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% Chance of robots taking your job
Old 09-06-2017, 12:18 PM   #1
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% Chance of robots taking your job

I'm retired so this doesn't apply to me, and what I used to do is so far safe from robots, but I stumbled across this article today about the social implications of coming widespread changes caused by robots doing jobs that don't require much education. For example truck drivers and waiters are pretty much doomed. Librarians need to be looking over their shoulders. Surgeons have nothing to be concerned about.

Anyway, here's the article: Rise of robots taking jobs to be 'painful and enduring'* | Daily Mail Online

Here's where you can plug in your current or former job and find out how easily a machine can replace you: https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/

It is interesting to play around with different jobs and see what the predicted changes are. All results to be taken with a large grain (rock?) of salt of course.
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Old 09-06-2017, 01:14 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34 View Post
Surgeons have nothing to be concerned about.
Guess again:
Quote:
In a robotic surgery breakthrough, a bot stitched up a pig’s small intestines using its own vision, tools, and intelligence to carry out the procedure. What’s more, the Smart Tissue Autonomous Robot (STAR) did a better job on the operation than human surgeons who were given the same task.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-...in-world-first

Education requirements are not a solid predictor these days of how hard your job is to replace. Radiologist vs. garbage collection, just to give one example.

Socially speaking: a lot of human happiness comes from being needed and seeing you can actually make a positive difference. Many jobs that are being killed have that aspect, and no replacement in sight.
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Old 09-06-2017, 01:19 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Walt34 View Post
I'm retired so this doesn't apply to me, and what I used to do is so far safe from robots, but I stumbled across this article today about the social implications of coming widespread changes caused by robots doing jobs that don't require much education. For example truck drivers and waiters are pretty much doomed. Librarians need to be looking over their shoulders. Surgeons have nothing to be concerned about.

Anyway, here's the article: Rise of robots taking jobs to be 'painful and enduring'* | Daily Mail Online

Here's where you can plug in your current or former job and find out how easily a machine can replace you: https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/

It is interesting to play around with different jobs and see what the predicted changes are. All results to be taken with a large grain (rock?) of salt of course.
I put down my job as retiree and got no results. I did get a suggestion of Personal Financial Adviser, and got 58 percent chance of my "job" being taken over by robots. Going to put up a fight against that...
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Old 09-06-2017, 05:40 PM   #4
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Of course what is a "robot" is important.
For a couple of decades I spent my time creating software that put folks out of a job, of course at first I didn't really realize that was the effect, but eventually I caught on to it.

Back then amongst programmers, there was really a concern that AI would replace programmers, but it turned out the AI back then was poorly conceived and was not an issue.

Many intellectual jobs can be done without "robots" having arms/legs/movement, really just a software program and some input and output system.

My last job was to put the owner of a company out of a job, he hired me to create software so he didn't have to work anymore !
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Old 09-06-2017, 05:51 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Walt34 View Post
I'm retired so this doesn't apply to me, and what I used to do is so far safe from robots, but I stumbled across this article today about the social implications of coming widespread changes caused by robots doing jobs that don't require much education. For example truck drivers and waiters are pretty much doomed. Librarians need to be looking over their shoulders. Surgeons have nothing to be concerned about.

Anyway, here's the article: Rise of robots taking jobs to be 'painful and enduring'* | Daily Mail Online

Here's where you can plug in your current or former job and find out how easily a machine can replace you: https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/

It is interesting to play around with different jobs and see what the predicted changes are. All results to be taken with a large grain (rock?) of salt of course.
Well, I consider my job, for the last 15 years since ER, to be "personal wealth manager" I have received a couple of invitations from robotic managers that would be more than happy to take over for a small .3% fee... Maybe my job is not so secure after all
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Old 09-06-2017, 06:01 PM   #6
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When will a robot take over my job? Not soon enough.

odds of a robot taking my job? Not high enough.
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Old 09-06-2017, 06:11 PM   #7
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... Here's where you can plug in your current or former job and find out how easily a machine can replace you: https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/

It is interesting to play around with different jobs and see what the predicted changes are. All results to be taken with a large grain (rock?) of salt of course.
I put in "Aerospace Engineer". It says 1.7% chance of being replaced.

