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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 01:05 PM   #161
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Notth
Absolutely unscientific and irrelevant.
According to you.

Which means, of course, that it is scientific and relevant.
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 01:12 PM   #162
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Then for the 45th (and I promise last) time Art, tell me how they measure it.

Because if theres one thing I've tried to help people with all my life, its helping them realize they shouldnt swallow a statistic without knowing how it was obtained.

Do so, and you're a tool for someone.

And man Art, are you a tool...
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 01:25 PM   #163
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Notth
And man Art, are you a tool...
NOTE TO NORDS: I'm still going to try to avoid personally insulting th, but he doesn't make it easy, does he?


"County health officials said they are not allowed to ask patients about their citizenship status. Rather, they estimated the amount of money spent on illegal immigrants last year using a formula based on how many illegals they believe live in the county and how many doctor and hospital visits were not reimbursed."


Now either we believe that the County Health Department has a way to roughly approximate these costs, or we believe th, the high-school dropout/statistical genius, who says such extrapolation is impossible.

How tough is this?


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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 01:34 PM   #164
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Why dont you find out how they roughly approximate those costs Art. When I see someone say 'formula' and 'believe', believing is the last thing I do.

Did you know that ~40% of legal hispanic residents have no insurance? Or ~1 in 6.5 americans overall dont have it?

So how do you 'extrapolate' or 'estimate' unpaid care vs illegal aliens when dont know either the likelihood of either the future payment status or immigration status?

I'm sure somewhere, someone says how. Otherwise I wouldnt believe someone who wont tell you how they get to their numbers.

I dont know...believe someone who wont tell you how they come up with their 'proof', or the guy who used to get paid a million dollars a year to run multi billion dollar marketing programs that heavily employ studies, statistics,etc.

Tough call.

As far as the name calling, considering we're into page 11 of a thread YOU started (and can rename the title to at any time) calling me 'numbnuts' and making a claim that I never made, I dont think you're in much of a position to take the high road now.

But good luck with that.
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 01:41 PM   #165
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Tell me how to rename the thread, and I'll do it. I agree with you about that.
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 01:56 PM   #166
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Yes Art - please do - that was my Father's favorite moniker - until I got out of my teens - and became a reasonably dumb adult. That and and two knuckles across the forehead.
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 02:06 PM   #167
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Notth
I dont know...believe someone who wont tell you how they come up with their 'proof', or the guy who used to get paid a million dollars a year to run multi billion dollar marketing programs that heavily employ studies, statistics,etc.
How do you know LA County Health Dept. won't explain their numbers? Did you try calling them, given your burning desire to know (asking me "45 times" constitutes "burning desire to know", in my book)?

No, of course you didn't. It's easier to make a big stink about it.

It would be interesting to poll this website to see how many members believe anyone paid you $1,000,000/year for anything.
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 02:10 PM   #168
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick2
Yes Art - please do - that was my Father's favorite moniker - until I got out of my teens - and became* a reasonably dumb adult. That and and two knuckles across the forehead.
UncleMick, I'm waiting for th to tell me how to go about renaming the thread. I asked him for instructions... dead silence... for the first time all morning. Are you as surprised as I am?
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 02:32 PM   #169
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Art
How do you know LA County Health Dept. won't explain their numbers? Did you try calling them, given your burning desire to know (asking me "45 times" constitutes "burning desire to know", in my book)?
I see, so you push a source while having no idea how they get their numbers, thats ok with you, if anyone asks, its their problem.

How about saying "I am wrong" Art, unless of course you can demonstrate otherwise?
Quote:
It would be interesting to poll this website to see how many members believe anyone paid you $1,000,000/year for anything.
Go ahead...theres a poll feature. Actually 1.12M in 2000, and a paltry $896K in 1999. Something has to explain the ability to retire at 39. But you go ahead and continue with the grade school picking Art, its really showing off some of your better skills. You know, if the other guy is making you look stupid, make fun of something with no data. Right up your alley.
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 02:34 PM   #170
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Art
UncleMick, I'm waiting for th to tell me how to go about renaming the thread. I asked him for instructions... dead silence... for the first time all morning. Are you as surprised as I am?
Took a little while to feed my wife and my kid Art. I'm so sorry I wasnt here at your beck and call to act as your tech support.

Its not really important that you change it at this point. You're a boorish, irrelevant, insulting little man and I'm done with you. If you want to change the title, figure it out with your own big brain.

I'm just an uneducated twerp after all.
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 02:40 PM   #171
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Just not

I'm just an uneducated twerp after all.
I knew there had to be something we could agree on.

And don't go away mad, th. Just go away.
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 02:41 PM   #172
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

I cant make you look any dumber or more foolish Art. I really cant. So I wont fiddle with perfection...
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 03:56 PM   #173
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

There is some pretty thorough and useful legitimate data about undocumented aliens available. Here are some links and facts I could find.

Illegal Alien Resident Population according to US Department of Homeland Security.
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/abo...lien/index.htm


Some noteworthy statistics from this link:
- Of the estimated 5M undocumented aliens in the US, only 2.7M are from Mexico and only about 2.8M from Latin America.
- Only about 60% of the undocumented aliens actually crossed the border illegaly. The rest crossed legally but failed to return.
- The number of Mexicans who become undocumented is estimated to be about 150,000 a year (includes both legal and illegal initial crossing).
- So, if we spent several billion dollars to create an impenetrable barrier across our 1000 mile Mexican border, we would only be able to reduce the number of undocumented aliens by about 1.5% per year.
- And after many years of maintaining that impenetrable barrier at a cost of several billion dollars per year, we would be able to decrease the total undocumented alien population by as much as 33%(assuming undocumented populations from other countries remain at about the same levels).

