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Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-24-2007, 06:51 AM   #1
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Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

Don't give up on collecting SS just yet, it looks like the numbers are coming in to support the trend of working longer...

For much of the 20th century there was a trend towards early retirement among older workers, according to a March 2007 report for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College written by Leora Friedberg, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia.

But Friedberg points out a change: “The trend towards earlier retirement has not just leveled off, but has apparently reversed.”



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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-24-2007, 10:36 AM   #2
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

What is this number?
Is it the number of people over 55 in the total work force?
Or is it the number of people over 55 still working?

If it is the former it is not surprising given the baby boomers are getting older. If it is the latter same reason: There are a lot more guys reaching 55 now. I bet that the average age of the over 55 population is also dropping at the same time.
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-24-2007, 10:50 AM   #3
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

Does this mean that the people who haven't been saving money have to work longer?
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-24-2007, 02:39 PM   #4
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bssc
Does this mean that the people who haven't been saving money have to work longer?
More importantly, does it mean that they'll contribute that many more years of payroll taxes to Social Security & Medicare?

I'm trying to figure out if I should feel sorry that it's harder for everyone to retire early. The people who truly care about ER will probably still be able to achieve their goal...
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-24-2007, 08:20 PM   #5
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

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Originally Posted by Nords
More importantly, does it mean that they'll contribute that many more years of payroll taxes to Social Security & Medicare?

I'm trying to figure out if I should feel sorry that it's harder for everyone to retire early. The people who truly care about ER will probably still be able to achieve their goal...
I think that hardness is self inflicted, people want more and save less, which makes it harder to retire. I admit the wanting more is why we haven't retired yet.
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-25-2007, 06:49 PM   #6
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

That's great news! There will be more room on the golf course for people like me!!!
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-25-2007, 06:58 PM   #7
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

I expect to see more 'news' like this in the coming years. Social Security stability date will continue to get 'pushed out' etc. Right now it's scheduled to go 'broke' in 2041.

What is your faith that anyone on the planet can tell us what is going to happen in 2041? We have far bigger problems on the table currently.

Congress and the next White house needs to focus on the health care cost problem. I think the public is tired of hearing GOP fixes to FDR programs that don't need eliminating fixing.
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-25-2007, 07:34 PM   #8
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

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Originally Posted by REWahoo!
Don't give up on collecting SS just yet,
Who's giving up. Not me
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-25-2007, 09:02 PM   #9
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
I expect to see more 'news' like this in the coming years. Social Security stability date will continue to get 'pushed out' etc. Right now it's scheduled to go 'broke' in 2041.

What is your faith that anyone on the planet can tell us what is going to happen in 2041? We have far bigger problems on the table currently.

Congress and the next White house needs to focus on the health care cost problem. I think the public is tired of hearing GOP fixes to FDR programs that don't need eliminating fixing.
You are a true optimist. By "going broke" you seem to mean when the "trust fund" is exhausted. The SS / Medicare surplus will end in just a few more years and our elected officials will suddenly have to pretend to pay back those "bonds" that have been issued to the trust fund. With SS and Medicare no longer paying their own way (or generating a surplus they can spend elsewhere -- both parties are guilty), we will then start seeing the true crisis develop. There is no real trust fund with real money in it. All we have is a promise to pay benefits out of tax revenues.

The "elderly" is a dependable voting block and they always vote their pocket book. There will be games played but ultimately the benefits will be paid. The question is really what extra taxes will be levied or other programs cut.

If you think SS is "fine," I don't think any reasonable person can ever convince you otherwise. The original recipients of SS got a really good deal. The "greatest generation" had a pretty good retirement payout at the expense of their children and grandchildren. The older boomers will probably barely get their money back. I'm afraid the young boomers and Gen X & Y will be the big losers.

But as Keynes said -- "In the long run we are all dead."
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-25-2007, 09:11 PM   #10
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

2b,

Medicare is in crisis. I mentioned that.

SS is not. - SS needs only minor tweaking despite what your buddy Bush told you. - Do you remember the 'tweaking' that was done in the early 80's? - Raise the retirement age a little, remove the "cap" etc. etc. -

Not a big deal! - Quit listening to Limbaugh and study the facts.
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-25-2007, 11:03 PM   #11
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bssc
Does this mean that the people who haven't been saving money have to work longer?
Actually, the folks who haven't been saving - unless they have a DARNED good pension fund - will probably have to work until they drop dead.
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-26-2007, 05:40 PM   #12
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
2b,

Medicare is in crisis. I mentioned that.

