These all seem like good arguments.
What I do not know is if the intermediate to longer term, do supply problems perhaps trump almost any bearish argument?
We are well into a slowdown, but crude powers ahead. I have lightened pro-crude positions from time to time, but so far share price increases have overcome the effect of fewer shares owned so my $ position continues to grow.
I believe that generally commodity stocks should be bought to be sold, but I also think that perhaps (if I only had more certainty here!) this time it really is differerent.