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Any examples of Tariff's beginning to hit home?
Old 05-13-2019, 02:33 PM   #1
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Any examples of Tariff's beginning to hit home?

Besides hammering the stock market, has anyone seen first hand the effects of tariffs? Ive read a list of products that might be affected but have not seen how this effects the cost. Anyone with examples?
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Old 05-13-2019, 02:37 PM   #2
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It's going to be a ripple effect. Be careful what you wish for....
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Old 05-13-2019, 02:40 PM   #3
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The only immediate effect I see is that there are bargains in the market.

I'm not sure, but I think it could take a few weeks before we'd see it at the retail level. By then, IMO, it will be resolved.

IIRC, the tariffs are going from 10% to 25% on some items...so it's not a 25% increase, more like 15%.
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Old 05-13-2019, 03:54 PM   #4
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Old 05-13-2019, 04:18 PM   #5
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NBC news reported it will cost the average family about $750 a year in added costs. I think the stock market is way over reacting and it's going to provide some good bargains. The Chinese just can't afford to let their inventory pile up and it will if they don't capitulate soon. They have tariffs on US goods for many years and we had none. This will hopefully provide some negotiating room for US to straighten out the trade deficit with them.

One of the nice things about being older is that I am not outfitting a home like younger folks are. I have all my appliances, don't need much new clothing or any other of their products for at least a year or so. Agriculture will find new markets and that will really hurt the Chinese when they are ready to sit back down at the neg. table.
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Old 05-13-2019, 04:30 PM   #6
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I think the stock market is way over reacting and it's going to provide some good bargains.
The only thing that has been moving the market higher for the past couple months is the continual promises that the China trade deal was near. It's not an overreaction at all. It turned out to all be a bunch of nonsense. "I received a beautiful letter..." and 24 hours later all bets are off with new tariffs in place. Come on.
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Old 05-13-2019, 04:45 PM   #7
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NBC news reported it will cost the average family about $750 a year in added costs. I think the stock market is way over reacting and it's going to provide some good bargains. The Chinese just can't afford to let their inventory pile up and it will if they don't capitulate soon. They have tariffs on US goods for many years and we had none. This will hopefully provide some negotiating room for US to straighten out the trade deficit with them.

One of the nice things about being older is that I am not outfitting a home like younger folks are. I have all my appliances, don't need much new clothing or any other of their products for at least a year or so. Agriculture will find new markets and that will really hurt the Chinese when they are ready to sit back down at the neg. table.

As I understand it, 18% of Chinese exports went to the US in 2018. I'm sure tariffs will have an impact but I'm afraid that the days of China depending entirely on exports to the US for its growth are long past. We may not have as much leverage as we think we do.
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Old 05-13-2019, 04:50 PM   #8
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Old 05-13-2019, 05:12 PM   #9
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<snip>

Agriculture will find new markets and that will really hurt the Chinese when they are ready to sit back down at the neg. table.
Another interesting tidbit re agriculture. China's agricultural imports in 2017 totaled 124 billion dollars. The US sent 24 billion of that or 19% of total Chinese imports (interestingly China Purchased an equal amount from Brazil in that year). It seems to me that China will have no difficulty purchasing from Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Australia and so on and the danger of course is that this loss of the Chinese market for our farmers will then become a permanent one as China finds other, more reliable trading partners. It has been mentioned in the news that the US taxpayer then will make up for this loss of a market via government subsidies to farmers. I'm sure that our farmers would much rather sell their products legitimately rather than subsist from the public dole.
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Old 05-13-2019, 05:16 PM   #10
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Another interesting tidbit re agriculture. China's agricultural imports in 2017 totaled 124 billion dollars. The US sent 24 billion of that or 19% of total Chinese imports (interestingly China Purchased an equal amount from Brazil in that year). It seems to me that China will have no difficulty purchasing from Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Australia and so on and the danger of course is that this loss of the Chinese market for our farmers will then become a permanent one as China finds other, more reliable trading partners. It has been mentioned in the news that the US taxpayer then will make up for this loss of a market via government subsidies to farmers. I'm sure that our farmers would much rather sell their products legitimately rather than subsist from the public dole.
Good point.
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Old 05-13-2019, 05:29 PM   #11
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The US may not have the upper hand many think. Plus throw into the equation Chinese president Xi doesn't have to worry about democratic elections. Should be an interesting ride and it is a pretty common consensus among economists that tariffs and trade wars are not good for economies.
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Old 05-13-2019, 05:35 PM   #12
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It's hard to figure out what would happen in the long run. Much of the stuff coming in from China we can live without. The food the U.S. is sending into China is really, really needed.
I just fear the stubbornness of the Chinese government. They don't want to lose face.
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Old 05-13-2019, 06:05 PM   #13
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I am curious how the negotiations on both sides now and the next 18+ months will or will not be viewed as election meddling

