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Old 10-19-2013, 05:01 PM   #21
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Less than half a kilometer across? Piffle. Chump change. Certainly a continent-blaster, but barely an extinction event, unless it hits an ocean. And what are the odds of that happening?


Asteroids are Natures way of asking "How's that space program coming along?"
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Old 10-20-2013, 12:46 PM   #22
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Less than half a kilometer across? Piffle. Chump change. Certainly a continent-blaster, but barely an extinction event, unless it hits an ocean. And what are the odds of that happening?
If it hits at all, I would think there's about 70% or so chance it hits water and 30% chance of hitting land. But those higher order probability calculations are likely beyond my ken.
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Old 10-20-2013, 01:37 PM   #23
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Certainly a continent-blaster, but barely an extinction event, unless it hits an ocean.
That's interesting. Why is it worse if it hits an ocean? I was kind of thinking it would raise less dust.
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Old 10-20-2013, 03:30 PM   #24
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That's interesting. Why is it worse if it hits an ocean? I was kind of thinking it would raise less dust.
Because you end up with Sharknado
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Old 10-20-2013, 04:00 PM   #25
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or a tidal wave.
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Old 10-21-2013, 12:56 PM   #26
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Because you end up with Sharknado
Thanks for that. I can see that I was missing out on a little bit of cultural gold by never having heard of that phenomenon.
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Old 10-21-2013, 01:00 PM   #27
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If it hits at all, I would think there's about 70% or so chance it hits water and 30% chance of hitting land. But those higher order probability calculations are likely beyond my ken.
I think it doesn't really make a difference what an asteroid of that size hits. It pretty much ignores the half a mile of water and just goes kablooey.

Best bet is to be on the opposite side of the planet, or better on one of those 30 day trips to mars.
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Old 11-07-2013, 07:49 AM   #28
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An update to this threat thread
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But now a team of scientists is suggesting that the Earth is vulnerable to many more Chelyabinsk-size space rocks than was previously thought. In research being published Wednesday by the journal Nature, they estimate that such strikes could occur as often as every decade or two.
Story here http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/07/sc...find.html?_r=0
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