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Old 05-21-2010, 07:57 AM   #101
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It dawned on me last night that all this analysis and hand-wringing about the market sell-off is easily explained by simply looking at the calendar. Nothing more than gamblers speculators investors following the advice of their Financial Advisors to "Sell in May and go away".
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Old 05-21-2010, 08:08 AM   #102
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Maybe it is time for another look at my favorite chart
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Old 05-21-2010, 08:36 AM   #103
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I am not the world's best board historian, but as I remember most negative forecasts or reports of negative forecasts have been riduculed all along.

I believe that Firecalc and also the whole (doubtful) SWR idea have made people focus almost exclusively on the market value of their holdings, instead of the earning and dividend power of the portfolio. So a fall in market value implies a lower standard of living, and people who are very eager to leave work do not like this.

This focus on market values is suboptimal, unless one plans to annuitize. Building a retirement on a total return liquidating model is very risky, and will every now and then create havoc.

Platitudes are also very popular, such as "never bet against America". As if America or any other process were an unchanging stable value for all eternity. America today is completely different from America 150 or 100 or 50 years ago, as is most of the rest of the world and the world's competitive and economic and geopolitical realities.

Ha
Unless secretly - in your own heart you really are a cheap SOB and wish you had learned to speak Norwegian.

Here's to old pickup's with rusty fenders, Wal Mart overalls in hard times and super duper Tractor Supply house brand when times are good.

heh heh heh - meanwhile balanced index on full auto. And pssst Wellesley for those who still like manual transmissions. .
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Old 05-21-2010, 10:23 AM   #104
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It dawned on me last night that all this analysis and hand-wringing about the market sell-off is easily explained by simply looking at the calendar. Nothing more than gamblers speculators investors following the advice of their Financial Advisors to "Sell in May and go away".
Oh..I've got it now....

Come back in June and whistle a tune?....
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Old 05-21-2010, 11:12 AM   #105
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Come back in June and whistle a tune?....
I suspect June is too soon,
come back in the Fall and we'll celebrate, ya'll...
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Old 05-21-2010, 11:20 AM   #106
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I suspect June is too soon,
come back in the Fall and we'll celebrate, ya'll...
Then by December
We won't even remember...

And next year in May
we'll forget and just stay.

(again)
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Old 05-21-2010, 11:25 AM   #107
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Unless secretly - in your own heart you really are a cheap SOB and wish you had learned to speak Norwegian.

Here's to old pickup's with rusty fenders, Wal Mart overalls in hard times and super duper Tractor Supply house brand when times are good.

heh heh heh - meanwhile balanced index on full auto. And pssst Wellesley for those who still like manual transmissions. .
What? No Saints back to the Superbowl!! Or did you cross that off your bucket list?

DD
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Old 05-21-2010, 11:26 AM   #108
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What? No Saints back to the Superbowl!! Or did you cross that off your bucket list?
Drew Brees is this year's Madden cover.
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Old 05-21-2010, 11:41 AM   #109
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Ok…so it’s…..

Sell in May and go away.

Come back in June and whistle a tune.

I suspect June is too soon,
come back in the Fall and we'll celebrate, ya'll.

That’s a long time to wait ‘til October
and finally be able to remain sober.

Then by December
We won't even remember...

And next year in May
we'll forget and just stay.

(again)

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Old 05-21-2010, 11:51 AM   #110
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long term long term long term...
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Old 05-21-2010, 12:46 PM   #111
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Anyone else trading mutual funds today? Iíve got a Roth conversion pending, going from ginnie mae to large cap. Large enough amount to be interesting but not so big to be scary. My usual luck will see an up market at COB, Iím guessing the ginnie will be down 4 to 6 cents and the large cap will be up 80 cents.
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Old 05-21-2010, 12:57 PM   #112
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Anyone else trading mutual funds today?
Nope, I'm strapped in for the roller coaster ride. I've got my lap belt cinched so tight I'm afraid it may cut off blood circulation to my legs.
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Old 05-21-2010, 01:04 PM   #113
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Anyone else trading mutual funds today? Iíve got a Roth conversion pending, going from ginnie mae to large cap. Large enough amount to be interesting but not so big to be scary. My usual luck will see an up market at COB, Iím guessing the ginnie will be down 4 to 6 cents and the large cap will be up 80 cents.
I went ahead and finished topping off our IRA's yesterday while the market was way down. And bought a little bit of SCZ (international small cap) with some spare change laying around the Fidelity account. Unfortunately the IRA's are at Vanguard and I didn't have any cash at VG so I get today's trade date and pricing as of today's close of business. All this activity amounts to less than a percent of the total portfolio, so no biggie.

My fingers are crossed for five more years of a depressed stock market and "the death of equities". So I can buy lots more stuff cheap. Sorry if that wrecks everyone else's ER plans.
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Old 05-21-2010, 01:19 PM   #114
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Nope, I'm strapped in for the roller coaster ride. I've got my lap belt cinched so tight I'm afraid it may cut off blood circulation to my legs.


I'm a little nervous, too.
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Old 05-21-2010, 01:52 PM   #115
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Nope, I'm strapped in for the roller coaster ride. I've got my lap belt cinched so tight I'm afraid it may cut off blood circulation to my legs.
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Originally Posted by CuppaJoe View Post


I'm a little nervous, too.
You guys worry too much.

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Old 05-21-2010, 01:58 PM   #116
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You guys worry too much.
Alfred E Newman.JPG
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Old 05-21-2010, 01:59 PM   #117
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You guys worry too much.

It must be 5:00 p.m. somewhere.
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Old 05-21-2010, 03:20 PM   #118
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Nope, I'm strapped in for the roller coaster ride. I've got my lap belt cinched so tight I'm afraid it may cut off blood circulation to my legs.
Me too, plus my shoulder harness and crash helmet, and I'm drawing my breath for a wild-eyed, "EEEEEEEK! EEEEEYAAAHHHH!" when we next plummet into the abyss. There is always a next time, after all, both for ups and for downs.
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Old 05-21-2010, 04:05 PM   #119
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I've just cranked up my ebay sales and put the Ipad on hold !
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Old 05-21-2010, 04:10 PM   #120
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Both the Dow and the TSX are up again....it's a rollercoaster!

Makes me think of investments like these....

Mortgage Investment Corporation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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