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9 things that will disappear in our lifetime
Old 12-29-2012, 11:34 AM   #1
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9 things that will disappear in our lifetime

9 THINGS THAT WILL DISAPPEAR IN OUR LIFETIME:

Whether these changes are good or bad depends in part on how we adapt to them.
These observations are not intended to be grim, or pessimistic . . . they are simply reality. But, ready or not . . . here they come.

1. THE POST OFFICE - Get ready to imagine a world without the post office. They are so deeply in financial trouble that there is probably no way to sustain it long term. Email, Fed Ex, and UPS have just about wiped out the minimum revenue needed to keep the post office alive. Most of your mail every day is junk mail and bills.

2. THE CHECK - Britain is already laying the groundwork to do away with cheque (check) by 2018. It costs the financial system billions of dollars a year to process cheques (checks). Plastic cards and on-line transactions will lead to the eventual demise of the check. This plays right into the death of the post office. If you never paid your bills by mail and never received them by mail, the post office would absolutely go out of business.

3. THE NEWSPAPER - The younger generation simply doesn't read the newspaper. They certainly don't subscribe to a daily delivered print edition. That may go the way of the milkman and the laundry man. As for reading the paper on-line, get ready to pay for it. The rise in mobile Internet devices and e-readers has caused all the newspaper and magazine publishers to form an alliance. They have met with Apple, Amazon, and the major cell phone companies to develop a model for paid subscription services.

4. THE BOOK - You say you will never give up the physical book that you hold in your hand and turn the literal pages. I said the same thing about downloading music from iTunes. I wanted my hard copy CD. But I quickly changed my mind when I discovered that I could get albums for half the price without ever leaving home to get the latest music.

The same thing will happen with books. You can browse a bookstore on-line and even read a preview chapter before you buy. And the price is less than half that of a real book. And think of the convenience! Once you start flicking your fingers on the screen instead of the book, you find that you are lost in the story, can't wait to see what happens next, and you forget that you're holding a gadget instead of a book.

5. THE LAND LINE TELEPHONE - Unless you have a large family and make a lot of local calls, you don't need it anymore. Most people keep it simply because they've always had it. But you are paying double charges for that extra service. All the cell phone companies will let you call customers using the same cell provider for no charge against your minutes

6. MUSIC - This is one of the saddest parts of the change story. The music industry is dying a slow death. Not just because of illegal downloading. It's the lack of innovative new music being given a chance to get to the people who would like to hear it. Greed and corruption is the problem. The record labels and the radio conglomerates are simply self-destructing.

Over 40% of the music purchased today is "catalogue items," meaning traditional music that the public is familiar with. Older established artists. This is also true on the live concert circuit. To explore this fascinating and disturbing topic further, check out the book, "Appetite for Self-Destruction" by Steve Knopper, and the video documentary, "Before the Music Dies."

7. TELEVISION - Revenues to the networks are down dramatically. Not just because of the economy. People are watching TV and movies streamed from their computers. And they're playing games and doing lots of other things that take up the time that used to be spent watching TV. Prime time shows have degenerated down to lower than the lowest common denominator.

Cable rates are skyrocketing and commercials run about every 4 minutes and 30 seconds. I say good riddance to most of it. It's time for the cable companies to be put out of our misery. Let the people choose what they want to watch on-line and through Netflix.

8. THE "THINGS" THAT YOU OWN - Many of the very possessions that we used to own are still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the future. They may simply reside in "the cloud." Today your computer has a hard drive and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents. Your software is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be.

But all of that is changing.. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their latest "CLOUD SERVICES." That means that when you turn on a computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system. So, Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet CLOUD.

If you save something, it will be saved to the CLOUD. And you may pay a monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider. In this virtual world, you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any laptop or handheld device. That's the good news.

But, will you actually own any of this "stuff" or will it all be able to disappear at any moment in a big "Poof?" Will most of the things in our lives be disposable and whimsical? It makes you want to run to the closet and pull out that photo album, grab a book from the shelf, or open up a CD case and pull out the insert.
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Old 12-29-2012, 11:43 AM   #2
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Most of it is good news IMO, but I've had those anti-change "debates" here before (no thanks), so YMMV. There will always be a market for products & services people really want AND are willing to pay for (too often overlooked in debate).

