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2016 Kentucky Derby Predictions
Old 05-07-2016, 12:56 PM   #1
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2016 Kentucky Derby Predictions

Kentucky Derby Analysis

The early speed will be Danzing Candy and if he gets away with very easy fractions could be an upsetter as all the horses tend actually to not have much left for the last 1/8 of a mile. Since the field does not contain great horses it is more likely that favorite Nyquist will be up and challenging by the ¾ pole. Nyquist has a problem with turns , on the straight is the best horse but the 2 turns and being favorite is going to hurt. Also Nyquist best Beyer figure is at 7 ½ furlongs and that is a big tell that distance might be trouble for Nyquist.

Exaggerator is definitely the second highest quality horse in my opinion coming into this race and his best figures were on a sloppy track but he has been right with Nyquist all along. He is my pick to win the race. He has raced near the front of the lead entire races and closed with impressive conviction at the Santa Anita Derby won on off tracks and good tracks, I like how he looks right now.

Destin is a Todd Pletcher Horse who has good Beyer racing figures and should be right in the mix. Outwork has had two of the best workouts at Churchill in preparation for the race indicating that he should perform better than his previous races which makes him a genuine contender. Mor Spirit with Bob Baffert has been getting better in each of the last two races, his times are a little slow but Baffert knows how to win this race.

If there is a big speed duel the closers are Brody’s Cause, Creator and My Man Sam I prefer Creator he is inside at the start, has run a 100 speed figure and will not have to work much to get to the rail while Brody’s Cause is sitting 19th and even closing my be hung out a couple of horses on the first turn which will affect his closing for the last ¼ mile. If you want to watch three races with many of the contenders here are three great ones to watch that can indicate how the race might go:







Predicted Winner: Exaggerator
Place: Creator
Show: Nyquist
4th: Destin
5th: Outwork
6th: My Man Sam

Suggested Bets

Win: $100 Win Exaggerator
$200 Place Exaggerator.

$10 Exacta: 4 horse box (costs $120) Exaggerator Creator Outwork Destin

$20 Exacta Key Cost $100 each way total $200 – Exaggerator with Creator - Nyquist, -Destin -Outwork –MyManSam. Then reverse with Exaggerator as finishing 2nd instead of the other 5

Trifecta – 6 horse box (cost $120) my top six picks

Superfecta 6 horse box (cost $460) my top six picks

Total Risk: $1,200
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Old 05-07-2016, 02:04 PM   #2
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While it would be nice to see another triple crown winner, after last year, I suspect we will be disappointed for many more years to come.
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Old 05-07-2016, 02:08 PM   #3
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Thanks for the reminder, Running_Man.

I predict it will be a most enjoyable race. Right now, I'm off to the store for some bourbon, powdered sugar and mint leaves...
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Old 05-07-2016, 03:11 PM   #4
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Mor Spirit to win.

I don't know anything about horse racing, so on the rare occasions I find myself at a track I simply bet on whichever horse has what I think is the best trainer.

Edit: See, I told ya!
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Old 05-07-2016, 06:19 PM   #5
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Impressive performances by both Nyquist and Exaggerator.
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Old 05-07-2016, 06:22 PM   #6
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In a smaller field Exaggerator might have worked his way up easier and caught him.
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Old 05-08-2016, 09:23 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RunningBum View Post
In a smaller field Exaggerator might have worked his way up easier and caught him.
or on a longer track.
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Old 05-08-2016, 09:32 AM   #8
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I knew a horse would win...
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Old 05-08-2016, 10:34 AM   #9
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That was a nice finish. Exaggerator was flying towards the end only to come up short.
Nyquist is a beautiful horse.
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