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Care to bet on the elections?
Old 11-06-2006, 10:53 AM   #1
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Care to bet on the elections?

Check out this website:

http://www.tradesports.com/

and choose Politics in the Trading Categories on the left side of the page.

I think it's interesting that Republican control of the Senate is trading at around 72-73%. Yet, when you look at how the key states are trading, only VA is trading approximately 50-50.

Note these are not polls, but rather the way the betting is going.
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?
Old 11-06-2006, 10:57 AM   #2
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?

These type sites where a large number of people make real-world bets are often the very best indicators of real-world outcomes.

These type sites often outperform polling and other election-indication systems.
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?
Old 11-06-2006, 11:15 AM   #3
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
These type sites where a large number of people make real-world bets are often the very best indicators of real-world outcomes.

These type sites often outperform polling and other election-indication systems.
Yup. But remember the outcry when the Pentagon proposed a terorism events market? I thought it was a great idea.
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?
Old 11-06-2006, 12:10 PM   #4
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?

The Iowa Electronic Markets also has futures that pay out based on outcomes of political elections.

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

It's run by the Iowa School of Business.

Interestingly enough, the Repubs are favored around 73% to retain control of the senate at the Iowa site also. Efficient markets I suppose.

Otherwise you could potentially arbitrage the different futures among different sites to make a few bucks.
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?
Old 11-06-2006, 04:48 PM   #5
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?

Dropped to 65.1%, interesting. I honestly think they will retain the Senate, I'm tempted to buy at these prices!
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?
Old 11-06-2006, 06:04 PM   #6
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
Dropped to 65.1%, interesting. I honestly think they will retain the Senate, I'm tempted to buy at these prices!
That is interesting. All the news stations are saying the races are tightening as the hours tick by. I would think that would make it less likely that the dems would get the Senate.
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?
Old 11-06-2006, 08:21 PM   #7
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Re: Care to bet on the elections?

Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
That is interesting. All the news stations are saying the races are tightening as the hours tick by. I would think that would make it less likely that the dems would get the Senate.
I think you are right, and I do think the Senate will be GOP, which is why I'm tempted to bet. But races always tighten ahead of an election as those who flirted with the other party come back to their "home party". I remember Mondale "had huge momentum" the week before the election. Still, my bet is a 51-49 Senate split.
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