Gave up on newspapers, CDs and landlines years ago, and expect to do without the post office, physical books and checks one day - none of those changes bother me. I don't believe digital music will die off. And I look forward to seeing TV completely reinvented, it's a bundling racket at present.

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Old 12-29-2012, 12:32 PM   #3
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#1 - #5 make sense, and "good riddance".

#6 is true, but the rationale presented is nonsense. When I was growing up, the record labels owned artists and only those artists who got the nod from the powers that be got any exposure. Now, while no one is making money on it, it is incredibly easy to make music and get it distributed.

#7 is sheer nonsense. Yes, the revenue model will change - is changing. But people are watching more television today than they did when I was growing up.

Cable rates are skyrocketing - yes - and it doesn't make sense to think that that means people are less interested.

I know where the misunderstanding about television's future stems from though. Last year was the first year in the last twenty when television viewership went down. By the logic presented in #7, the 2008 stock market crash would have foretold a steady decline of the Dow Industrials index back down to 100. Instead, we've recovered the vast majority of what was lost in 2008, and no serious predictions are being made that the Dow is heading for 100.

#8 is also a little off. While I'm very happy that my most important data is backed-up into the cloud, that'll never mean that people will stop owning their own data. There is no doubt in my mind that there will always be a way to store your own data and retain ownership of it. You may have to pay a fee to retain ownership, but today you have to pay for a hard drive to put your data on.

The nature of buying other people's data may change, and that's also a good thing for IP owners. The lack of control that creators have had up to now has practically forced them to sacrifice what is there for less than it is worth, just to fit within a sales model that is stacked against the creator vis a vis the exploiter, abuser, pirate and thief. I'm a law-abiding person who lives up to the commitments I make - I have nothing to fear from a marketplace where I'm sold something according to specific terms and conditions and therefore have to use it according to those specific terms and conditions.
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Old 12-29-2012, 12:37 PM   #4
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What is the 9th thing?
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Old 12-29-2012, 12:39 PM   #5
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I guess that one is already gone.
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Old 12-29-2012, 12:48 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silver View Post
What is the 9th thing?
As often as we've been told "the first thing to go is your memory" I'm not surprised you don't remember.
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:02 PM   #7
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It appears that the number "9" will also disappear - it already has from the list.
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:02 PM   #8
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Cable rates are skyrocketing and commercials run about every 4 minutes and 30 seconds. I say good riddance to most of it. It's time for the cable companies to be put out of our misery. Let the people choose what they want to watch on-line and through Netflix.

I'm beginning to think more like this. The only thing keeping me from it is the damn Golf Channel. I watch a lot of that. If it wasn't for that, I could live with the free network channels, Netflix and internet entertainment.
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:07 PM   #9
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#3 newspapers. I demand you to retract that! It will be a sad day when the last newspaper is thrown on my driveway, but probably
inevitable.
#6 music- the old artists have a big advantage in this area, as concert income is outstripping "album" income. Remember in the day when the tours were used to promote the album? The baby boomer generation bands are raking in the concert profits, even though they may not have had a charted album in decades. Boomers are definitely willing to spend their disposable income on these bands. Some of my favorite bands that I attend look like an event at Geezerville, with only an occasional 20 something youngster in sight. And heaven forbid you stand up and cheer during the song as everyone will yell at you to sit down! BTW- I am one of those "yellers" too.
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:09 PM   #10
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I've abandoned the newspaper. But all the other things mentioned I still use and like. Guess that makes me old fashioned
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:23 PM   #11
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#1 Probably not completely, but probably in its present form.

#2 We use VERY few paper checks. AND with technology, there is really no reason. Wife writes one to her sis (they share a product that her sis buys, and DW reimburses sis for 1/2. COULD be done via on line bill pay. The other that we regularly use checks for is church. And if they COULD move into the 21st century and allow on line donations.

#3 & #4 ditto to #1 Probably will survive in some form.

