Originally Posted by wab
Nords, you must have been involved in war games.* *What does the pentagon consider the most likely scenario for the next world war?* Or is that classified?
My guess would be China vs Taiwan.
I debriefed all my classified knowledge four years ago, not that I could pretend to have a strategic clue. *And just to make sure that my debriefing was effective we also decommissioned any submarine that I may have stood watch on.
But the current war games-- that would be my spouse. *What follows is my speculation from the exercises in which she's been asked to participate.
Keep in mind that our military is the same one which was so well-prepared & briefed for the fall of the Berlin Wall. *It's also the same military which retroactively discovered (by reading their war plans) that the East Germans would have used the Berlin sewers to invade the Allied zone and kick some serious assets from behind the lines.
With those disclaimers, you're right. *PRC-Taiwan is the current scenario attracting all the thought-tank funding and the exercise money. *OTOH when three carriers crossed tracks near Guam a few weeks ago, PACOM did everything he could to bring as many PRC officers aboard as he could to show them how Americans run an exercise. *The idea is that if we're spending all that time, effort, & money then we might as well "strike fear & trembling into the heart of the enemy".* *The idea is that the U.S. would surge into the Tawain straits, smack both sides smartly upside the head if necessary, and assist in seeking a diplomatic solution.
We're not too happy about the situation in DPRK, either, but it's attracting a lot of reconnaissance & surveillance attention. *(As well as training a whole new generation of steely-eyed killers of the deep.) *That war plan is considered to be well in hand and is just exercised every summer as a logistics scenario.
PACOM's also keeping a surveillance eye (more submarine-sensor wizardry) on terrorism activity throughout the Pacific area and hoping that Israel doesn't screw things up more than they already have...
*In memory of ADM Rickover's speech at the commissioning of the USS OHIO.