Though my life career was mostly in Aerospace, my degrees were really in Electrical Engineering.

So, also try "Electrical Engineer". It says 10% of being replaced. Hmmm...

Well, doesn't really matter now as I am retired.

Oh, how about "Stock Picker" as I am an active investor? The program does not know, and suggests "Laborers, Material Hand Mover". No, those jobs can't be good. Indeed, it says 85% chance of being replaced.
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Old 09-06-2017, 07:07 PM   #8
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0.44% , I didnt think it would be that high.
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Old 09-06-2017, 07:44 PM   #9
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Cool site. Thanks for sharing.
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:09 PM   #10
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Jobs? What of do you speak?
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:49 PM   #11
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Of course what is a "robot" is important.
For a couple of decades I spent my time creating software that put folks out of a job, of course at first I didn't really realize that was the effect, but eventually I caught on to it.

Back then amongst programmers, there was really a concern that AI would replace programmers, but it turned out the AI back then was poorly conceived and was not an issue.

Many intellectual jobs can be done without "robots" having arms/legs/movement, really just a software program and some input and output system.

My last job was to put the owner of a company out of a job, he hired me to create software so he didn't have to work anymore !
Did we w*rk together? That's what I did as well.

The mantra was "a human must add value". Many human activities didn't. Sadly the folks who were put out of work often built their own gallows by documenting their jobs via software.
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Old 09-06-2017, 09:02 PM   #12
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Even the oldest profession of the world is not immune...

Sex Robots Are Here, and They’re Incredibly Lifelike. But Are They Dangerous?
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Old 09-06-2017, 09:25 PM   #13
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Even the oldest profession of the world is not immune...

Sex Robots Are Here, and They’re Incredibly Lifelike. But Are They Dangerous?
Hahahaha, how do you find these things
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Old 09-06-2017, 09:29 PM   #14
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Hahahaha, how do you find these things
They are standing on the street corner in 6" heels and a two terrabyte hard drive.
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Old 09-07-2017, 05:51 AM   #15
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Interesting site. I plugged in "retiree" but apparently they haven't considered that for robots. That selection did offer up an option for Personal Financial Advisors with a 58% chance of being replaced.
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Old 09-07-2017, 09:48 AM   #16
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Then there is this:

Sorry, the article is most likely behind a pay wall.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/workers...pse-1504631505

Quote:
The brick-and-mortar retail swoon has been accompanied by a less headline-grabbing e-commerce boom that has created more jobs in the U.S. than traditional stores have cut. Those jobs, in turn, pay better, because its workers are so much more productive.
.

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Bessen found that typesetting and compositor jobs fell about 100,000 over the 1980s, but from 1979 to 2007 the number of designers more than quadrupled to 800,000, making up for the loss many times over.
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Old 09-07-2017, 10:14 AM   #17
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They are standing on the street corner in 6" heels and a two terrabyte hard drive.
Priceless
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Old 09-07-2017, 03:07 PM   #18
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Computer Programmer said 48%.

I don't buy it. There is plenty of code automatically generated, even today. But it just moves the programmer to be the person running the code generators; the job will change, but not have a 48% of evaporating.
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Old 09-07-2017, 03:52 PM   #19
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Waiter is 94% doomed.
I'm not going to a sit down resturants to be waited on by a robot.
Dance had a small chance, but still shouldn't it be no chance?
Robot repair technician is 24% chance.lol
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Old 09-17-2017, 07:35 PM   #20
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"Robot" is a broad term IMO.
To me, the goal of most companies is to minimize/eliminate the need for humans and their related needs for HC, pay increases, vacation and relative un-dependability.

Our local McDonald's just installed kiosks where you order and pay for your food and then pick it up across the lobby. The drinks you ordered are likewise poured in a carousel by a machine.
Airlines have done similar kiosks for boarding passes and baggage tags and everywhere has self-checkout stations. Amazon is working on a grocery store plan where you just walk out of the store, taking whatever you want, as a set of cameras track what you buy/put back on the shelf. (Whole Foods 2.0?)

Sadly it seems that the lower paid jobs are more at risk than the higher paid ones.
Human labor seems to be a major negative of late and our friends the 'robots' in all their iterations appear to be taking over.

The next 10 years will be interesting on the low-wage labor front I suspect.
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