Also curious why we don't hear more about forced technology transfer or theft of intellectual property.
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Old 05-13-2019, 06:18 PM   #14
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Also curious why we don't hear more about forced technology transfer or theft of intellectual property.
That is a very good point. Please correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to me that the forced technology transfer only occurs when one of our companies wants to build something in China in order to have access to their cheap labor and facilities so that our company can make more money. Then the Chinese force us to give them (or steal) our technology. So if our company doesn't build something in China, there is no possibility of forced technology transfer isn't that so?



On the theft of intellectual property I think you are entirely correct and the Chinese have shown they are very adept at that ( as are the Russians)
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Old 05-13-2019, 06:18 PM   #15
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The Chinese just can't afford to let their inventory pile up and it will if they don't capitulate soon.
The Chinese economy is centrally controlled to a far, far higher degree than the US economy. They can do whatever they like for longer than any US President can be in office.

Not to mention what they could do with the US debt they own...

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Agriculture will find new markets and that will really hurt the Chinese when they are ready to sit back down at the neg. table.
That's not what the soybean farmers are saying these days. The Chinese have already found other sources of soybeans and wheat. They may never need to purchase US soybeans again.
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Old 05-13-2019, 06:22 PM   #16
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Also curious why we don't hear more about forced technology transfer or theft of intellectual property.
It's due to lack of focus.

The administration started this "war" due to the perceived badness of the trade deficit. They only added the IP theft issue when they got push back from some former free-trade Republicans to add cover to their reasoning.
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Old 05-13-2019, 06:23 PM   #17
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It's hard to figure out what would happen in the long run. Much of the stuff coming in from China we can live without. The food the U.S. is sending into China is really, really needed.
I just fear the stubbornness of the Chinese government. They don't want to lose face.
Unfortunately for us the food the Chinese need can be purchased from Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Australia, etc, as they have been doing since the trade war started.

As to your second point, I agree, the Chinese have elected in their 3+ millennia past to give the rest of the world the middle finger on multiple occasions, damn the consequences.
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Any examples of Tariff's beginning to hit home?
Old 05-13-2019, 06:24 PM   #18
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Any examples of Tariff's beginning to hit home?

Up here in Minnesota we have soybean farmers who indicate in the media that they are hurting. I’m certainly not hearing farmers demanding “more trade war.” We also have a successful snowmobile and motorcycle manufacturing company called Polaris. It buys parts from China and is claiming to face a loss of one third of net revenue due to increased steel prices and is saying it will have to ship jobs to Mexico if it can’t get an exemption from the tariffs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/07/pola...-business.html
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Old 05-13-2019, 06:37 PM   #19
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Besides hammering the stock market, has anyone seen first hand the effects of tariffs? Ive read a list of products that might be affected but have not seen how this effects the cost. Anyone with examples?
There are 194 pages of items affected by the tariffs. https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files...2049153%29.pdf

But few people compare prices closely enough to know the specific impact on the items they are purchasing.

I can never remember what I paid last time I purchased "Dogfish and other sharks, fresh or chilled", for example. So when I purchase more, I won't be able to relate how much more I am contributing to this "war".

The same goes for "Camshafts and crankshafts for use solely or principally with spark-ignition internal combustion piston or rotary engines". I'm sure it will cost more, but that cost will be hidden in with the other increased costs of the 2020 car around it.

And so it goes... for 194 pages of increased costs to the American consumer.

If you think you can completely avoid the impact of these increases, you are wrong. If you think you won't notice any specific item increase, you are probably right. But you'll probably also complain that "everything just gets more expensive".

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Old 05-13-2019, 06:50 PM   #20
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The US may not have the upper hand many think. Plus throw into the equation Chinese president Xi doesn't have to worry about democratic elections. Should be an interesting ride and it is a pretty common consensus among economists that tariffs and trade wars are not good for economies.
My thoughts exactly. Chinese president Xi could wait it out for a possible regime change in the US in less than two years. In the meantime, regular folks feel the pinch one way or another .
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