Are we headed for a "fall"?

[FIREd]

Quote:

Originally Posted by dex You are wrong about the world surviving. Earth - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The Earth's increasing surface temperature will accelerate the inorganic CO2 cycle, reducing its concentration to levels lethally low for plants (10 ppm for C4 photosynthesis) in approximately 500 million[19] to 900 million years.

[RonBoyd]

Quote:

Originally Posted by dex The Earth's increasing surface temperature will accelerate the inorganic CO2 cycle, reducing its concentration to levels lethally low for plants (10 ppm for C4 photosynthesis) in approximately 500 million[19] to 900 million years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo We're all doomed - we just don't know when it will arrive and in what form it will appear.

Well, now you know.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leonidas Here's something for those of you who are serious about doom and gloom:

The photo looks like a shot from a typical horror flic - scary big guy/freak hides behind door to pounce on cute young blond...

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by dex You are wrong about the world surviving. Earth - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The Earth's increasing surface temperature will accelerate the inorganic CO2 cycle, reducing its concentration to levels lethally low for plants (10 ppm for C4 photosynthesis) in approximately 500 million[19] to 900 million years.

Plenty of time for life to adapt!

Now when the sun expands - that's really it for the earth.

Audrey

[W2R]

My goodness!!

As for me, I am sure we are headed for a "fall"... and a "rise", lather rinse and repeat. I don't really know how big the ups and downs will be, but I am sure we have many of each ahead of us.

Life is a rollercoaster, and so is the market. My approach is to hang on, expect ups and downs, be agile/adaptable (because there WILL be changes), and enjoy the ride immensely and completely because we only get one.

[Zathras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R ... As for me, I am sure we are headed for a "fall"... and a "rise", lather rinse and repeat. I don't really know how big the ups and downs will be, but I am sure we have many of each ahead of us. Life is a rollercoaster, and so is the market. My approach is to hang on, expect ups and downs, be agile/adaptable (because there WILL be changes), and enjoy the ride immensely and completely because we only get one.

+1

[LARS]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound The advantage of living in a developed country, and a large one like the US, is that it would not be a fall, but a decline, a slide, giving us time to react, to ponder the gloomy predictions of doomsayers, and to take corrective actions if necessary. Citizens of little countries like Lebanon, Zimbabwe, Cuba, North Korea, Vietnam, did not have such luxuries. ).

Pre WW II German's might disagree with your observation; however, I think your point has validity.

[bbbamI]

Man Selling Spots In Hidden Bunker Called Vivos As Last Hope - cbs2.com

From the article....

Would you want to survive or would you want to sit on the porch with chardonnay or Jack Daniels and watch the show?" Vicino asked.

Jack Daniels for me please.....

[Pete]

Dex, I agree with you 100%.

Quote:

Dr. Ridley writes. “And the reason that economic growth has accelerated so in the past two centuries is down to the fact that ideas have been mixing more than ever before.”

Probably just as likely it was the spreading use of cheap and easy energy found in fossil fuels.

Quote:

Our progress is unsustainable, he argues, only if we stifle innovation and trade, the way China and other empires did in the past.

What happens to a country who gets out-innovated and has a 30 to 60 billion dollar monthly trade deficit?

[Dawg52]

Screw all this doom and gloom crap. I'm gonna have a med and watch Andy and Barney.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 Screw all this doom and gloom crap. I'm gonna have a med and watch Andy and Barney.

Wave hello to Opie for me!

I have the same attitudes but don't need the meds to get there (yet). It will all work out.

[73ss454]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 Screw all this doom and gloom crap. I'm gonna have a med and watch Andy and Barney.

Now that you have most of your $ tucked away in CD's, what are you worried about. Or is this just an excuse for medication.

[DblDoc]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 73ss454 Now that you have most of your $ tucked away in CD's, what are you worried about.

Inflation?

