Are you looking forward to self driving cars?

[Totoro]

I'm really looking forward to it.

Logically, all of the following should happen:

• Cars will actually be used instead of standing still all day. The average utilization now is <10%. This could easily become 30%.
• Driving yourself will become illegal on most roads because self-drivers will have less than a tenth of the accidents (being generous here). Computers don't get tired, drunk, high, nor emotional.
• Car ownership will become like owning a horse: for enthusiasts only. Why own a car when it's a factor 3 cheaper to not own one and there is always one of the kind you like just a beep away?
• Congestion will plummet and become more predictable
• Ride sharing becomes easier and drives down cost and congestion further.
• Parking lots will become smaller, freeing up real estate
• 1M people will lose their jobs (truck and taxi drivers)
• Speeding and parking ticket revenue will disappear overnight, taxes will be raised elsewhere
• Transport of goods will drop by 10% or more (no truck driver).
• Fuel efficiency goes up since self-drivers can tailgate with very little added risk, cutting on wind drag.

So safer roads, less accidents, less hassle and more economic efficiency.


If only we can find better jobs for the truck drivers, what's not to like?


Like having the best chauffeur in the world available to you 24/7 at a reduced cost, and none of the hassle.

[gcgang]

No. I love to drive.

OTOH, when robo cars are the norm, there will be no need to own a car. Uber uber alles.


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[chilkoot]

I love driving/riding and don't relish the idea of self-driving cars becoming mandatory. But the handwriting is on the wall. Luckily I really like my 2008 Infiniti since I may end up keeping it longer than anticipated.
Not to change the subject, but what about the occasional, unavoidable worst-case scenario where a car must decide between taking out a pedestrian and causing an accident that might take several lives? Does programming really contain reasoning to take as few lives as possible?

[harley]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chilkoot Not to change the subject, but what about the occasional, unavoidable worst-case scenario where a car must decide between taking out a pedestrian and causing an accident that might take several lives? Does programming really contain reasoning to take as few lives as possible?

Well, if I was coding it I would have the car flash the red lights, sound the internal siren, and hand control back to the driver. "Here, you deal with it!".

Seriously, that's going to be one of the major holdups for this becoming universal. Liability. I would hope the software would make the "lowest death count" choice. You can never predict everything.

[Amethyst]

I honestly don't think it's going to "really" happen in my lifetime. Oh sure, there will be some auto-auto's, but it won't be universally adopted.

I always liked this old idea,
The Roads Must Roll - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
although even back then they had the pre-Internet version of "hackers" to worry about, and rolling roads were quite vulnerable to the pre-Internet version of a SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) attack.

[Totoro]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chilkoot Not to change the subject, but what about the occasional, unavoidable worst-case scenario where a car must decide between taking out a pedestrian and causing an accident that might take several lives? Does programming really contain reasoning to take as few lives as possible?

Well, how do humans deal with this?

From my own (limited) experience, these are the rules you sort of try to implement when heading for likely collision. First: reduce speed, then:

• Don't hit anything
• If that doesn't work, don't hit anything alive
• If that doesn't work, don't hit any humans
• If that doesn't work, don't hit unprotected humans
• If that doesn't work, hit the oldest and lowest concentration of humans

As long as the software is rated, vetted and approved by regulatory agencies, liability can be handled. It's no different than today: establish where (if any) fault lies, let insurance deal with the finances. Faults will just shift more and more to the operator and/or designer of the software, away from the driver until there is no fault or no driver left



The question that is really relevant is: Can we expect computers to react faster and better than most humans? I think we can.


As corner cases (like you describe) happen, we'll finally have to start to decide what we want to happen in those situations. We didn't have the luxury to do that before, we will have in the near future.



Right now we sweep these dilemma's under the rug and blame the driver afterwards when he/she made the wrong call in those few ms available on the spot. A bit unfair to me.

[HFWR]

Hell, we can't even synchronize the traffic lights...


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[GrayHare]

"But think of all the chauffeurs that will be thrown out of work!"

Bar owners are all for auto autos, no more need to be the Drinking Hall Monitor.

[splitwdw]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski I wonder, if you are using one of these cars, will it be ok for the human "driver" to take a nap?

No napping just in case you have to jump into action. I would think it boring watching the car drive.

