Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Any thoughts on this ?
Old 02-26-2007, 12:54 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,877
Any thoughts on this ?

Greenspan warns of likely U.S. recession Mon Feb 26, 8:34 AM ET



Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Monday that the American economy might slip into recession by year's end.

He said the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001 and that there are signs the current economic cycle is coming to an end.

"When you get this far away from a recession invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign," Greenspan said via satellite link to a business conference in Hong Kong. "For example in the U.S., profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle."

"While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008 ... with some slowdown," he said.

Greenspan said that while it would be "very precarious" to try to forecast that far into the future, he could not rule out the possibility of a recession late this year.

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.5 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, up from a 2 percent rate in the third quarter. A survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics showed that experts predict economic growth of 2.7 percent this year, the slowest rate since a 1.6 percent rise in 2002.

Greenspan also warned that the U.S. budget deficit, which for 2006 fell to $247.7 billion, the lowest in four years, remains a concern.

"The American budget deficit is clearly a very significant concern for all of us that are trying to evaluate both the American economy's immediate future and that of the rest of the world," he said via satellite at the VeryGC Global Business Insights 2007 Conference.

Greenspan also said he has seen no economic spillover effects from the slowdown in the U.S. housing market.

"We are now well into the contraction period and so far we have not had any major, significant spillover effects on the American economy from the contraction in housing," he said.

__________________
Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
frayne is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Any thoughts on this ?
Old 02-26-2007, 01:39 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Any thoughts on this ?

There are some unique risks as well as some interesting fireworks going on. My guess is that we're headed into slow times, but I couldn't possibly predict the timing or magnitude.

Thankfully, portfolio protection is fairly cheap right now due to low volatility. If you're worried, consider the HaHa strategy of buying some puts.
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Thoughts on buy or lease new car, Technology changing fast rjk514 Life after FIRE 62 01-25-2007 07:50 PM
Thoughts on Relative that's bad with money JDARNELL FIRE and Money 29 12-31-2006 12:07 PM
Thoughts on Allocation. jaerco FIRE and Money 1 02-04-2006 06:20 PM
Thoughts on leveraged mutual funds? Olav23 FIRE and Money 6 10-27-2005 06:15 PM
Second Home Thoughts Rich Life after FIRE 12 05-24-2005 04:26 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:24 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.