SS is not. - SS needs only minor tweaking despite what your buddy Bush told you. - Do you remember the 'tweaking' that was done in the early 80's? - Raise the retirement age a little, remove the "cap" etc. etc. -

Not a big deal! - Quit listening to Limbaugh and study the facts.
CT,

I don't listen to Limbaugh. Dave Ramsey's on at the same time.

The aggregate "promise" for the over 65/66/67 bunch includes both SS and Medicare. The system is and always has been bankrupt. There is no "account" with our "contributions" in it. Everything is a sham that can be changed on our politico's whims. The system depends on the generosity of our elected officials to divert tax dollars to pay for the supposed "earned" benefits.

They (both parties) have been merrily spending the SS and Medicare taxes on anything that they can think of. No party can claim a moral high ground but both try.

If you want to slice out SS, you can say "solvency" can be achieved with a few years added to when benefits can be collected, an increased tax rate and a little more erosion in the payout. You might even make yourself believe that the current system is anything but an intergenerational wealth transfer. The term "in denial" will also apply. It's not just a river in Egypt anymore.

I'll personally come out OK unless there is a means testing applied other than the regressive income tax applied to the benefits. The losers will be our children and grandchildren. Hence my quote from Keynes.

Here's the question. Knowing what you know today would you rather have put your and your employer's contributions into a tax deferred account that you controlled or would you rather have the wonderful investment known as SS? Now, ask yourself what you would want for your children. The answers don't really matter because reality says that our system won't really change in my lifetime. There are too many political forces around it.

This is a pointless topic but I dislike what appeared to be knee jerk, Kool Aid induced pontification.
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-26-2007, 05:53 PM   #13
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B

Here's the question. Knowing what you know today would you rather have put your and your employer's contributions into a tax deferred account that you controlled or would you rather have the wonderful investment known as SS?
I'll answer your question. Personally, I would come out much better if I got to control the money myself.

But being a concerned citizen of the USA, I would rather have S.S. - There is a price for modern society. This country has tried the 'look out for yourself' approach which the masses of the poor are left to fend for themselves.

Medicare may be hurting, but so is the whole private healthcare system of the USA. - It's time for the government to step in, as private enterprise has failed. The defense of our country is at stake!

You may want 'Hoovervilles' outside your door, but I don't. -

BTW - Dave Ramsey is not worth listening to. Unless you are deep in debt. He guarantees people 12% return in the market, and suggests a 10% SWR.
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-26-2007, 06:50 PM   #14
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat

It's time for the government to step in, as private enterprise has failed. The defense of our country is at stake!
yeah, the government is sooooo good at managing things : : :
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-26-2007, 06:57 PM   #15
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

Cripes thats all this country needs is more government meddling.
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-26-2007, 07:06 PM   #16
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

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Originally Posted by Alex
yeah, the government is sooooo good at managing things : : :
You guys sound just like the Hoover supporters of the late 20's. - If the government would not have stepped in you would not be here to complain.

Maybe you'd like Exxon to run things. They made record profits again this quarter. Over $9 Billion. I am all for free enterprise, but this is hardly free!
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-26-2007, 07:41 PM   #17
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

Ooof! And we pay $3 a gallon because they can't get by on less.
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-26-2007, 08:29 PM   #18
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

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Ooof! And we pay $3 a gallon because they can't get by on less.
You pay 3$ a gallon because you choose too. Ride a bike if you dont like the prices.
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-26-2007, 11:07 PM   #19
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

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yeah, the government is sooooo good at managing things
If you like the post office, you will love nationalized [oil] [medicine] [whatever].
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?
Old 04-27-2007, 03:58 AM   #20
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Re: Early Retirement headed for the Endangered Species list?

SS will be there. At worst, we will be paying more taxes on it via a means test. You will get it... just less of it if you have other resources.

So... worst case planning is probably prudent. Assume that you will get half of the expected SS in your plan if you have substantial other income streams that generate income taxes.

The other likely option is that immigration will increase substantially to get more payers (and workers) in the national economy (system). We will have a worker shortage in a few years. I believe this is how the problem will actually be solved! More payers in the system is the only way to solve a Pay As You Go approach. Even if SS is changed for younger people (private account)... we will need more people on the payrolls and to fill jobs.... Think of the service needs alone for 70 million elderly people.

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