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Old 11-05-2010, 09:17 AM   #41
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I retired Jan 2007 and I'm still a little down from my all time high but the good news is my weight is hitting a fifteen year low !
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Old 11-05-2010, 09:21 AM   #42
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The S&P is still down some 20% of its previous high (2000).

What does that tell you ...

FWIW, my opinion is that there is much money on the sidelines (along with itchy fingers, on the personal investors side) to keep this rally going a bit longer.

Also, you have the normal EOY gains that happen (along with distributions, which some reinvest in other "opportunites" as I do.)

Just my opinion; not worth $.02 ...

BTW, I will be "restocking" my retirement cash buckets over the next few weeks (yes, I'm happily retired). That will take care of my "imbalance" in equity funds and return me to my "old man" 50/50 split (equity/bond-cash)....
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Old 11-05-2010, 09:26 AM   #43
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How do people know what their all time high was - and how often do folks update their portfolio value? I only know my past YE numbers.

Our portfolio + cash is now marginally above YE 07 after three years of hefty withdrawals. Since we're had deflation since then, I guess that makes us even better off. Sure doesn't feel like it.

More importantly, looking forward I can't say that our portfolio has better odds of sustaining us. Animal spirits as indeed alive again - so it's best to make sure one is not eaten by a predator.
Every week day I enter share prices for my 7 mutual funds into Excel, and I also update my TSP balance and bank account balance. This is my idea of fun. Excel then computes my porfolio value. Early in each month I record the value of my taxable investments, Roth, TSP, bank accounts, and total portfolio. Plus, I just plain remember what my highest portfolio value has ever been because it interests me.

I have read that it is better to retire into a thriving, growing market than into a declining market or crash. So in that sense, I think my portfolio is in better shape than I thought. On the other hand, I know that the market goes down and up. That attribute of the market is what kept me from selling in 2008-2009, and it also means that I will just hang on and watch (gleefully, this time) in 2010. Of course it will eventually go down, but meanwhile I am getting a lot of fun out of watching these high numbers, just as I get a lot of fun out of watching a pretty sunset.

The only change I am thinking of in my investment or withdrawal plans, is that I may possibly move from the "SWR to be increased by the CPI each year" to the "SWR of my balance each year" withdrawal scheme. Since I have only been retired a year, I could go either way. Basing my withdrawal on my balance seems a lot easier and I have learned that I tend not to spend it all anyway if my SWR is more than my dividends (especially in a down market).
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Old 11-05-2010, 10:20 AM   #44
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congrats 73SS...now go out and celebrate by opening up the 4-bbl on that 454 and burn some rubber! I ran the numbers and as of October 26 2010, I'd say I'm finally officially "back"...that number being my October 2007 high, plus everything additional I've invested since then.

And, not to jinx it, but yesterday was another all-time high, plus breaking a new milestone, the $600K barrier.
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Old 11-05-2010, 10:30 AM   #45
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Rebalance, rebalance, rebalance...........
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Old 11-05-2010, 10:49 AM   #46
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How do people know what their all time high was - and how often do folks update their portfolio value?
Unless I am in the boondocks where there is no Internet access, at least once a day after market close, plus a couple of hours to allow MFs to report their NAVs.

When I am home, several times a day, to know how my stocks are doing, by using MS Money and now Quicken.

Of my 76% AA in equities, 1/3 of that is in MF while 2/3 is in individual stocks. As often said before, I like to fancy being my own MF manager, so hold many stocks. The stocks I hold, about 1/2 are high-beta stocks, and need lots of watching. Even while the market is going up, there's always a chance of one or two blowing up due to individual risks.

If a retired guy does not spend time to watch his stocks, what else does he watch? Oprah?
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Old 11-05-2010, 12:09 PM   #47
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Rebalance, rebalance, rebalance...........
+1 +1 +1
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I have read that it is better to retire into a thriving, growing market than into a declining market or crash. So in that sense, I think my portfolio is in better shape than I thought. On the other hand, I know that the market goes down and up. That attribute of the market is what kept me from selling in 2008-2009, and it also means that I will just hang on and watch (gleefully, this time) in 2010. Of course it will eventually go down, but meanwhile I am getting a lot of fun out of watching these high numbers, just as I get a lot of fun out of watching a pretty sunset.
Im thinking its better to retire right after a crash, when equity values are at a low point and have greater upside than down. Me I retired a couple of months before the 00 crash, but then again, my timing has always been like that. Its amazing how we adapt and persevere.

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If a retired guy does not spend time to watch his stocks, what else does he watch? Oprah?
Im getting in lots of time with family before we head back south for the winter. Much like Audrey has posted elsewhere, I find I am much better off when I tune out the media, although I prefer Mexican football over telenovelas
Gotta stay focused on the important stuff - life is just too short. Ya'll have a nice day.
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Old 11-05-2010, 01:04 PM   #48
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How do people know what their all time high was - and how often do folks update their portfolio value? I only know my past YE numbers.
I have a spreadsheet that I update once a quarter.
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Old 11-05-2010, 01:17 PM   #49
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Old 11-05-2010, 01:36 PM   #50
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Up 69% from my pre-crash quarterly high (from June 30, 2008).
Up 130% from my crash quarterly low (March 31, 2009).