I just ran my numbers to see what is lagging and low and behold I don't need to invest in bonds this month. And my NW took its biggest $ hit in a month ever...

I'll need some of Dawg52's liquid courage to help me stomach buying international equities tomorrow...

DD

[Pete]

I've found it curious in ER forums, that to be negative about the economy (or a portion of it) quickly leads to "doom and gloom" ridicule. Were there any doom and gloom forecasts about the tech bubble or eventual real estate crash? Were they ridiculed? Did anyone listen and save themselves a lot of heartache?

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pete I've found it curious in ER forums, that to be negative about the economy (or a portion of it) quickly leads to "doom and gloom" ridicule. Were there any doom and gloom forecasts about the tech bubble or eventual real estate crash? Were they ridiculed? Did anyone listen and save themselves a lot of heartache?

I am not the world's best board historian, but as I remember most negative forecasts or reports of negative forecasts have been riduculed all along.

I believe that Firecalc and also the whole (doubtful) SWR idea have made people focus almost exclusively on the market value of their holdings, instead of the earning and dividend power of the portfolio. So a fall in market value implies a lower standard of living, and people who are very eager to leave work do not like this.

This focus on market values is suboptimal, unless one plans to annuitize. Building a retirement on a total return liquidating model is very risky, and will every now and then create havoc.

Platitudes are also very popular, such as "never bet against America". As if America or any other process were an unchanging stable value for all eternity. America today is completely different from America 150 or 100 or 50 years ago, as is most of the rest of the world and the world's competitive and economic and geopolitical realities.

Ha

[LARS]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha I believe that Firecalc and also the whole (doubtful) SWR idea have made people focus almost exclusively on the market value of their holdings, instead of the earning and dividend power of the portfolio. So a fall in market value implies a lower standard of living, and people who are very eager to leave work do not like this. This focus on market values is suboptimal, unless one plans to annuitize. Building a retirement on a total return liquidating model is very risky, and will every now and then create havoc.

Would you mind expanding your thoughts? Not exactly sure where you are coming from, especially focus on market value, unless you are saying income generation is more your focus?

[Dawg52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 73ss454 Or is this just an excuse for medication.

Now you know why I watch cnbc.

[brewer12345]

Yes, we are due for fall in about 4 months. What's the official date this year? September 22 or so?

Seriously, we did not have a correction all the way up in the recovery from the abyss. So we are having an overdue one. I think Europe will sort its issues out and this will prove to be the "pause that refreshes.". But as always, you pays your money and you thes your chances.

[lets-retire]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 Yes, we are due for fall in about 4 months. What's the official date this year? September 22 or so? Seriously, we did not have a correction all the way up in the recovery from the abyss. So we are having an overdue one. I think Europe will sort its issues out and this will prove to be the "pause that refreshes.". But as always, you pays your money and you thes your chances.

Not only that, but I think this recession wasn't long or hard enough for people to correct their bad financial behaviors that led to the problems to begin with. Few people were forced to take responsibility for their actions and those who did act responsibly were forced to pay for those who didn't. It will happen again, relatively soon.

[Gone4Good]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha I believe that Firecalc and also the whole (doubtful) SWR idea have made people focus almost exclusively on the market value of their holdings, instead of the earning and dividend power of the portfolio. So a fall in market value implies a lower standard of living, and people who are very eager to leave work do not like this.

Earnings and dividends are only marginally more reliable than market values. Short-term interest rates have fallen more than 90% in the past 5-years, 5 year CD rates are down about 50%, market earnings last year went negative, and SPX dividends fell almost 25% from their peak. Someone who put together an income portfolio in 2005 hoping to live off the yield is on a pretty strict diet right now (especially if they filled that portfolio with yieldy financials and RETIs).

There is no "safe" way to do what we're all trying to do. So to even attempt it implies some level of optimism. What's surprising is that folks who tend toward pessimism would even think about something as uncertain as early retirement . . . which is probably why they find strong resistance here.