Quote:

Originally Posted by davef I can't wait as I do not really enjoy driving AND while the vast majority of drivers are respectful to bicyclists, for the ones that are not, I am more and more convinced their driving approach cannot be influenced. I hope the cars are built with features that keep them at a safe distance while passing and they are not allowed to pass on blind curves.

That's a good point about the bicyclist. I don't understand the people that drive too close to them. I give a wide berth just in case they lurch in front of me......don't want to scratch my paint......only kidding.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro If only we can find better jobs for the truck drivers, what's not to like?

Why won't there be self driving trucks

Quote:

Originally Posted by chilkoot Not to change the subject, but what about the occasional, unavoidable worst-case scenario where a car must decide between taking out a pedestrian and causing an accident that might take several lives? Does programming really contain reasoning to take as few lives as possible?

We will ban pedestrians!!! Or maybe have large rubber barrels at each intersection and you would get in, roll yourself into the intersection and the cars could bounce you across the street. OHHHHH, over head zip lines at intersections.

Many of you are engineers, one of the comments was that the auto cars would be able to travel within a few feet of the car in front. If you were the first car in line wouldn't you use too much fuel due to the "drafting" of the cars behind.

[freebird5825]

I wonder how the automatic driving sensor system would handle this scenario ?
Voice activation to override the auto-pilot ?

"No expense was spared"

Take special note of the lettering on the side rearview mirror (0:58) if you didn't catch it the first time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxqHVoZ0fzc

[harley]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst I honestly don't think it's going to "really" happen in my lifetime. Oh sure, there will be some auto-auto's, but it won't be universally adopted. I always liked this old idea, The Roads Must Roll - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia although even back then they had the pre-Internet version of "hackers" to worry about, and rolling roads were quite vulnerable to the pre-Internet version of a SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) attack.

One of my very first SF stories. I read it before I was even a teen. I could never wrap my mind around stepping from the faster belts to the slower ones.

As far as in your lifetime, you might be surprised. I wouldn't like to guarantee it, but I've seen some amazing changes in the world just in the past 20 years. Hopefully you (and I) have at least 20 left. It might surprise you how much more could change in that time.

[Totoro]

Quote:

Originally Posted by splitwdw Why won't there be self driving trucks

There will be (maybe even first!). I meant we'll need to find jobs for the now unemployed truck drivers. Unless we want to keep paying their salaries for goofing off (ER!).

Otherwise it's one of the few not so good effects of self-driving vehicles.

[CoolChange]

I am personally looking very forward to the day for many of the reasons called out earlier which I have quoted below rather than repeating.

Here are my thoughts on a few of the negatives already called out:

• Driving enjoyment: Just not my thing any more; loved it when younger.
• Software glitches and hacking:
  • I already trust my life to much larger machines (large commercial planes) that are in many ways already autonomous. I am sure this is safer than relying on human pilots to actually handle all of that driving. Same with automated trams in some areas, including airports.
  • This is one of the [few in my opinion] benefits today's tort law system in the USA: Everyone is heavily incented to avoid harden systems that could cause injury.
  • No, I do not believe the software and systems will be perfect, especially at first; but, I do expert them to be significantly better than the current alternative.
• Putting truck and taxi drivers out of work:
  • I am currently hearing about a shortage of qualified truck drivers impacting GDP in the USA.
  • Labor unions kept train conductors around long past the time they were actually needed for freight train safety. So, these drivers should have plenty of time to figure something out.
  • My hope is that Uber and its competitors will decimate the current taxi driver population long before this becomes the problem for that profession.
• Unavoidable crash dilemma: I trust a highly engineered system much more than millions of emotional drivers who may also be drunk, distracted, or just unskilled.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB I'm looking forward to them. Too much time behind the wheel is challenging for me and we'd like to get out for longer road trips. I think a self-driving car would be of major benefit for aging folks and also parents with babies & young children.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjquantz After almost getting T-boned today by someone who thought he could talk on his cell phone and drive at the same time, self-driving cars can't get here soon enough. If you want to talk on the phone, let the machine drive.

