Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Boomer Retirements Projections
Old 04-06-2012, 02:19 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 12,465
Boomer Retirements Projections

Never mind...
__________________

__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-06-2012, 02:47 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Brett_Cameron's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: South Eastern USA
Posts: 1,031
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
....

Guess I just like data & graphs...
Me Too!
__________________

Brett_Cameron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2012, 02:48 PM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: seattle
Posts: 643
I have come to think that slow news days cause journalists to reach far back into the storage closet in desperation & drag out the scapegoat, not :"the dog ate my homework" but "the boomers have caused, or will cause or failed to cause__________."

I can recall these main "financial" claims: 1] there will be a huge decline in residential re values, because the boomers have to sell their houses. 2] Nobody to buy all the financial instruments boomers cash in. 3] remodelling industry will soar because boomers all need special equipment and housing types. 4] Assisted living facility investment will boom because of boomers 5] boomers are hogging resources, or boomers don't have enough resources because they smoked too much dope, on and on....

Most of the time,IMO, there is a failure on the part of the writer to cast the net of observation wide enough to see a relevant picture. One thing for sure, people love to point the old finger.

I like graphs, too, where did you find them?
bld999 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2012, 04:09 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 8,808
There probably were a lot of people who would have retired during the downturn but held on to let their portfolios recover. Unfortunately, there were probably more who "retired" involuntarily during the same period and couldn't get back in the workforce.
__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2012, 04:09 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 17,869
I wonder what the data source is for the "retirees". If it is SS claims then perhaps the growth is people who got laid off who were 62 or older, tried and could not find employment and decided to claim SS earlier than they would have otherwise.

I could see that the recession would have caused those on the edge and OMY syndrome to delay. I know I delayed my retirement about a year as a result of the recession.
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2012, 04:10 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 17,869
Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff View Post
There probably were a lot of people who would have retired during the downturn but held on to let their portfolios recover. Unfortunately, there were probably more who "retired" involuntarily during the same period and couldn't get back in the workforce.
Great minds think alike - and hit the "Submit Reply" button at the same time too.
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2012, 05:01 PM   #7
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,624
Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff View Post
There probably were a lot of people who would have retired during the downturn but held on to let their portfolios recover. Unfortunately, there were probably more who "retired" involuntarily during the same period and couldn't get back in the workforce.
And now that their portfolios have recovered, they'd have to pay 2/3 more for health insurance than they would have 4 years ago, so they feel stuck to their job for the Megacorp health insurance.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2012, 05:08 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 17,869
If it is just SS claimants, then the data is flawed IMO. It would not count many of us on these boards who ER'd.
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2012, 05:14 PM   #9
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,624
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
I wonder what the data source is for the "retirees". If it is SS claims then perhaps the growth is people who got laid off who were 62 or older, tried and could not find employment and decided to claim SS earlier than they would have otherwise.
That is also a factor that artificially depresses the published unemployment rate. People who want to still work but get discouraged and retire are not considered as unemployed but they are still a victim of the lousy job market.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2012, 05:57 PM   #10
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 40,168
I agree - - probablly crashing portfolio values contributed greatly to the decrease in retirees in 2008-2009. Even federal retirees were fewer in 2008-2009, despite good job security. Imagine how many fewer retirees there would have been, had more lost their jobs! I read a really good article about the lower number of federal retirees in 2008-2009 which had numbers and graphs, and which of course I can't find. I'll substitute this one written in July of 2010.

News Articles: Tidal Wave of Federal Employee Retirements?

Quote:
Take a look at the nineteen years worth (FY1990 through FY2008) of retirement numbers. Notice how total retirements for FY08 were less than FY07, less than FY06, and less than FY05. For FY09, only the first two quarters are shown. They indicate the number of voluntary retirements in the first quarter of FY09 were fewer than any first quarter since FY04, while the second quarter retirements in FY09 were fewer than any second quarter since FY05.

