Are we headed for a "fall"?

It dawned on me last night that all this analysis and hand-wringing about the market sell-off is easily explained by simply looking at the calendar. Nothing more than [-]gamblers[/-] [-]speculators[/-] investors following the advice of their Financial Advisors to "Sell in May and go away". :D
 
Maybe it is time for another look at my favorite chart
four-bears-large.gif
 
haha said:
I am not the world's best board historian, but as I remember most negative forecasts or reports of negative forecasts have been riduculed all along.

I believe that Firecalc and also the whole (doubtful) SWR idea have made people focus almost exclusively on the market value of their holdings, instead of the earning and dividend power of the portfolio. So a fall in market value implies a lower standard of living, and people who are very eager to leave work do not like this.

This focus on market values is suboptimal, unless one plans to annuitize. Building a retirement on a total return liquidating model is very risky, and will every now and then create havoc.

Platitudes are also very popular, such as "never bet against America". As if America or any other process were an unchanging stable value for all eternity. America today is completely different from America 150 or 100 or 50 years ago, as is most of the rest of the world and the world's competitive and economic and geopolitical realities.

Ha
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Unless secretly - in your own heart you really are a cheap SOB and wish you had learned to speak Norwegian.

Here's to old pickup's with rusty fenders, Wal Mart overalls in hard times and super duper Tractor Supply house brand when times are good.

heh heh heh - meanwhile balanced index on full auto. And pssst Wellesley for those who still like manual transmissions. :D :whistle:.
 
REWahoo said:
It dawned on me last night that all this analysis and hand-wringing about the market sell-off is easily explained by simply looking at the calendar. Nothing more than [-]gamblers[/-] [-]speculators[/-] investors following the advice of their Financial Advisors to "Sell in May and go away". :D
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Oh..I've got it now....:facepalm:

Come back in June and whistle a tune?....:whistle:
 
unclemick said:
Unless secretly - in your own heart you really are a cheap SOB and wish you had learned to speak Norwegian.

Here's to old pickup's with rusty fenders, Wal Mart overalls in hard times and super duper Tractor Supply house brand when times are good.

heh heh heh - meanwhile balanced index on full auto. And pssst Wellesley for those who still like manual transmissions. :D :whistle:.
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What? No Saints back to the Superbowl!! Or did you cross that off your bucket list?

DD
 
Ok…so it’s…..

Sell in May and go away.

Come back in June and whistle a tune.

I suspect June is too soon,
come back in the Fall and we'll celebrate, ya'll.

That’s a long time to wait ‘til October
and finally be able to remain sober.

Then by December
We won't even remember...

And next year in May
we'll forget and just stay.

(again)

:blink:
 
Anyone else trading mutual funds today? I’ve got a Roth conversion pending, going from ginnie mae to large cap. Large enough amount to be interesting but not so big to be scary. My usual luck will see an up market at COB, I’m guessing the ginnie will be down 4 to 6 cents and the large cap will be up 80 cents.
 
CuppaJoe said:
Anyone else trading mutual funds today? I’ve got a Roth conversion pending, going from ginnie mae to large cap. Large enough amount to be interesting but not so big to be scary. My usual luck will see an up market at COB, I’m guessing the ginnie will be down 4 to 6 cents and the large cap will be up 80 cents.
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I went ahead and finished topping off our IRA's yesterday while the market was way down. And bought a little bit of SCZ (international small cap) with some spare change laying around the Fidelity account. Unfortunately the IRA's are at Vanguard and I didn't have any cash at VG so I get today's trade date and pricing as of today's close of business. All this activity amounts to less than a percent of the total portfolio, so no biggie.

My fingers are crossed for five more years of a depressed stock market and "the death of equities". So I can buy lots more stuff cheap. Sorry if that wrecks everyone else's ER plans. :D
 
REWahoo said:
Nope, I'm strapped in for the roller coaster ride. I've got my lap belt cinched so tight I'm afraid it may cut off blood circulation to my legs. :)
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Me too, plus my shoulder harness and crash helmet, and I'm drawing my breath for a wild-eyed, "EEEEEEEK! EEEEEYAAAHHHH!" :eek: when we next plummet into the abyss. :2funny: :whistle: There is always a next time, after all, both for ups and for downs.
 
It was too much for me, I took the Rollercoaster Rush app off the iPod and am now into "Dogs Playing Poker."
 
Looked around to see if there was anything I wanted to buy - or sell - for a few quick bucks and decided that the magic 8-ball was telling me the truth when it said, "Reply hazy, try again".

So I decided to go and stimulate the economy and went car shopping.

I think I'll stick with what Merryle Rukeyser said on his son's show one night, when in his late 80's he was asked if he was still invested in the stock market. "A man my age", he said, "can't afford to not have exposure to equities."

The markets are having a moment and I'll just avoid being sucked in to the craziness for the time being.
 
Moemg said:
I've just cranked up my ebay sales and put the Ipad on hold !
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Don't do it, don't do it!! Just joking but I know you want that iPad for your travels. :)

But then again, maybe they'll come out with an iPad II or something this winter. Then those who waited could be glad they did.
 
Leonidas said:
....
I think I'll stick with what Merryle Rukeyser said on his son's show one night, when in his late 80's he was asked if he was still invested in the stock market. "A man my age", he said, "can't afford to not have exposure to equities."

....
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That's states my position very well, I would feel more comfortable if I were more exposed; it's what I got used it in 38 years of ups and downs. Don't want to be left behind when/if it takes off again.
 
W2R said:
Don't do it, don't do it!! Just joking but I know you want that iPad for your travels. :)

But then again, maybe they'll come out with an iPad II or something this winter. Then those who waited could be glad they did.
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Well since I'm just back from two trips I'm safe for awhile . The drops put me into Uncle Mick mode ( cheap bastard ) for awhile .
 
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