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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-02-2005, 12:57 AM   #21
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Re: Bubbles

Our local fish wrapper headlined Patricia Choi this week for selling $120 million worth of Oahu real estate last year. Of course that's not "so much" when you consider that one of her sales was a Kahala house at $17.5M.

5/12 into this year she's already sold $90M and theoretically she could top $200M by the end of the year. So I don't think it's over yet, and it'll be interesting to see her December totals.

I know realtors have to share that 6% commission with a lot of people, but what if she keeps "just" 0.5%?
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-02-2005, 01:08 AM   #22
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Re: Bubbles

As with the tech bubble bursting in 2000, I know the exact time and degree of the housing bubble. And the day after it happens, I am willing to remind all of you that I knew it was going to happen.

Market timing is a losers game.
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-02-2005, 02:23 PM   #23
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Re: Bubbles

So is buying too much of an overpriced asset classe, even if it might keep going up...
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-02-2005, 02:28 PM   #24
 
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Re: Bubbles

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Originally Posted by th
So is buying too much of an overpriced asset classe, even if it might keep going up...
That is why you rebalance your portfoilo. I was 'forced' to sell some of my REIT's early this year.
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-02-2005, 04:22 PM   #25
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Re: Bubbles

So, I understand that if / when the bubble bursts it will hurt housing prices, it will hurt the banks, it will hurt the realtors, etc. etc. etc. out into the general economy.

What I haven't been able to figure out (and maybe wiser heads can help me here), is who stands to GAIN? Is there any area of the economy that will benefit from a fall in housing prices? Any sector that I can invest in, that is? Has anyone of the experienced investors on this board ever made money by waiting for the drop and buying real estate after the drop?

Or will it be like Japan in the early nineties -- nowhere to run, nowhere to hide?

Caroline

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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-02-2005, 04:30 PM   #26
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Re: Bubbles

First time home buyers will benefit.

People with lots of cash that can buy when prices return to a reasonable level will benefit.

People who like buying foreclosures will have a lot to choose from.

Bankruptcy lawyers will do pretty well.

We had a 'boomlet' in the late 80's in sacramento CA real estate. Followed by a slow steady seven year downhill slide. At the bottom in '96 I bought. Home prices were close to, and in a few cases below, construction cost for the home...the land was free. I wanted to buy a bunch more while they were on fire sale. Woman I was living with "didnt think it was a good idea". The handful of homes I had my eye on and could have bought for ~$1.2M are worth about $4.5M right now. One home I could have gotten for ~$355-360, a six bedroom, 5 bathroom 4500 square footer on an acre just resold for $1.35M last month.
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-02-2005, 04:53 PM   #27
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Re: Bubbles

Quote:
Originally Posted by th
People with lots of cash that can buy when prices return to a reasonable level will benefit.
Vulture capital
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-02-2005, 04:56 PM   #28
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Re: Bubbles

Quote:
Originally Posted by th
First time home buyers will benefit.

People with lots of cash that can buy when prices return to a reasonable level will benefit.

People who like buying foreclosures will have a lot to choose from.

Bankruptcy lawyers will do pretty well.

We had a 'boomlet' in the late 80's in sacramento CA real estate.* Followed by a slow steady seven year downhill slide.* At the bottom in '96 I bought.* Home prices were close to, and in a few cases below, construction cost for the home...the land was free.* I wanted to buy a bunch more while they were on fire sale.* Woman I was living with "didnt think it was a good idea".* The handful of homes I had my eye on and could have bought for ~$1.2M are worth about $4.5M right now.* One home I could have gotten for ~$355-360, a six bedroom, 5 bathroom 4500 square footer on an acre just resold for $1.35M last month.
I'd hate to have to clean that sucker.
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-02-2005, 05:29 PM   #29
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Re: Bubbles

Yep, you'd need a cleaning service. But after buying it for $355k I think you could afford the $100 a week.

I loved the layout...built into a hillside, you went around back and into the bottom level through a slider, one giant rec room with a half bath and wet bar. A projector and sound system, 3-4 big overstuffed couches and a refrigerator, and bobs your uncle.

First floor had the usual living/dining/kitchen with two first floor bedrooms. Top floor had four beds. Master suite had a separate 12x14 reading room with built in hardwood shelves, and a 'three way' fireplace that was visible from the master suite, the reading room, and was at the base of the whirlpool tub for two. Maybe a whirlpool tub for three Every bedroom had its own private deck, with a huge two story deck on the back.

Full acre that backed up on a greenbelt drainage easement that was about 1/4 mile wide with a seasonal stream. In the back of a cul de sac. So no neighbors viewable from the side windows, and your back yard neighbor was so far back you needed binoculars to see the house.

Finish work in the house was exquisite. The joints, caulking and trim work were perfect.

Not buying this one and a handful more just like it is one of my biggest regrets.
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-02-2005, 09:35 PM   #30
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Re: Bubbles

Bit rich for my budget; I'm more blue collar than blue blood.

I do pay $16 wkly to Pat's Lawn service. 8)

(Bet neither of those guys who do the mowing are named Pat...)
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-03-2005, 01:00 PM   #31
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Re: Bubbles

Quote:
Originally Posted by th
So is buying too much of an overpriced asset classe, even if it might keep going up...


2shay!

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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-03-2005, 04:35 PM   #32
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Re: Bubbles

TH, I bet there are quite a few people who are sorry they bought
those Calif. houses "built into a hillside". :

Cheers,

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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-03-2005, 05:23 PM   #33
 
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Re: Bubbles

That's right. I'm very happy to be on a flat lot now.

Our last house was on a hillside in Oakland, CA -- the garage and the top floor, three floors up, were both at "ground level."

We were just about to finish selling it when the buyer's soils person said that it was going to wash away. We built it in 1992 with a $100,000 foundation, but this engineer said the entire hill was going to obliterate it someday.

Sold it for $100,000 less, but still a good profit, and twice as much as our current home.

But with a house like that, you can't relax when it's raining.
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-03-2005, 05:33 PM   #34
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Re: Bubbles

I live approximately 10 miles from Laguna Beach. Sad to see so many displaced homeowners and all their personal possessions lost. They were brave (and somewhat foolish) souls to build on the hillside -- no insurance. The homes that were 'yellow tagged', today those homeowners were allowed to go to their front doors and try to lure out their pets who were left behind. Animal Shelter is helping out to trap pets and reunite with homeowners.
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Re: Bubbles
Old 06-03-2005, 05:57 PM   #35
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Re: Bubbles

21k - 1979 over ground(mostly) - 2005 replacement cost at $50/sq ft - maybe 70k - now mostly over water.

70k is way too much for a house/camp in my book. Of course - if a hurricane were to blow us out - and we ended up someplace where there was more ground than water? - who knows - especially if rent was high.

heh, heh, heh - location, location, location
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