Here is a post I gleaned from another message board
– ‘what does the future hold?’ Like you, my crystal ball is a bit fuzz at the moment. Here is what I am looking at – One; things just don’t make sense to me. Two; when we look at the unemployment numbers you see that they are still going up (a little less than 500,000) but up is up. Three; by the end of this month and continuing on into December a whole lot of Americans are schedule to lose their unemployment benefits. Unless Congress votes (which they say they will) for an extension of the cut-off period there are going to be a lot of folks without income. So, what bills get paid then? – Default (again) is the next step. By the way, an anomaly has happened – for the first time ever people have made credit card payments number one and mortgage payment number two. I guess the belief Is that it will take at least a year to get you out of a foreclosed home so with the credit card you can still maintain the house of cards and continue to float forward short term. Four; I do not believe that the underground economy, where by people work for cash under the table or barter their services for exchange is neither that strong nor that vibrant. Five; Yes, consumer sales are up higher than expected but then you had the back-to-school sales and the sales tax holidays to stimulate also; the cash for clunkers was still in full force which brought additional accessory and aftermarket sales. Six; Then there is the Government debt with TARP and the gang combined with the Federal Reserve printing presses who knows when that will come back to roost – soon I believe – I see where inflation last month was up to something like 1.5%! What I believe in a conspiratorial sort of way is that the big players are making their move to push the market higher so they can recoup their losses. Once that is accomplished they will start to pull out. If the little guy sees the markets adjust around five to ten percent then they will bail and bail fast which will start the ball rolling down hill. September and October have been bad omen months for the markets so, I am with you – I am in cash and just today I have placed stop loss orders on my holdings. I believe it is time to fasten your seatbelt and hang on tight for the ride.