#5 ALREADY a big issue with younger folks who have apartments. I first ran into this 10-15 years ago. As an accountant for an attorney, I had the need to contact one of her "employees", and the young woman ONLY had a cell phone. SHOCKING then, common now. My two sons only have cell. AND some dear friends (in their 70's) dropped THEIR landline too - so it is moving into all ages.

#6 & #7 - dunno. Look at the change from "our" collective youth. WHO KNOWS what the next 10-15 years will bring. I **DID** notice something this Christmas season... do you realize that virtually ALL of the music is 30+ years old? Much of it MORE (Bing Crosby White Christmas = 1940's!!) The music AND the artist. Even Elvis' "Blue Christmas" is over 30 years. Weird.
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:25 PM   #12
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I want a newspaper aside from reading it every day I use it in various and sundry ways. Newspapers are good for many different things and I'd be darned po'ed if I couldn't get my newspaper.

How did people start fires w/o newspaper? I use kindling but the newspaper starts the kindling. I don't have the desire to make toothpick sized kindling! I heat my house with wood this is no small matter for me.

I wash windows (car, house, woodstove) with newspapers - they leave no lint and do a great job.

I sort and clean vegetables I grow and process on newspapers. It catches the dirt and bugs so all I have to do is fold it up and toss it. My counters would be a mess w/o newspapers.

I put newspapers under the car and all my small yard equipment when I do oil changes to keep oil from dripping on the surface (garage, paved and unpaved driveway).

I probably use newspapers for more things but off the top of my head these are important uses especially #1 and 2.
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:27 PM   #13
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The need for newspapers sounds like the need for the plastic grocery bags (as any dog owner can relate )
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:27 PM   #14
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I did notice on my new Kindle Fire that I can order my hometown daily paper for 50 cents. So, now, when we are travelling I can still get news from home!!
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:39 PM   #15
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Bulk newsprint (no ink!) is available from Amazon.com for $14 per 100 sheets.
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:54 PM   #16
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Also in decline: bookshelves, CD storage racks, pulp and paper mills, business travel. In the ascendant: trucking companies, bringing all the stuff ordered online, cloud security, self publishing.

C'est la vie!
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:56 PM   #17
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We saw some of this in an interesting way at the church fair last month. We had much fewer donations of books to sell. We speculated that the reason was that folks have stopped buying so many books, switching to e-books, so few books purchased results in fewer books donated to sell at the church fair.
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Old 12-29-2012, 02:01 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by veremchuka View Post
I want a newspaper aside from reading it every day I use it in various and sundry ways. Newspapers are good for many different things and I'd be darned po'ed if I couldn't get my newspaper.
Content (or lack thereof) aside, newspapers are a huge waste of resources - trees, ink & energy to print/distribute, etc. Newspapers can't die off fast enough for us, the content can all go online. But I realize that's not on everyone's radar...

Despite every attempt to get off mailing lists, we get enough junk mail to serve all our misc scrap paper needs.
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Old 12-29-2012, 02:05 PM   #19
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Books and newspapers are listed but not magazines? Or are they already gone? Maybe that's number 9!

I disagree with 6 an 7 except in the narrow sense. I have a very large and growing collection of MP3 songs now that I can sample them and get suggestions from the likes of Pandora. Mostly from artists I've never heard of, even though much of it has been around for a decade. Different distribution model now, but the music itself will continue.

I wouldn't be surprised to see broadcast TV disappear, but it will just move to internet distribution. However it could take a long time, until we all get fiber to home. I'm already having problems with my 250GB monthly cable internet data ceiling since I transferred my online backup to a different provider and had it hiccup this month and decide to duplicate everything.
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Old 12-29-2012, 02:09 PM   #20
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Actually IMHO the way books are distributed will change, custom printing service will exist at least at amazon and some larger bookstores. You will order a paper copy of the book and it will be produced for you on demand. There will be no inventory of books, thus the physical bookstore may vanish, and perhaps your local print shop will provide the service. So paper books will be an option, printed on demand with no inventory costs or return costs for unsold copies. Once the book is in pdf form its no problem to print it out and binding machines do exist.
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