Does the above sound to you like a “tidal wave” of retirements? I didn’t think so. But if there is no tidal wave, then why does OPM want us to believe otherwise?
Here are the numbers retiring each year, by year, straight from OPM:

Retirement Information and Services

201182,837
201076,864
200987,907
200886,615
200792,349
2006103,292
200594,977
200490,441
200381,128
200274,153
200177,330
200077,383

In 2009, there were 87,906 retirees + W2R.
__________________
5/17/2018: Retired a second time, this time from my volunteer Admin duties. After 10 years of being on the team, and 40,000+ posts, the time just seemed right. It has been such fun to work with all of our Mods and Admins and I plan to stick around as a regular member.
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2012, 12:16 AM   #11
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Thousand Oaks
Posts: 855
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
And now that their portfolios have recovered, they'd have to pay 2/3 more for health insurance than they would have 4 years ago, so they feel stuck to their job for the Megacorp health insurance.
personally, i didn't find that to be the case. i looked into a health plan just about 4 years ago and when i finally signed up for it was nowhere near a 2/3 increase. I have essentially zero health problems as a single 51 year old (knock on wood) which may have something (a lot?) to do with it. i guess i'm not sure what causes the big boosts people are seeing. pre-existing conditions ? older age ?
mh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2012, 05:59 AM   #12
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: dubuque
Posts: 622
it seems there are certain points in the insurance industry like 60 and 65 years old when insurance takes a jump just because of the different age bracket. I also was one looking for part time work to fill my spare time, but with all the younger people looking for work, if you are over 60 you are less desirable and if there are 20 younger people applying for the same job you are out of luck.
frank is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2012, 06:12 AM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 43,364
Quote:
Originally Posted by mh View Post
i guess i'm not sure what causes the big boosts people are seeing. pre-existing conditions ? older age ?
Here's an example: DW has pre-esixting conditions and signed up for an individual policy at age 57. Four years later the premium had increased by 70%. I'm a year older than she, have no pre-exisitng conditions and my premium increase over the same time period was 67%.
__________________
Numbers is hard

Although rare, it is possible to read something on this forum you don't agree with and simply move on with your life

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2012, 07:06 AM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Brett_Cameron's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: South Eastern USA
Posts: 1,031
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
Never mind...
Me too!
Brett_Cameron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2012, 07:15 AM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
73ss454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,378
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Here's an example: DW has pre-esixting conditions and signed up for an individual policy at age 57. Four years later the premium had increased by 70%. I'm a year older than she, have no pre-exisitng conditions and my premium increase over the same time period was 67%.
That's a phenomenon known as a "condition expectation" on the part of the Ins company.
__________________
Work is something you do to get enough $ so you don't have to....Me.
73ss454 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2012, 07:44 AM   #16
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Gone fishing
Posts: 25,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by mh View Post
personally, i didn't find that to be the case. i looked into a health plan just about 4 years ago and when i finally signed up for it was nowhere near a 2/3 increase. I have essentially zero health problems as a single 51 year old (knock on wood) which may have something (a lot?) to do with it. i guess i'm not sure what causes the big boosts people are seeing. pre-existing conditions ? older age ?
I took a look at the rate sheet (a few years old) for our insurance plan. It gives the premium by age group and is broken down into 5 year groups starting at <25. Rebased to $100, it is

....< 25 $100
25 - 19 $125
30 - 34 $160
35 - 39 $205
40 - 44 $253
45 - 49 $325
50 - 54 $444
55 - 59 $579
60 - 64 $784

So, beginning with one's 50th birthday, the rate increases 37% just due to age. Same policy, same coverage. Two more 30%+ increases if one is fortunate enough to make it to medicare age.

You can tell this rate sheet is 4 years old because our current premium is more than double the one on the list but our plan is different. The deductible is $3.5K higher for each of us ($7K for the two of us).
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2012, 07:54 AM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 17,869
Are those rates for one person or a couple? We're paying about $600 for the both of us in the 55-59 quintile.
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2012, 08:06 AM   #18
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Gone fishing
Posts: 25,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
Are those rates for one person or a couple? We're paying about $600 for the both of us in the 55-59 quintile.
Per person. But these are old and have already more than doubled...
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2012, 08:08 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 17,869
So if one was 55-59 it would be over $2k a month at today's prices? Ouch!!

I would probably not have ER'd at that cost. Florida rates I assume.
__________________

pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Boomer article Finance Dave Life after FIRE 25 03-24-2012 02:10 PM
Boomer in virginia efv1 FIRE and Money 0 01-09-2012 07:03 AM
Baby Boomer Humor tangomonster Other topics 10 10-20-2011 08:26 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:18 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.