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Don't move to Florida?
Old 05-30-2019, 11:11 AM   #1
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Don't move to Florida?

From the article: "An expert on the impact of climate change on financial markets has advice for anyone thinking of buying a home in Florida: don’t.

Spencer Glendon of the Woods Hole Research Center said Friday on the Florida Roundup that financial institutions are going to wreck Florida’s economy if they don’t confront the risk to coastal real estate and slow their lending. He warned that home buyers in the state should no longer be receiving 30-year mortgages.

“What maybe seemed like a long time horizon or something that’s far away actually isn’t far away,” Glendon said. “The longer we wait to start adjusting, the more painful it will be.”

"He compared the threat of sea-level rise in Florida to earthquakes in California."

https://www.wlrn.org/post/investment...cLCTt31PPwXJ_g
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Old 05-30-2019, 11:34 AM   #2
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Thanks for the article. We are researching the possibility of moving to an active adult community in Florida. The bigger threat to real estate value IMHO is demographics. The future will have fewer retirees due to the baby boom & bust (also with fewer comfortable middle class pensions). Supply of homes will exceed demand exerting downward price pressure. We are in no rush, the North Carolina summer is hot enough.
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Old 05-30-2019, 11:57 AM   #3
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The family has wintered in Fort Lauderdale since the 1940's. There's been lots of changes and a lot of things I worry about. Rising tides are low on my list however.

I'd have to guess that with a new set of $5MM condos (each) and $2MM private homes along the beach/Intracoastal going up every few months it doesn't seem like very many are worried about rising tides.

Yes, we get that flood tide that they put on the news now but the locals have seen this since memory.

As far as "30 year lending" I'm told that a lot of those $5MM condos are paid for in cash, mostly by people coming from outside the US.

I also recall about 40 years ago when our homeowners insurance company at the time cancelled coverage of our house north of Boston citing our proximity to the ocean. 40 years later, still no damage, still no claims, still waiting.
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Old 05-30-2019, 12:04 PM   #4
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Thanks for the article. We are researching the possibility of moving to an active adult community in Florida. The bigger threat to real estate value IMHO is demographics. The future will have fewer retirees due to the baby boom & bust (also with fewer comfortable middle class pensions). Supply of homes will exceed demand exerting downward price pressure. We are in no rush, the North Carolina summer is hot enough.
We did move to FLA, but one of the reasons for not moving to a 55+ community was the changing demographics over time who could buy houses.
We do pay for hurricane insurance but it is a few hundred a year, (no flood insurance needed) as we are 1 hour from the coast.
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Old 05-30-2019, 12:11 PM   #5
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"He compared the threat of sea-level rise in Florida to earthquakes in California."
The comparison of earthquake to flood is IMO an exaggeration. They may be similar in terms of total $$ value of damage caused over an extended period of time, but that's about it. An earthquake is far more dangerous to human life, can cause almost unlimited damage, and is entirely unpredictable. Sea level change is much slower and the impact and effects are predictable, so steps to minimize or ameliorate property damage can be carried out.
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Old 05-30-2019, 12:12 PM   #6
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It would be great if people did not move here, especially the NE...… Wink
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Old 05-30-2019, 12:18 PM   #7
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The comparison of earthquake to flood is IMO an exaggeration.
What he actually said in his comparison was that banks continue to issue mortgages in earthquake zones, so he doesn't see why they wouldn't continue to issue them in FL.
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Old 05-30-2019, 12:18 PM   #8
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It would be great if people did not move here, especially the NE...… Wink
Hey don't send them to the Central/Southwest either.
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Old 05-30-2019, 12:23 PM   #9
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Maybe I'm just getting old, but over my lifetime I've been warned about Communists, nuclear war, over population, running out of oil, running out of food, nuclear power plants, global cooling, global warming, acid rain, the Japanese buying up all of the US, the Saudis buying up all the US, Y2K and global financial collapse among just a few "end of the world as we know it" apocalypses. (oh! and the end of SS)

I just can't get worked up about this stuff anymore.

I'm living the same life, doing the same things and going to the same places that I have for my entire 67 years. Not much has changed in my day-to-day as far as I can see.
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Surround the state with dikes and windmills to keep it pumped out
Old 05-30-2019, 12:26 PM   #10
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Surround the state with dikes and windmills to keep it pumped out

It's not that the tides are rising. It's the combined weight of all those extra Yankees moving in that's pressing the state downward.
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Old 05-30-2019, 12:46 PM   #11
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We have lived in a small residential town, since 1973 about 150 yards from the ocean and expect to sell our house in 10+ years when we may need extra help. I think we can hold out until then and maybe get more for our property as it becomes ocean front.
I have lived in Florida since about 1961. Before Disney moved in I moved away from Orlando to north Fl. My wife has lived in Fl since about 1950. Both of us have been everywhere in the state.

