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Old 05-20-2010, 01:09 PM   #81
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What I am talking about is surviving in economic conditions spanning from the Weimar Republic to the Great Depression. As I said before, I don't think the end of the world is coming.
If you like farming, knock yourself out. It is a great way to spend a life. I just don't think, and I err very much on the cautious side of life, that even in a Great Depression type scenario, my carefully invested $s wonít buy me food and shelter. Therefore, buying farmland does not makes a whole lot of sense unless you want to work it. (This is not to say high quality farmland isn't a very good investment, it most likely is, but it isnít an area I know anything about as an investor.)

As to Weimar Republic, it is not relevant to the US at all. The Weimar Republic mess was self inflicted by the Germans, having lost WWI and then being subject to war reparations. There is no scenario in our lifetime horizon where I can see this being at all possible.
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Old 05-20-2010, 01:20 PM   #82
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If you like farming, knock yourself out. It is a great way to spend a life. I just don't think, and I err very much on the cautious side of life, that even in a Great Depression type scenario, my carefully invested $s wonít buy me food and shelter. Therefore, buying farmland does not makes a whole lot of sense unless you want to work it. (This is not to say high quality farmland isn't a very good investment, it most likely is, but it isnít an area I know anything about as an investor.)

As to Weimar Republic, it is not relevant to the US at all. The Weimar Republic mess was self inflicted by the Germans, having lost WWI and then being subject to war reparations. There is no scenario in our lifetime horizon where I can see this being at all possible.
Ah? I thought people were worried about high inflation... If we do end up having high inflation, will the cause of it be relevant to your survival?

But there is no need to work yourself up. You can invest your money however you want. I don't care either way.
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Old 05-20-2010, 01:24 PM   #83
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Congratulations on your successful effort to time the market and know when to exit.
Actually I exited too soon but I had the conviction to stay out of real estate.
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Please let us know when it is safe to go back into the water.
I think it will be fairly obvious. I would not want to take the responsibility for anyone else's decisions.
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Old 05-20-2010, 01:29 PM   #84
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The Newfies I've known are nice folks. You did know that Newfoundland is an island, didn't you? There are ferries. Go during the summer when it is more accessible.

How will we know you really got there and didn't just download photos off the internet? You would have to include yourself in a photo but then we would never recognize you anyway.
If you chose to disbelieve me, you would just say I graft a photo of an actor to a background picture.

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A few acres of fertile farm land and the knowledge to work that land will go a long way to sustain my family no matter what the economy looks like. And if the gold bugs want to eat, they'll have to give me their gold first...
Having no fertile farmland but less than 2 acres of hilly and rocky land that even the evergreen trees have a tough time growing, I will have to find a way to armor my RV and to use it to roam the countryside looking to rob scavenge for food.

Oh gee! I have been out in the yard working, and just come back inside to see the Dow dropping near 10,000 and people are talking doomsday again. Reminiscent of the 2007-2008 period, isn't it?
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Old 05-20-2010, 01:31 PM   #85
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Ah? I thought people were worried about high inflation... If we do end up having high inflation, will the cause of it be relevant to your survival?

But there is no need to work yourself up. You can invest your money however you want. I don't care either way.
Who is worked up? Certainly not me. I don't have to till the land . I just have to sit back in my cushy chair and watch my screens.

As to inflation there is concern at some point down the road, but that risk can be dealt with in many ways from a portfolio perspective. IMHO, at this point deflation is the bigger worry. Hyper-inflation (a la Weimar) is not a factor at all in my thinking.
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Old 05-20-2010, 01:38 PM   #86
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Oh gee! I have been out in the yard working, and just come back inside to see the Dow dropping near 10,000 and people are talking doomsday again. Reminiscent of the 2007-2008 period, isn't it?
Yes flashback... I rode the wave in 2008-2009, but I have to admit that the constant doomsday talk got to me yesterday. I cashed in some of my stocks. I may give up a bit of growth if the market rebounds, but so what... I have a lot more to lose today than I did 2 years ago.
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Old 05-20-2010, 01:39 PM   #87
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As to inflation there is concern at some point down the road, but that risk can be dealt with in many ways from a portfolio perspective. IMHO, at this point deflation is the bigger worry. Hyper-inflation (a la Weimar) is not a factor at all in my thinking.
Please read my posts on the gold thread... I agree with you 100%!

