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Old 12-29-2012, 03:19 PM   #21
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Even Elvis' "Blue Christmas" is over 30 years. Weird.
Closer to 55 years, Methinks.
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Old 12-29-2012, 03:20 PM   #22
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Actually IMHO the way books are distributed will change, custom printing service will exist at least at amazon and some larger bookstores. You will order a paper copy of the book and it will be produced for you on demand. There will be no inventory of books, thus the physical bookstore may vanish, and perhaps your local print shop will provide the service. So paper books will be an option, printed on demand with no inventory costs or return costs for unsold copies. Once the book is in pdf form its no problem to print it out and binding machines do exist.
May all be true. I've also read articles suggesting physical books will become a niche market, and I agree they won't ever become entirely extinct. But not all books will be available in printed form and the cost/book will be far more expensive than the current/past model...new $20-30 books will become extinct.
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Old 12-29-2012, 04:12 PM   #23
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I wonder what the impact of the 3D printer will be? It's only used by early adopters at present, but I can envisage a future in about 5 years where you need a part for your vehicle, law mower or whatever, and you find it online and order it to be printed at your local hardware store. Just imagine the impact on manufacturing. And on the Chinese economy.....
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Old 12-29-2012, 04:17 PM   #24
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Closer to 55 years, Methinks.

EXACTLY my point I mean, Gene Autry? Burl Ives?? Sometimes you hear a "new" one - like The Carpenters (40+years""""""""") "Merry Christmas Darling"

It is really an amazing thing. The longivity of that play list.
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Old 12-29-2012, 04:20 PM   #25
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Also in decline: bookshelves, CD storage racks, pulp and paper mills, business travel. In the ascendant: trucking companies, bringing all the stuff ordered online, cloud security, self publishing.

C'est la vie!
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Old 12-29-2012, 04:20 PM   #26
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6. MUSIC - This is one of the saddest parts of the change story. The music industry is dying a slow death. Not just because of illegal downloading. It's the lack of innovative new music being given a chance to get to the people who would like to hear it. Greed and corruption is the problem. The record labels and the radio conglomerates are simply self-destructing.

Over 40% of the music purchased today is "catalogue items," meaning traditional music that the public is familiar with. Older established artists. This is also true on the live concert circuit. To explore this fascinating and disturbing topic further, check out the book, "Appetite for Self-Destruction" by Steve Knopper, and the video documentary, "Before the Music Dies."
Interesting--I will reserve judgement until I read that book, but my gut instinct is that MORE music and more innovative music is out there now because of the internet. It seems that You-tube allows more musicians to upload their own music, bypassing the labels. I know I have discovered many new artists through You-tube. It would be interesting to see what Mr. Knopper has to say about that.

As for the rest--I believe it. Just #6 I am not so sure about.
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Old 12-29-2012, 04:25 PM   #27
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Hakuna - I see you are a fan... We have a group of Olde Fartusses (and Fartettes) who will do a screening of Blazing for New Year's Eve.
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Old 12-29-2012, 04:41 PM   #28
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I expect "top 10" lists to go extinct in favor of "top 9" or even "top 8" lists as our attention spans

(Sorry, was interrupted by a text.)

Music death? I don't think so. The industry may completely change, but there are plenty of ways already to experience new music. Psy's "Gangnam Style" is a widely-known example of a localized South Korean alternative music scene creating a song that went viral worldwide via YouTube (now over 1 billion views). Justin Bieber was discovered via YouTube videos. But those are just the high-visibility examples. MySpace had an indie music component for a while. Maybe still does...heck I don' t even know if that site exists anymore. A lot of music-related sites like Pandora or Amazon MP3 will play or suggest lesser-known music similar to your perceived tastes. The music industry will change a lot, but even if everyone decides to stop paying for music there are people out there who will keep making it.

On the other hand, while that's happening the commercial music industry may just devolve into reselling old recordings and recording covers of old songs. There may be enough music out there that each generation of music consumers can hear old remade songs and think they're new until their parents tell them otherwise and lament how the one they heard as a youth was better. Rinse and repeat.

By the way, I think #9 was "buggy whips".

Edit: I'm moving the link for Psy's "Gangnam Style" down here because the board insists on inserting the video which kind of interrupted my paragraph above:

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Old 12-29-2012, 04:47 PM   #29
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Here is # 9:

9. Privacy. If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That’s gone. It’s been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7, “They” know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. And “They” will try to get you to buy something else. Again and again.
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Old 12-29-2012, 05:58 PM   #30
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I disagree about the Post Office. Maybe it SHOULD be gone, but then so should Amtrack. Actually, the PO does a reasonably good job for the most part. Their business model is their only problem. Privatized, they could probably hold their own (assuming the baggage from the gummint days was not attached to the deal).

Go into a USPS office and you will often (usually, locally) see a veritable hive of activity (especially around the holidays). So, "gone" - not likely. Not while "US" is still in "USPS", anyway. Of course, you're free to disagree as YMMV.
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Old 12-29-2012, 06:47 PM   #31
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Old 12-29-2012, 08:18 PM   #32
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I'll be happy to give all of that up as long as I get my personal jetpack and my Jetsons flying hovercar.

Yeah, yeah, I know, "any day now". I've been hearing that for most of my life.
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Old 12-30-2012, 04:45 AM   #33
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Here is # 9:

9. Privacy.If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. Thatís gone. Itís been gone for a long time anyway.
Privacy is one of the interstitial characterizations along the spectrum from isolation to the literal meaning of publicity. As such, I don't think it is something necessarily "disappears" but rather I believe our society travels back and forth along certain paths, and this is one of them. The balance point shifts as society's needs shift. Both extremes are almost surely bad, but there isn't a fixed "midpoint" that is ideal for all time.

