimately lender just wants to make sure that you can pay back the loan.
A former co-worker contemplating retirement next year was concerned about being able to get a mortgage following retirement. He has assets. He ended up buying the retirement home this year. He'll have a year of two mortgages.
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Old 05-21-2017, 09:44 AM   #16
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If you are single, why not continue renting in cheaper area than Bay Area. Why bother buying a house at all. When you get to 55, buy into one of those communities, they are much cheaper. If you like California, I would stay in California.
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Old 05-21-2017, 10:35 AM   #17
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...


Thanks! I couldn't get the other [pia calculator] to work for me, but this one did. I'm rather shocked by the results. I was expecting $20k at full retirement age, but this one says $20K at age 62. That's only about $260 per month lower than if I worked another ten years and retired at 62. Can that be right?! Are they using my actual pay history? Is there a way to extrapolate and find out what I would receive if I waited until 67 to collect?


...
That actually isn't unusual; you likely have 30 years m/l of good earnings already. The "topping off" doesn't make much difference.

Here is one calculator that will show you how social payouts will work depending upon age of claiming (I think; haven't used it myself): Social Security Benefits Calculator - AARP Here is an example that looks accurate, from another site:

Quote:
Colleen is 62, with an FRA of 66. If she starts taking benefits at 62, she will receive $1,200 a month. If she waits until her FRA to collect, she will receive 33% more, or $1,600 a month in Social Security. If she waits until 70, her benefits will increase another 32%, to $2,112 a month.
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/...security-at-62
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Old 05-21-2017, 01:42 PM   #18
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Does anybody have suggestions for resources that will help me figure out what my taxes will be?
Yes, just use this year's Turbotax. Taxes can change of course but that will be close enough for a guesstimate.

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Thanks! I couldn't get the other one to work for me, but this one did. I'm rather shocked by the results. I was expecting $20k at full retirement age, but this one says $20K at age 62. That's only about $260 per month lower than if I worked another ten years and retired at 62. Can that be right?! Are they using my actual pay history? Is there a way to extrapolate and find out what I would receive if I waited until 67 to collect?
Yes, it's been a while since I looked (I started SS over a year ago) but you can get estimates for every year after you turn 62 to age 70. I think it was a box for "get another estimate" or something like that. That allows you to enter a "zero" for income every year afterward so it won't assume you're continuing to work.
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Unemployment or Early Retirement?
Old 05-21-2017, 03:51 PM   #19
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Unemployment or Early Retirement?

If I was a young person in the early years of my working life or a single retired person with no personal ties to a HCOL area I would head to fly over country where there is still an affordable and quality lifestyle.

Yes, California, Portland, Seattle etc. are nice. But so are many other parts of the country where you can rent cheaply or buy a nice home for under $300,000.

At some point the HCOL areas will run out of people willing to drive long distances, and pay high rent just to make others a latte. The horror of it will be unimaginable.
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Old 05-21-2017, 07:15 PM   #20
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Its funny you say that you are reluctant to buy. I would be very reluctant to rent!
I can understand that. I feel like I'm throwing much of my rent money away. I do wish that I had bought many years ago. I'd be in a much better financial position now. And I'd know something about how to buy and maintain a house!

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A former co-worker contemplating retirement next year was concerned about being able to get a mortgage following retirement. He has assets. He ended up buying the retirement home this year. He'll have a year of two mortgages.
If I knew where I was going to end up I'd probably buy a condo now. But I don't.

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If you are single, why not continue renting in cheaper area than Bay Area. Why bother buying a house at all. When you get to 55, buy into one of those communities, they are much cheaper. If you like California, I would stay in California.
I didn't realize that the over 55 communities are cheaper. I wonder why that is. I'm considering an affordable part of California, if I can identify such a place. If I can't do that, then I'll look at some of the more affordable areas of the Pacific Northwest. I neither make nor consume lattes, but for various reasons the West Coast still makes sense for me. For others, it wouldn't make sense at all.

I don't want a lot of space or land, and I'm not looking for anything special. I'd take a basic small condo in a place I'd like over a big fancy place somewhere I don't.
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