The link below provides an updated estimate on the number of undocumented by about 15%.
http://uscis.gov/graphics/publicaffa...s/undocres.htm


A nice link to lots of statistics about undocumented aliens:
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/sta...ives/index.htm

There are some scholarly articles about the history of Immigration Law and the effect of undocumented aliens on the US economy.

Impact of the Mexican Immigrant Labor Force
in the United States Economy
http://www1.appstate.edu/~stefanov/student2002.pdf

The Strange Career of the Illegal Alien:
Immigration Restriction and
Deportation Policy in the
United States, 1921-1965
http://history.uchicago.edu/faculty/...i/strange.html

I was unable to find any legitimate scientific articles that addressed the medical costs implied by 5M undocumented aliens in the country, but I did find that we have about 40M American citizens are without Health Insurance.
http://books.nap.edu/html/coverage_matters/ch2.html

If we are really worried about medical costs, we should probably focus on this much larger problem first.
Of course only 2.7M of the undocumented are from Mexico -- comparing that again to 40M uninsured Americans.

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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 04:51 PM   #174
 
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

SG and TH,

You're just confusing Art with facts. He's not interested in them. He listens to Rush Limbaugh and his mind is made up.

It amazes me that we are even discussing illegal aliens. - It's probably about #500 in critical problems facing this country. I wonder what Art thinks about $500 Billion deficeits and wars that don't need to be fought!
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 04:56 PM   #175
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

You mean "numbnuts" isn't a term of endearment??
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 05:07 PM   #176
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
I wonder what Art thinks about $500 Billion deficeits and wars that don't need to be fought!
He doesn't like them (budget deficits), but he's much more concerned about the multi-trillion dollar debt, and other massive liabilities like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. As for wars that don't need to be fought, he's against them.
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 05:16 PM   #177
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Just not
I'm done with you.*
This is the second time I heard this from either th, notth, or just not.

They'll be back.
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 05:28 PM   #178
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

http://cbs2.com/health/healthla_story_132162016.html

( 2003 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. )
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 07:02 PM   #179
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

I'll be glad to talk about the topic, and now that I've dispensed with Artie, how about some real numbers?

Salaryguru provides some good data. And I dont mind the name numbnuts.

1. SG points out with good sources that the approximate number of undocumented illegal aliens is ~5M.
2. There are approximately 45M americans without health care (DeNavas-Walt, C., B. Proctor, and R. J. Mills. Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2003. U.S. Census Bureau., August 2004.)
3. The US spends approximately $100B in care for the uninsured. (Institute of Medicine. Hidden Costs, Values Lost: Uninsurance in America. The National Academies Press. 17 June 2003 .)
4. About $34B of that $100B per year is uncompensated/unpaid (same source as above)
5. Another $37B of that $100B is paid by private and public payers of health care for the uninsured. For those who havent ever heard this, an enormous amount of money is available in grants and other programs for the uninsured. My mother in law, a charge nurse, made us all aware of this when she found grants to cover a car accident for my uninsured brother in law...paid all of his bills for free. ($37B number from same source as above)
6. Another $26B is paid out of pocket by the uninsured.

So if we make several presumptions:
- Citizens and documented aliens dont go to the hospital more often than undocumented aliens, and vice versa; I think this is generous since I think undocumented aliens are far less likely to go to a hospital.
- A hospital stay and/or emergency room treatment for a documented alien or citizen is no more or less costly than for an undocumented alien, which I think is also reasonable.

That makes uninsured, uncompensated losses at $34B, spread across the 45 million uninsured and the 5 million illegal aliens. Simple math given the above constraints says 1/10th of the cost is borne by illegal aliens, making this a $3.4B problem.

That makes the unreimbursed illegal alien healthcare problem 3.4% of the total uninsured healthcare "problem". Which is in the vicinity of statistical drift, lost in the noise.

If you care to argue that illegal aliens visit hospitals more often and/or cost more per visit than US citizens, please factor in that as many as 82 million...as much as 1/3 of the US population...spent at least part of 2002 or 2003 without health insurance for some period. See the same US census report above as source for this data.

As overall healthcare in the US reached 1.7 trillion and is estimated at 1.8 trillion in 2004 (3. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group; and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census) the uninsured costs are a notable problem, but unreimbursed illegal alien healthcare costs become reduced in stature to incredibly irrelevant.

Which brings us back to lack of insurance being an issue. Healthcare costs overall being a huge problem. And all that other stuff I mentioned a few pages back.

Are we done now?

Psst...pretty good for an uneducated sot that spent all of 12 minutes assembling this info and sources?
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!
Old 07-05-2005, 07:10 PM   #180
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Re: Numbnuts thinks ILLEGAL aliens are good for us!

By the way since I dont think Arts college educated brain will figure it out, but if anyone else wishes to change a topic subject after creation.

Open the first page of the thread you made. Look at your first post you made when creating it. Look for the 'modify' button over to the right. Click it. See the 'subject' field with your original subject text. Change that to whatever you'd rather have it be, then click 'save'.
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