I track portfolio totals on a quarterly basis.

Still working and accumulating assets.

I rebalanced by selling something and buying something else for the first time ever a couple weeks ago. Sold a slug of emerging markets index fund and bought some pacific index fund. Previous rebalancing has been accomplished by changing where I direct new investment contributions.
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Old 11-05-2010, 06:17 PM   #51
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I retired Jan 2007 and I'm still a little down from my all time high but the good news is my weight is hitting a fifteen year low !
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Old 11-05-2010, 08:59 PM   #52
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I saw the title of this thread & thought it was related to the California marijuana issue (All Time High) lol

However, although our portfolio's still a little off from where I wish it was, in reality it is at it's all-time high. We're by no means the Rockefellers, but there shouldn't be any dog food in our future!
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Old 11-05-2010, 09:10 PM   #53
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I have read that it is better to retire into a thriving, growing market than into a declining market or crash. So in that sense, I think my portfolio is in better shape than I thought. On the other hand, I know that the market goes down and up. That attribute of the market is what kept me from selling in 2008-2009, and it also means that I will just hang on and watch (gleefully, this time) in 2010. Of course it will eventually go down, but meanwhile I am getting a lot of fun out of watching these high numbers, just as I get a lot of fun out of watching a pretty sunset
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Im thinking its better to retire right after a crash, when equity values are at a low point and have greater upside than down. Me I retired a couple of months before the 00 crash, but then again, my timing has always been like that. Its amazing how we adapt and persevere.
It's interesting. I retired in 2006, which was near the end of a big jump up. But I feel like I retired into a big crash (for obvious reasons), even though I personally didn't lose much during it. I wonder what the theory is for retiring into a good market that immediately crashes followed by a huge run-up? I mean, what defines what you've retired into? The actions of the immediate future after FIRE? Or do you have to wait 10 years or so and look back to get a decent perspective on what things were like?
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Old 11-05-2010, 09:52 PM   #54
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It's interesting. I retired in 2006, which was near the end of a big jump up. But I feel like I retired into a big crash (for obvious reasons), even though I personally didn't lose much during it. I wonder what the theory is for retiring into a good market that immediately crashes followed by a huge run-up? I mean, what defines what you've retired into? The actions of the immediate future after FIRE? Or do you have to wait 10 years or so and look back to get a decent perspective on what things were like?
I am not sure, but I think the implication is that if you don't have to sell low to fund your living expenses, you are doing fine. Still, I'm not really sure why that would make more difference at the beginning of retirement, than later on.
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Old 11-05-2010, 10:37 PM   #55
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Being at an all-time high--and per FIRECACL "looking good"--why shouldn't I transfer everything I now have into cash equivalents?
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Old 11-05-2010, 11:13 PM   #56
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Does Firecalc say you are good with all cash? If so, do what you gotta do.
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Old 11-06-2010, 08:55 AM   #57
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I wonder what the theory is for retiring into a good market that immediately crashes followed by a huge run-up?

If you retire at a peak like I did and do the 4% plus inflation you are in danger of hurting your chances of survival by continuing that number even when your portfolio has dropped say from 1 mil to 750,000. You have a better chance of survival by just doing the 4% of portfolio . This is explained in "The Bogleheads Guide to Retirement Planning " which I highly recommend .
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Old 11-06-2010, 09:41 AM   #58
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Was it ESRBOB who introduced the 95% rule? You can run it in firecalc and it should help get you through the down times.
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Old 11-06-2010, 09:57 AM   #59
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Was it ESRBOB who introduced the 95% rule? You can run it in firecalc and it should help get you through the down times.
Another method that some of us use to get through down times is to maintain several years' expenses in cash, perhaps 5-10%. If you live on cash and/or cash dividends during a crash, then you don't have to sell anything to fund 100% of your living expenses. Your non-cash investments will remain untouched. Then when the market is doing better, you can sell and replenish your cash percentage.

It seems to me that the trick is surviving through a crash until your portfolio has completely recovered. That's a whole lot easier for those who are able to just live on dividends.
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Old 11-06-2010, 12:14 PM   #60
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Was it ESRBOB who introduced the 95% rule? You can run it in firecalc and it should help get you through the down times.

I got through the down times by adjusting my 4% to reality .That combined with a pension & a survivor ss helped me maintain sanity . I had several years in my Money Market so I was fine but even if you have the several years set aside but do not lower your initial amount of yearly withdrawal you will damage your portfolio . So I Guess the rule is don't party like it's 2007 in 2009 !
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