I don't see the current movement away from isolation and toward publicity to necessarily be a bad thing. There are myriad incidents and trends in society that concern me, which I believe are artifacts of people trying and succeeding in remaining more insular from each other. Some of the negative aspects of privacy have, I believe, fed an unhealthy loss of social conscience, an unhealthy emphasis on the self, a desensitization with regard to the challenges others face. The loss of privacy you allude to may help reverse some of that, if we can get past the friction that is a natural reflection of moving toward more interaction and integration within community. That's not to say that every aspect of the change will be positive, but I believe the positive effects are of fundamental importance.
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Old 12-30-2012, 04:58 AM   #34
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I disagree about the Post Office. Maybe it SHOULD be gone, but then so should Amtrack. Actually, the PO does a reasonably good job for the most part. Their business model is their only problem. Privatized, they could probably hold their own (assuming the baggage from the gummint days was not attached to the deal).
The problem with that idea is that there really is no business case to be made for residential postal delivery. Without the "baggage" of the requirement to deliver mail to residences, any self-respecting business manager would put a five year plan in place to end that service, the day that they take over the Post Office as a private concern. I'm not saying whether or not residential postal delivery is worthy enough of a service to warrant government subsidization, but just explaining why privatization is a non-starter - no rational set of investors is going to accept such an obligation placed on their purchase.

So a conversion of the Post Office probably will have to come along with some government "baggage" at least - if not the requirement to subsidize residential postal delivery (which would nullify all the positive aspects of privatization that you were implicitly touting), then there would be a need to have government force everyone trying to engage in commerce in the United States to shift to the new model, i.e., requiring entities putting out legal notices to either switch to the exceedingly expensive parcel service delivery services (effectively multiplying their disclosure costs by a factor of 30x) or putting in place, certifying, auditing for compliance and then requiring use of a more reliable email delivery mechanism, ensuring also to provide sufficient assurance that all Americans have ready access to it.

Sounds like more trouble than it is worth to me.

Amtrak is another story. The problem is that we actually do need Amtrak - actually we need a much more comprehensive network of high-speed inter-city mass-transit. We need it for the long-term economic health of our nation. I don't know how, without government being involved, to ensure we remain competitive in that arena, but I think it has something to do with how much the government currently interferes in the best interest of Amtrak's "competitors", i.e., giving airlines and automobile travel a soft touch. Strip away government subsidization of all aspects of airline and automobile travel, and maybe people will be driven back to using the rails. I'm not sure.
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Old 12-30-2012, 05:38 AM   #35
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If you went back to the year 1750 and told someone that "..in 2013 almost nobody would own a horse...", they'd assume that the standard of living had gone down.

Things come and go...they get replaced by other things.
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Old 12-30-2012, 07:41 AM   #36
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Courtesy.

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Old 12-30-2012, 08:05 AM   #37
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The need for newspapers sounds like the need for the plastic grocery bags (as any dog owner can relate )
Oh don't get me going on plastic grocery bags! VERY useful for all types of things especially for picking and keeping things separate in the garden and the fridge and I reuse them as much as possible. When I see attempts to ban them I want to brain the person. Also the post office, I have a PO box if the PO goes away how do I get my mail? I assume it'll be privatized but I don't want it delivered to my house so a box would need to be an option. I realize change is inevitable and often is for the better but it's easy to like the status quo.

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Bulk newsprint (no ink!) is available from Amazon.com for $14 per 100 sheets.
That's a surprise. I get 6 months of newspapers for $115 and doing 5 seconds of math it seems to be far less than buying blank newsprint.

You're going to have drag me kicking and screaming into the future I tell ya!
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Old 12-30-2012, 09:21 AM   #38
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I disagree with 6 and 7. The music industry won't die, but it will be forced to evolve into something different. Hopefully, artists will have more control and profit from their works, rather than handing those over to the industry.

The role of TV is changing, but I don't see it disappearing entirely. It, too, will need to evolve.
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futures discussion
Old 12-30-2012, 09:39 AM   #39
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futures discussion

This is a fun discussion, and as a techie who has used email and the internet (previously ARPANET) for 30+ years, I enjoy trying to look into the future. I have long ago made the transition for all 9 things (except I still mail packages at the post office, but that could be replaced by fedex). Here's where I see some things heading:
1- video glasses. We'll be able to watch anything, anytime, anywhere. It's potentially much cheaper and consumes much less power than regular displays. It's already underway (tinyurl.com/a5lhm6c)
2- we'll use the same glasses to record everything our eyes see, all the time, and because memory costs and density will continue to improve, we'll carry it with us (or it will all go to the cloud.) (tinyurl.com/awtxtt2)
3- we'll no longer drive our cars most of the time- Google is demonstrating it. This will help as we are older, or drink too much. Or you can text or watch movies while you commute. It might even prove to be safer overall (tinyurl.com/dyasxc3).
4- Large portions of college courses will move to internet-based. This will be driven by skyrocketing college costs. It's not there yet, but there's enough potential gain to drive this.
Of course, I may be wrong, but these are some of my guesses.
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Old 12-30-2012, 09:59 AM   #40
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Newspaper the distribution format can go. But it will be sad if an independent press can't be sustained. Newspapers are hurting because they also lost all the classified ads revenues to monster.com, craigslist and eBay.

Postal service is also being scorned because Fed Ex is so slick. But a lot of people can't afford to pay $10 to send a simple letter.
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