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Crude oil Prices how high?
Old 03-27-2008, 07:27 AM   #1
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Crude oil Prices how high?

Up to 107 this morning again.

I still think we hit 125 or 130 way before 80 dollars ever again.

Oh and if you think energy stocks are gonna keep you safe forget it. 5 + a gallon for gasoline and diesel will tank the economy. Been to the Food Store in the past month?? A dozen eggs are pushing 2 + dollars a dozen. A year ago .89 cents. Everything that is moved by truck is going up.

Oh yes and the great iraqi adventure which was going to pay for itself?? They blew up a major crude pipeline near Basra today. You just gotta love these morons in Iraq. Look our troops are not even in Basra and look how the morons we freed from saddam take care of their country!!

Osama and kind do not have to do a darn thing but sit back and watch the price of crude go up up and away. It will tank the economy better than a bombing someplace on our soil.

Now if somehow we could get the OPEC nations to understand that we really are serious in not sending any more of our money to them for their crude that we were going to rebuild our railroads get everyone into a 60 mpgallon vehicle sooner than later things might become a bit more interesting.

I mean have you seen what our oil dollars are building in Dubai?? Crazy!

Amazing Dubai Building Photos - AOL Money & Finance
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Old 03-27-2008, 07:34 AM   #2
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Gosh, and I remember living in Houston in the early '80's when oil went down to $15 a barrel...gulp.
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Old 03-27-2008, 08:23 AM   #3
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Old 03-27-2008, 09:49 AM   #4
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Up to 107 this morning again.

I still think we hit 125 or 130 way before 80 dollars ever again.
Oh come on NewGuy, look back over the board- many of our petroleum experts have confidently told us over and over that oil would soon reach not $80, but $20! "It's just speculation, not supply and demand!"

Yeah right-- and in spite of a real economic slowdown, it just keeps going up.

Could all these geniuses be mistaken?

Ha
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Old 03-27-2008, 09:54 AM   #5
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Oh come on NewGuy, look back over the board- many of our petroleum experts have confidently told us over and over that oil would soon reach not $80, but $20! "It's just speculation, not supply and demand!"

Yeah right-- and in spite of a real economic slowdown, it just keeps going up.
The thing is, there's always a bubble somewhere. There's always a subset of investors, speculators and hedge funds following the "hot money." Hot money is in commodities now, particularly gold and oil. It's as much a play on the dollar as on oil itself, IMO.

The bottom line is that the oil market is hypersensitive to anything that can *potentially* disrupt supply, even by a very small amount. Every little burp is an excuse to bid it up to ridiculous levels. And people who analyze the oil market and know it a lot more than I ever will mostly think oil is way overbought. So I still believe $80, but anyone expecting $20 oil -- and maybe even $50 oil -- to ever return is probably delusional.
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Old 03-27-2008, 10:04 AM   #6
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Speculation and the weak dollar are definately part of the runup. If the dollar gets stronger, the price of oil will be pressured down.
However, there is a fundemantal increase in the 'floor' price of oil which is going up each year as it becomes more expensive to get at the remaining oil and demand continues to rise.
The main question I have is how long will it take for the dollar to strengthen. The longer it takes the higher the 'floor' will be.
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Old 03-27-2008, 12:12 PM   #7
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on charlie rose show the other day, shell oil president (who is retiring) said that even at prices less than what we pay today (and the way he said it i got the feeling that he meant considerably less) there remains 100 years of uninterupted oil supply

here is the interview:

A conversation with John Hofmeister - Charlie Rose
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Old 03-27-2008, 12:36 PM   #8
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I heard him on CNBC. On that show when he mentioned the amount of time left to pump oil he was including shale oil.
Yes, I agree with him that it would be 100 years before we ring the last drop of oil out of the ground. However that last bit of oil is going to cost an awful lot to get to.
Now, if we go into a worldwide deep recession, the demand part of the equation will come down. Frankly, I don't see that happening so I expect the price of oil, year over year, to continue higher.

On the political side, we are painfully exposed to the whims of terrorists. If they really wanted to damage our economy, they would blow up more pipelines. We can't defend them and we are completely reliant on oil. We need alternatives and we need to start using the ones we already have.
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Old 03-27-2008, 03:32 PM   #9
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If they really wanted to damage our economy, they would blow up more pipelines. We can't defend them and we are completely reliant on oil.
Actually most pipelines can be fixed relatively quickly. If I were a terrorist I would attack the supertankers that supply everyone. Neither we or anyone else is willing to give a destroyer escort to all the supertankers in the world............
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Old 03-27-2008, 04:07 PM   #10
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I agree with him that it would be 100 years before we ring the last drop of oil out of the ground. However that last bit of oil is going to cost an awful lot to get to.
if i did not misunderstand the interview, the point was that, given these prices and taking from currently unconventional sources, that oil supply is not a problem at all for the next 100 years. accordingly, the ringing today of such high prices is stricken not by natural supply and demand but by both poor domestic infrastructure plus an artificial market created by the wringing of foreign cartels.

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If I were a terrorist I would attack the supertankers that supply everyone.
only if the terrorists want to face the rage of peacenik ecologists: "screw it. nuke'm!"
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