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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3
Old 07-28-2006, 12:42 AM   #21
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3

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Originally Posted by wab
Nords, you must have been involved in war games.* *What does the pentagon consider the most likely scenario for the next world war?* Or is that classified?
My guess would be China vs Taiwan.
I debriefed all my classified knowledge four years ago, not that I could pretend to have a strategic clue. *And just to make sure that my debriefing was effective we also decommissioned any submarine that I may have stood watch on.

But the current war games-- that would be my spouse. *What follows is my speculation from the exercises in which she's been asked to participate.

Keep in mind that our military is the same one which was so well-prepared & briefed for the fall of the Berlin Wall. *It's also the same military which retroactively discovered (by reading their war plans) that the East Germans would have used the Berlin sewers to invade the Allied zone and kick some serious assets from behind the lines.

With those disclaimers, you're right. *PRC-Taiwan is the current scenario attracting all the thought-tank funding and the exercise money. *OTOH when three carriers crossed tracks near Guam a few weeks ago, PACOM did everything he could to bring as many PRC officers aboard as he could to show them how Americans run an exercise. *The idea is that if we're spending all that time, effort, & money then we might as well "strike fear & trembling into the heart of the enemy".* *The idea is that the U.S. would surge into the Tawain straits, smack both sides smartly upside the head if necessary, and assist in seeking a diplomatic solution.

We're not too happy about the situation in DPRK, either, but it's attracting a lot of reconnaissance & surveillance attention. *(As well as training a whole new generation of steely-eyed killers of the deep.) *That war plan is considered to be well in hand and is just exercised every summer as a logistics scenario.

PACOM's also keeping a surveillance eye (more submarine-sensor wizardry) on terrorism activity throughout the Pacific area and hoping that Israel doesn't screw things up more than they already have...

*In memory of ADM Rickover's speech at the commissioning of the USS OHIO.
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3
Old 07-28-2006, 12:58 AM   #22
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3

China gives me the willies on so many levels. They're smart, ambitious, disciplined, and ruthless. (Can you tell that my wife is Chinese?)

They remind me of America before we got fat and lazy.
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3
Old 07-28-2006, 03:22 AM   #23
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3

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Originally Posted by samclem
No sane person thinks the fight against Islamic extremists can be won strictly through military means.
So this confirms my suspicions about Dick Cheney?* *

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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3
Old 07-28-2006, 07:34 AM   #24
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3

Hmmm

Ditto Nord's comments - DPRK - the youngest nephew(recon) is interesting in those thing's he won't talk about - so reading between the lines is fun.

The knot head Marine will be back from his third all expense vacation this winter - suspect his thoughts will be along the lines expressed by Nord's - again attempting to read between the lines from talking to the wife.

heh heh heh
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3
Old 07-28-2006, 07:45 PM   #25
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3

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Originally Posted by Nords

Iraq's armed forces are learning.* They're learning very slowly and they don't exactly seem eager to perform but they're learning.*
One of my best friends is just about to come home from his 3rd tour in Iraq. He volunteered for all of his tours and was enthusiastic about the war until this last tour training ISF for 7 months. I've never seen anyone go from optimistic to jaded so darn fast. He's not home yet so don't have the full story but lots of "blah, blah, blah" about the brass caring more about how stuff briefs than what actually gets accomplished and trying not to "choke the Iraqis". Of course nothing new in the military, but his assessment is that the ISF unit they worked with are no better off now than when he started in January. Short time frame and anecdotal for sure, but his frustration over this last tour was enough for him to leave the military... he's getting out the minute he gets back.
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3
Old 07-28-2006, 10:18 PM   #26
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3

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One of my best friends is just about to come home from his 3rd tour in Iraq.* He volunteered for all of his tours and was enthusiastic about the war until this last tour training ISF for 7 months.* I've never seen anyone go from optimistic to jaded so darn fast.* He's not home yet so don't have the full story but lots of "blah, blah, blah" about the brass caring more about how stuff briefs than what actually gets accomplished and trying not to "choke the Iraqis".* Of course nothing new in the military, but his assessment is that the ISF unit they worked with are no better off now than when he started in January.* Short time frame and anecdotal for sure, but his frustration over this last tour was enough for him to leave the military... he's getting out the minute he gets back.
Yeah. I'm skeptical of reports from this administration that the "Iraquis are learning". First, I'm not sure what metric is being used to quantify this improvement. Sometimes I suspect it is a metric of blind hope.

Even if the Iraquis are learning, so are the terrorists and the various factions of chaos. The Iraquis may be learning, but not fast enough to make progress. When progress is measured in incidence of violence and murder, in the lack of adequate infrastucture, in US casualties, . . . it doesn't seem like the Iraquis are learning fast enough.

Since retiring, I haven't participated in DoD strategic planning exercises so I haven't seen briefings about the invasion of Iraq. I still have colleagues who participate, though, and they are not very optimistic these days.
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3
Old 07-28-2006, 10:32 PM   #27
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Re: Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3

I worry when China and the US ever go at it. I wouldnt doubt it going nuclear.
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