where are the gold threads?
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Old 05-20-2010, 02:58 PM   #88
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Glad I made a stop by the beer med store on the way home today. Damn stock market going to hell again. Thank God I bought some VXX a few days ago.
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Old 05-20-2010, 03:06 PM   #89
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You, you, short seller you... Because you and who knows who else doing that, it makes the market go down more.
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Old 05-20-2010, 03:20 PM   #90
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You, you, short seller you... Because you and who knows who else doing that, it makes the market go down more.
And we all thought the "Efficient Market Theory" was discredited.
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Old 05-20-2010, 03:40 PM   #91
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I suspect the ease of trading nowadays plus the advent of the double-long and double-short ETFs may exarcebate the market movements. But I am not sure how it ties to the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

OK, so the bears won this round. Will see what happens tomorrow, or next week. I am not selling, nor buying.
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Old 05-20-2010, 04:07 PM   #92
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the advent of the double-long and double-short ETFs may exarcebate the market movements.
I triple short with SPXU. It's a wild ride. Up 15% down 27% back up. The gov'ts are filling up with debt, the streets are filling with protestors, the gulf is filling with oil...lots of fun times ahead... Time to take some profits, but I'm still short and in cash.
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Old 05-20-2010, 04:17 PM   #93
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I triple short with SPXU...Time to take some profits, but I'm still short and in cash.
I am still more than 70% in equities. We are on the opposite side of the trade, but I won't call you names I just like to joke around. I pays my money and takes my chances. And I lost today.

And yesterday...

And the day before that

But one of these days, revenge will be sweet.

The "triumph of the optimists"...
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Old 05-20-2010, 04:18 PM   #94
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Careful all you gamblers speculators investors - history has a habit of repeating itself...

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Old 05-20-2010, 04:38 PM   #95
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Glad I made a stop by the beer med store on the way home today. Damn stock market going to hell again. Thank God I bought some VXX a few days ago.
My cat Eddie has somethin' for ya Dawg
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Old 05-20-2010, 04:44 PM   #96
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Meh, I am a long term investor and I understand what I own and why I bought it. It is very unpleasant to watch market values come down, but it doesn't change my longterm view of the operating businesses I either own a piece of or lent against.

Hint as to underlying economic activity during this fun: dry bulk day rates have been flat to up during the volatility and the freight futures market actually went up across all dry ship classes today.
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Old 05-20-2010, 04:55 PM   #97
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You, you, short seller you... Because you and who knows who else doing that, it makes the market go down more.
Ok, I'm sorry. I sold today for a nice 40% profit. Probably too early as usual.

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Careful all you gamblers speculators investors - history has a habit of repeating itself...
Yes, investor now days = gambler...speculator.


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Your cat is on better med's than me.
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Old 05-20-2010, 06:37 PM   #98
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But one of these days, revenge will be sweet.
Don't get me wrong. I'm a very long term bull. 2 billion people in Asia need everything from toothpase to cars. There will be a time. It's just that the American consumer has pulled us this far, and he/she is now dead and his/her leaders are lost.

When Asian gov'ts finally decide to put their money in their peoples hands and not in treasuries...look out. I lied a little earlier. I'm still long stuff like beverages, cigarettes, fast food, and toiletries...things I know they love over there.

I hope to ride the optimism train with you again. I pray you get your revenge some day.
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Old 05-20-2010, 06:57 PM   #99
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OK. Good to hear that. I will admit that you are a better trader than I am.

But what is this revenge "some day"? I want it tomorrow, or next week! I don't have much time left, you hear?
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Old 05-21-2010, 12:10 AM   #100
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I will admit that you are a better trader than I am. But what is this revenge "some day"? I want it tomorrow, or next week! I don't have much time left, you hear?
Oh hardly. "I'm still a million bucks short of being a millionaire"-Uncle Buck.

Don't have much time left? I thought I saw in your signature you're 53. I'm 52. If you don't have much time, well.....

"Some day"? Ya that's my negativity leaking out. I really feel the fundamentals are horrible. I can't see a logical case for an up side. I'm not here to argue or to convince anyone I'm right. I'm always hoping someone can provide me with a clear case in which employment, salaries, spending, and profits rise.

Most people in my extended family are on some kind of gov't support or are hurting. I really do hope your optimism carries the day, and you have your revenge in the morning.
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