If we were younger and looking for a place to settle I might start looking for a home in a place other than Fl. Most places are so crowded from Central Fl and cities south I won't even entertain thoughts of going there anymore. It's a hot mess unless you like crowds, large numbers of tourists, dangerous driving, really hot and humid weather most of the year, hurricanes increasing intensity, South Fl eventually rationing water as salt water intrusion ruins the aquifer from the population density draining the resources, and increases in Red Tide on both the east and west coasts of the state affecting respiratory problems. At the moment it is 98 degrees at the end of May. Because of our location we have less of any of these problems. But I'm not telling where I live until I'm ready to sell.

IF the ocean rises it will mean that cooler parts of the country will get a lot warmer and Fl will become unbearable. Western Carolina looks more attractive.


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Old 05-30-2019, 12:51 PM   #12
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When we bought our first Florida home in 2006, I remember someone showing me an article with “scientific research” being cited that the area my house was in would be under water within ten years. We did sell that house in 2016, but not because it was under water. We now have a condo on the water just north of Ft Lauderdale. Not worried one bit.
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Old 05-30-2019, 01:01 PM   #13
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Because of our location we have less of any of these problems. But I'm not telling where I live until I'm ready to sell.
Not too hard to figure out though. Unless you live on the Panhandle (Not sure why anyone would want to ). There are not many choices in North FLA that are close to a beach.
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Old 05-30-2019, 01:10 PM   #14
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I think those who are concerned about rising tides/global warming should not move to Florida.

As a proud, native Floridian, I am not worried about rising tides/global warming but what does worry me is that our quality of life (growth, jobs, low taxes, good roads, friendly people, diversity, etc.) will be negatively impacted by folks who do worry about rising tides/global warming.

I welcome all to Florida but leave behind the way you did it "back up north" so Florida remains a prosperous Florida.

God Save Florida!

(As an aside, a native Floridian learned in 3rd grade science that Florida was once underwater and our teachers took us outside and showed us rocks that proved it with fish imprints.....rising and ebbing tides are part of the circle of life)
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Old 05-30-2019, 01:12 PM   #15
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Not to belittle anyone that lives there but it would be that last place on earth I would want to live.
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Old 05-30-2019, 01:14 PM   #16
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(As an aside, a native Floridian learned in 3rd grade science that Florida was once underwater and our teachers took us outside and showed us rocks that proved it with fish imprints.....rising and ebbing tides are part of the circle of life)
As long as you are in a "X" or "X" Shaded flood zone, and not in Sinkhole Alley. I would worry about sinkholes more than other hazards. YMMV

Now, what about those poor buggers in Kansas and flyover country, they get walloped EVERY year.
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Old 05-30-2019, 01:36 PM   #17
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As long as you are in a "X" or "X" Shaded flood zone, and not in Sinkhole Alley. I would worry about sinkholes more than other hazards. YMMV

Now, what about those poor buggers in Kansas and flyover country, they get walloped EVERY year.
Yes, sinkholes were my first thought as a generalized florida hazard (my sister lives north of tampa and seems to be surrounded by sinkholes.

My take on this article was not that the author was worried about the residents, he was concerned with the banks and insurers. But I laugh, because it is well known that insurers only collect money, they don't pay it out.
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Old 05-30-2019, 02:32 PM   #18
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The family has wintered in Fort Lauderdale since the 1940's. There's been lots of changes and a lot of things I worry about. Rising tides are low on my list however.
[...]
Yes, we get that flood tide that they put on the news now but the locals have seen this since memory. [...]
+1 If I lived in Florida, I would absolutely feel the same way.

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The comparison of earthquake to flood is IMO an exaggeration.
I hesitate to compare the two. I do know that I don't want to experience either one, or a wildfire, or a tornado, yet as humans we know there can be some small probability of having to go through disasters.
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Not to belittle anyone that lives there but it would be that last place on earth I would want to live.
To me, there are pros and cons.

Pros: On the one hand, I love the beaches and climate there, and when I was younger I thought it would be a great place to retire. Key West was so beautiful when I went there on my honeymoon back in 1975, and the SCUBA diving was amazing. Also there are lots of old people there so maybe I would feel younger in Florida, by comparison.

Cons: On the other hand, from what I gather, some parts of Florida are becoming quite overcrowded by now. Then there are the old stories about sinkholes that concern me, but probably nobody else. I think Florida living (especially South Florida living) might be lots more appealing to me if I had already put the necessary work into improving my utterly abysmal Spanish. And then I am not terribly fond of hurricanes.

Oh well, no need for me to even consider the pros and cons of moving to Florida. Frank absolutely hates Florida and will not budge on that one. There is no way I am moving anywhere away from where he is, and there is zero chance that that would be Florida.
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Old 05-30-2019, 02:44 PM   #19
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Then there are the old stories about sinkholes that concern me, but probably nobody else. .
From listening to my sister's stories of the local sinkholes, and how the neighbors repair of their sinkhole cause more in the neighborhood, I would have great trepidation about buying in a sinkhole area.
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Old 05-30-2019, 02:59 PM   #20
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Not to belittle anyone that lives there but it would be that last place on earth I would want to live.
Last place on Earth? You would prefer Somalia? Sure it has snakes, gators, fire ants and way too many people from NY, but it isn't that bad! Cheers!
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