A Bird In Hand
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- May 10, 2012
- Messages
- 137
It seems like a lot of young folks aim to RE at 45. What's that about? Why not 42, 43, or 46?
Whatever the reason, I've also chosen 45 as my target for ER. I'm almost 36, so I have 9 years to figure this stuff out. Here's my current situation:
- Married, 2 kids < 5 years old
- $237k left on 20yr, 4.25% mortgage.
- Paying extra ~ $1,100/mo to pay off in 10yrs (2020) instead of 20
- ~$500k in 401(k), IRA, and TSP; 75% stock, 15% bond, 5% fixed, 5% other
- Maxing out my 401(k), plus employer contributes ~ $12k/yr
- $165k cash in low-interest savings account
- $18k, 5 years left on 10 year loan from 401(k) for home downpayment; roughly $4000k/year in payments
My idea is to eliminate all debt (i.e., mortgage + 401(k) loan) and otherwise minimize living expenses prior to retirement at 45. I've run countless scenarios on FIRECalc. Assuming we can live 'til age 95 on $50k/yr, and assuming the worst case scenario of no SS, I still see a variety of success rates from 50% up to near 100% just by trying the 3 preset inflation assumptions. I think this suggests that my plan is on the hairy edge of feasibility, and that I can probably expect the results to be uncertain until I'm much closer to 45.
Whether or not I reach my goal of ER at 45, I'm perpetually ambivalent about what to do with my $165k cash reserves. Some options:
1) Use it to even more aggressively pay down the mortgage. Pro: mortgage goes away faster. Con: my $165k security blanket is diminished.
2) Max out Roth IRA's for me and my wife every year. The $165k was a tax-free equity windfall from the sale of our last house, and putting it into a tax-free Roth IRA...well, it seems like money that was never taxed and never would be. Pretty appealing thought. Pros: tax advantage, high likelihood of higher return than my savings account. Con: security blanket is diminished.
3) Use it to pay off $18k 401(k) loan. Pros: getting rid of debt (even when borrowed from myself) feels good; likely to get better than the 4.6% return that I'm paying myself on the loan. Con: slightly reduces that security blanket.
4) Wait until mortgage balance is $165k (approx 3 years) and pay off mortgage. Pros: no more mortgage, can start building up Roth IRA or other investments at a rate of ~ $40k a year at that point (what I'm paying annually for mortgage now); still have full security blanket for 3 years. Con: obliterates security blanket in one fell swoop.
5) Go against all my pay-off-debt-fast instincts and do one of: stop paying extra on mortgage (would give me extra ~$13k/yr); refinance mortgage to 30 years (extra ~$20k/yr); or recast at 20yrs (extra ~$15k/yr). I'd use the extra $13k-$20k to max out Roth IRAs and add the remainder to cash reserves or other investments. Pros: increase nest egg by $117,000-$180,000 (plus returns) by 45, preserve/extend cash security blanket. Con: my fantasy of paying off the mortgage early is crushed.
I don't necessarily expect to get answers to these questions...I'm more thinking out loud here. However, if anyone wants to offer an opinion about which strategy I mentioned (or others that I didn't consider) might make the most sense given my goal to retire in 9 years, I'm all ears.
Whatever the reason, I've also chosen 45 as my target for ER. I'm almost 36, so I have 9 years to figure this stuff out. Here's my current situation:
- Married, 2 kids < 5 years old
- $237k left on 20yr, 4.25% mortgage.
- Paying extra ~ $1,100/mo to pay off in 10yrs (2020) instead of 20
- ~$500k in 401(k), IRA, and TSP; 75% stock, 15% bond, 5% fixed, 5% other
- Maxing out my 401(k), plus employer contributes ~ $12k/yr
- $165k cash in low-interest savings account
- $18k, 5 years left on 10 year loan from 401(k) for home downpayment; roughly $4000k/year in payments
My idea is to eliminate all debt (i.e., mortgage + 401(k) loan) and otherwise minimize living expenses prior to retirement at 45. I've run countless scenarios on FIRECalc. Assuming we can live 'til age 95 on $50k/yr, and assuming the worst case scenario of no SS, I still see a variety of success rates from 50% up to near 100% just by trying the 3 preset inflation assumptions. I think this suggests that my plan is on the hairy edge of feasibility, and that I can probably expect the results to be uncertain until I'm much closer to 45.
Whether or not I reach my goal of ER at 45, I'm perpetually ambivalent about what to do with my $165k cash reserves. Some options:
1) Use it to even more aggressively pay down the mortgage. Pro: mortgage goes away faster. Con: my $165k security blanket is diminished.
2) Max out Roth IRA's for me and my wife every year. The $165k was a tax-free equity windfall from the sale of our last house, and putting it into a tax-free Roth IRA...well, it seems like money that was never taxed and never would be. Pretty appealing thought. Pros: tax advantage, high likelihood of higher return than my savings account. Con: security blanket is diminished.
3) Use it to pay off $18k 401(k) loan. Pros: getting rid of debt (even when borrowed from myself) feels good; likely to get better than the 4.6% return that I'm paying myself on the loan. Con: slightly reduces that security blanket.
4) Wait until mortgage balance is $165k (approx 3 years) and pay off mortgage. Pros: no more mortgage, can start building up Roth IRA or other investments at a rate of ~ $40k a year at that point (what I'm paying annually for mortgage now); still have full security blanket for 3 years. Con: obliterates security blanket in one fell swoop.
5) Go against all my pay-off-debt-fast instincts and do one of: stop paying extra on mortgage (would give me extra ~$13k/yr); refinance mortgage to 30 years (extra ~$20k/yr); or recast at 20yrs (extra ~$15k/yr). I'd use the extra $13k-$20k to max out Roth IRAs and add the remainder to cash reserves or other investments. Pros: increase nest egg by $117,000-$180,000 (plus returns) by 45, preserve/extend cash security blanket. Con: my fantasy of paying off the mortgage early is crushed.
I don't necessarily expect to get answers to these questions...I'm more thinking out loud here. However, if anyone wants to offer an opinion about which strategy I mentioned (or others that I didn't consider) might make the most sense given my goal to retire in 9 years, I'm all ears.