Kentucky Derby Analysis
The early speed will be
Danzing Candy and if he gets away with very easy fractions could be an upsetter as all the horses tend actually to not have much left for the last 1/8 of a mile. Since the field does not contain great horses it is more likely that favorite
Nyquist will be up and challenging by the ¾ pole.
Nyquist has a problem with turns , on the straight is the best horse but the 2 turns and being favorite is going to hurt. Also
Nyquist best Beyer figure is at 7 ½ furlongs and that is a big tell that distance might be trouble for Nyquist.
Exaggerator is definitely the second highest quality horse in my opinion coming into this race and his best figures were on a sloppy track but he has been right with
Nyquist all along. He is my pick to win the race. He has raced near the front of the lead entire races and closed with impressive conviction at the Santa Anita Derby won on off tracks and good tracks, I like how he looks right now.
Destin is a Todd Pletcher Horse who has good Beyer racing figures and should be right in the mix.
Outwork has had two of the best workouts at Churchill in preparation for the race indicating that he should perform better than his previous races which makes him a genuine contender.
Mor Spirit with Bob Baffert has been getting better in each of the last two races, his times are a little slow but Baffert knows how to win this race.
If there is a big speed duel the closers are
Brody’s Cause,
Creator and
My Man Sam I prefer
Creator he is inside at the start, has run a 100 speed figure and will not have to work much to get to the rail while
Brody’s Cause is sitting 19th and even closing my be hung out a couple of horses on the first turn which will affect his closing for the last ¼ mile. If you want to watch three races with many of the contenders here are three great ones to watch that can indicate how the race might go:
Predicted Winner: Exaggerator
Place: Creator
Show: Nyquist
4th: Destin
5th: Outwork
6th: My Man Sam
Suggested Bets
Win: $100 Win Exaggerator
$200 Place Exaggerator.
$10 Exacta: 4 horse box (costs $120) Exaggerator Creator Outwork Destin
$20 Exacta Key Cost $100 each way total $200 – Exaggerator with Creator - Nyquist, -Destin -Outwork –MyManSam. Then reverse with Exaggerator as finishing 2nd instead of the other 5
Trifecta – 6 horse box (cost $120) my top six picks
Superfecta 6 horse box (cost $460) my top six picks
Total Risk: $1,200
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