Well, that's my point. The deficit was bad in 1992 also, was projected to get worse, and had been growing for several years. And I can recall hearing (repeatedly) in the early 90s that those who missed out on the market gains in the 80s were out of luck; that it would be all downhill from there. And that was conventional wisdom at the time, as I recall. If I had paid attention to what many viewed to be steam and ash then, I'd still be working. On the other hand, there are some very cogent arguments on the other side. I just don't think it's possible to know, so I sit on the fence with a relatively low stock allocation despite my strong bias toward optimism. What does make very good sense to me is this:It's getting hard to miss. Here's some now:
http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20030605.html