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Bakken
Old 04-08-2008, 10:24 PM   #1
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Bakken

So I hear USGS is finally going to release their official assessment on how much recoverable oil is actually there in the Bakken oil fields.

Some guess USGS is going to say 200 billion barrels. Others are speculating possibly as high as 400 billion. Either way, that's a heck of a lot of oil!

Resource Investor - Blog - Gettin' back'n the Bakken

I've read in some places that Murphy Oil & Fidelity, among some other big players, have already been quietly staking positions in this.

Skeptical DW says it's all just timed as a political ploy for the election.

Anybody here think there will be any immediate US market effect due to the upcoming USGS announcement on Thursday?

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Old 04-08-2008, 10:27 PM   #2
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Don't know, don't care

All I know is that my best pick of 07 was a Canadian income trust (I am Canadian) called crescent point energy which has a large presence in the Bakken. Bought at 18 and now at 30 per unit and yields 10% a year in tax free income...woot! Trades as CPG on the TSX.
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Old 04-10-2008, 08:45 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by accountingsucks View Post
Don't know, don't care

All I know is that my best pick of 07 was a Canadian income trust (I am Canadian) called crescent point energy which has a large presence in the Bakken. Bought at 18 and now at 30 per unit and yields 10% a year in tax free income...woot! Trades as CPG on the TSX.
Au Contraire - I think you do know & you do care - if not, why the stock pick? Errant throw of the dart?

Tell us now!!!! What DO you know? (& when did you first know it)
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Old 04-10-2008, 06:57 PM   #4
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USGS report today says 3-4.3 billion bbl of technically recoverable oil (did you mean millions in your first post? 400 billion seems unreasonable).

I've been long BRY since 2004. (up 282%). They also have a substantial presence in the Bakken play and saw a nice pop today.
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Old 04-10-2008, 07:12 PM   #5
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I had to laugh, when I saw this.
My grandparents homesteaded somewhat near where the Exxon well is.
They finally proved up the worthless rock pile in the 20's, sold it and moved south. The neighbors were the Bakkens.

I could have been the JR of North Dakota!!!
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Old 04-10-2008, 07:12 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Texarkandy View Post
Au Contraire - I think you do know & you do care - if not, why the stock pick? Errant throw of the dart?

Tell us now!!!! What DO you know? (& when did you first know it)
CPG did just file their 2007 financial statements/MD&A and they are on sedar.com....search form them and it will be one of the first things on there. Anywho, they drilled something like 200+ wells in the year and all of them were a success - reading the MD&A will give you more info about Bakken that may not be anywhere else. They also mentioned something to the effect that proveable reserves have increased 4X from previous estimates for the leases that they own. To be honest, the only reason I bought CPG was for the 13%+ yield (not a typo) at the time and a recommendation from an analyst I heard on TV.

You can read what other analysts say about it here:
Crescent Point Energy Trust
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Old 04-11-2008, 07:28 AM   #7
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Quote:
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USGS report today says 3-4.3 billion bbl of technically recoverable oil (did you mean millions in your first post? 400 billion seems unreasonable).

I've been long BRY since 2004. (up 282%). They also have a substantial presence in the Bakken play and saw a nice pop today.
No, "hundred" billion is what I put in my first post based upon some news articles I had read. (I certainly claim no expertise in oilfield geology)

There seems to be some widely varying numbers have been thrown around about Bakken.

From one article:
"The 3 billion to 4.3 billion (or “mean value” of 3.65 billion barrels) figure is far less than the 400 billion to 500 billion barrels of Bakken oil estimated by now-deceased USGS scientist Leigh Price and the 200 billion to 300 billion barrels estimated by the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division two years ago.
But Dorgan and Hoeven noted that those estimates were of total oil in place, not total oil recoverable using current technology, which continues to evolve."
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Old 04-11-2008, 05:54 PM   #8
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For purposes of comparison, from 1948 to 2005, the total amount of oil pumped out of the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, the largest and best oil field ever discovered, was 60 billion. In the 1970's it was estimated that there were 170 billion bbl original oil in place (which is always greater than the amount recoverable) in the Ghawar field. The next largest field is Burgan in Kuwait with around 65-70 billion bbl, and field size rapidly drops off after that. So whoever said Bakken might be 400 billion bbl was guessing that it would some 2.5 times as large as Ghawar. Possible, but highly unlikely. And, in fact, it turns out to be around 4 billion, a decent find, but no Ghawar.
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Old 04-11-2008, 09:48 PM   #9
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I wonder why then the wide disparity in numbers? These are all geologists speculating here I assume?

I realize, of course, that a lot is not recoverable with current technology. But the gaps in these reports seem to be huge?
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Old 04-11-2008, 10:43 PM   #10
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Isn't this oil shale? Oil is difficult and expensive to recover from oil shale. Is Bakken shale oil easier to recover than the oil in the shale formations in Wyoming and Utah? IRRC it has been know for many years that those deposits have more oil than Saudi but that doesn't mean that we will be using it any time soon.

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Old 04-12-2008, 06:17 AM   #11
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Apparently new technology involving "horizontal drilling" & "fracking" makes it recoverable.

$100 barrel oil has made it cost effective - (I've even read $75 oil makes it cost effective)

(Note: I certainly don't claim to have any expertise whatsoever re: oil - the articles just caught my eye - wouldn't it be wonderful!)

I'm just wondering personally if this is something to watch for some potentially very good investments in the involved companies.
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Old 04-12-2008, 08:43 PM   #12
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Some Bakken related oil E&P's include:

EOG, WLL, CPG_UN.TO, CLR, BEXP and BSIC.
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Old 04-12-2008, 11:29 PM   #13
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What ever Bakken investments you buy should be with a 20 to 30 year timeframe. It is going to be start/stop/start/stop just as it has been for 30 years or so. The locals gave this study a pretty big ho-hum.
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