Quote:

Originally Posted by davef I can't wait as I do not really enjoy driving AND while the vast majority of drivers are respectful to bicyclists, for the ones that are not, I am more and more convinced their driving approach cannot be influenced. I hope the cars are built with features that keep them at a safe distance while passing and they are not allowed to pass on blind curves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIYes I look forward to self driving cars. I have observed that loosing the ability to drive with age is a major loss of independence. I hope that by the time driving is no longer a safe option for me self driving cars will be functional. It would also be great for the times now when I am just too tired to drive. Yes, I like the "home James" option. Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

Quote:

Originally Posted by sengsational I would like to see highways with "automated drivers only" lanes. And put some teeth in it: you take it into "manual mode", and you get a ticket automatically mailed to your house...tell it to the judge. They'd have zero rush hour fender-benders and so a predictable commute (for those poor buggers that still do that kind of thing).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro I'm really looking forward to it. Logically, all of the following should happen: Cars will actually be used instead of standing still all day. The average utilization now is <10%. This could easily become 30%. Driving yourself will become illegal on most roads because self-drivers will have less than a tenth of the accidents (being generous here). Computers don't get tired, drunk, high, nor emotional. Car ownership will become like owning a horse: for enthusiasts only. Why own a car when it's a factor 3 cheaper to not own one and there is always one of the kind you like just a beep away? Congestion will plummet and become more predictable Ride sharing becomes easier and drives down cost and congestion further. Parking lots will become smaller, freeing up real estate 1M people will lose their jobs (truck and taxi drivers) Speeding and parking ticket revenue will disappear overnight, taxes will be raised elsewhere Transport of goods will drop by 10% or more (no truck driver). Fuel efficiency goes up since self-drivers can tailgate with very little added risk, cutting on wind drag. So safer roads, less accidents, less hassle and more economic efficiency. If only we can find better jobs for the truck drivers, what's not to like? Like having the best chauffeur in the world available to you 24/7 at a reduced cost, and none of the hassle.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrayHare "But think of all the chauffeurs that will be thrown out of work!" Bar owners are all for auto autos, no more need to be the Drinking Hall Monitor.

[Car-Guy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harley I'm just curious about how others feel about the change.

It's not for me.

[tulak]

Most definitely.

I think this will be a big benefit to society. We'll reclaim massive amounts of land. Cars will be utilized significantly more. Traffic congestion will decrease. And a lot of lives will be saved.

It can't happen soon enough.

[clifp]

Most definitely and I think the timing couldn't be better.

The technology will almost certainly be better than the average driver (and at best I'm average driver) in the next 3-5 years. The regulatory, insurance companies etc. will probably take 10 years before they are allowed. I figure in 20-25 years they'll be a lot of pressure to keep people from driving their own vehicles.

At the time I'll be in late 70s or early 80s and probably should consider my license for my own safety as well as the safety of others.

I understand that people are reluctant to give up control. But let's be honest, most 80 year old are a bad drivers. Given my choice between risking killing myself or somebody else, taking a bus, or waiting for van at the assisted living center to take me where i want go. or a self-driver car or maybe even better self-driving Uber taxi's, the choice is obvious.

[jon-nyc]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Walt34 I sure look forward to seeing all those other idiots out there being taken out of the equation though.

Exactly. The benefits of that would be so great I'd be willing to give up control of my automobile in exchange for them.

[travelover]

When I'm 90 years old I don't want to be driven around by some auto pilot car. I want to be at the wheel of a pusher motorcoach towing a SUV, terrifying everyone else on the road.

[Amethyst]

This. The local gym has an "Our Wonderful Community" video loop running all day long, and I am thinking of the scene of "Active Adult" old ladies - all with identical pastel outfits and poofy hairdos - seating themselves on the dreary Old People's Bus. The full-on shot shows nary a smile among them. Maybe a luxuriously decorated, owner-directed, self-driving "coach" would bring a smile.

Amethyst

Quote:

Originally Posted by clifp Most definitely and I think the timing couldn't be better. The technology will almost certainly be better than the average driver (and at best I'm average driver) in the next 3-5 years. The regulatory, insurance companies etc. will probably take 10 years before they are allowed. I figure in 20-25 years they'll be a lot of pressure to keep people from driving their own vehicles. At the time I'll be in late 70s or early 80s and probably should consider my license for my own safety as well as the safety of others. I understand that people are reluctant to give up control. But let's be honest, most 80 year old are a bad drivers. Given my choice between risking killing myself or somebody else, taking a bus, or waiting for van at the assisted living center to take me where i want go. or a self-driver car or maybe even better self-driving Uber taxi's, the choice is obvious.

[Mulligan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R That's me! All my cars have had it for ages and ages, but I have never turned it on.

Im still mad they moved the headlight dimmer switch from the floorboard to the steering column.


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