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economy crisis?
Old 05-29-2008, 11:19 PM   #1
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economy crisis?

I think so!

- Mortgage rates rising, at 5.85% for a 30 year fixed
- Nonborrowed bank reserves now at -111,855,000,000 as of May 21st!!! http://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...ist/h3hist4.txt
- BANKS ARE BROKE!! THEY ARE ILLIQUID, ONLY THING SAVING THEM IS THE FED.
- Home sales still on the decline
- Record supply of single family homes
- Banks still not lending to consumers
- Oil near all time highs
- Banks trading at all time lows
- Real rate of inflation near double digits (? probably)
- Gasoline above $4.00 a gallon for regular unleaded
- Diesel fuel up to $5.00 a gallon
- Consumer confidence at 12 year low
- Take out commodities backed companies and earnings are down 20%+
- Unemployment projected on the increase
- Dollar still near all time lows (Yippee we have gained .03 on the Euro.... lets have a party all our problems are fixed)


Oh yeah, this is already priced into the market. lol

We are trading only ~5% off for the year!

What else do you have to read to see this is not a healthy environment?
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Old 05-30-2008, 12:52 AM   #2
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Geez God you could use a drink of some Larry Kudlow Kool Aid.

"Gold prices are going down" (stronger dollar)
"Interest rates are rising" (stronger dollar)
"Housing purchases are up" even though prices are still falling (confident consumers)

"America is great and will come out of this smoothly and quickly"...blah blah blah

"Goldilocks is alive and well people!"

I'm pretty sure Kudlow has lost it.
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Old 05-30-2008, 07:45 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by godoftrading View Post
I think so!

- Mortgage rates rising, at 5.85% for a 30 year fixed
- Nonborrowed bank reserves now at -111,855,000,000 as of May 21st!!! http://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...ist/h3hist4.txt
- BANKS ARE BROKE!! THEY ARE ILLIQUID, ONLY THING SAVING THEM IS THE FED.
- Home sales still on the decline
- Record supply of single family homes
- Banks still not lending to consumers
- Oil near all time highs
- Banks trading at all time lows
- Real rate of inflation near double digits (? probably)
- Gasoline above $4.00 a gallon for regular unleaded
- Diesel fuel up to $5.00 a gallon
- Consumer confidence at 12 year low
- Take out commodities backed companies and earnings are down 20%+
- Unemployment projected on the increase
- Dollar still near all time lows (Yippee we have gained .03 on the Euro.... lets have a party all our problems are fixed)


Oh yeah, this is already priced into the market. lol

We are trading only ~5% off for the year!

What else do you have to read to see this is not a healthy environment?
If I were you I would stay on the first floor and stay away from any open windows.
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Old 05-30-2008, 08:07 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by godoftrading View Post
I think so!
Quote:
- Mortgage rates rising, at 5.85% for a 30 year fixed
You call that high. You must've missed the late 70s-early 80s. For that matter, my mortgage in 2000 was 8.5%

Quote:
- Nonborrowed bank reserves now at -111,855,000,000 as of May 21st!!! http://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...ist/h3hist4.txt
- BANKS ARE BROKE!! THEY ARE ILLIQUID, ONLY THING SAVING THEM IS THE FED.
Well, some are...

Quote:
- Home sales still on the decline
Good time for bargain hunting, if you're finances are sound.

Quote:
- Record supply of single family homes
Ditto

Quote:
- Banks still not lending to consumers
Maybe not to over-extended consumers, but I'm sure I could get more money than I want to borrow...

Quote:
- Oil near all time highs
Not if adjusted for inflation.

Quote:
- Banks trading at all time lows
More bargain hunting...

Quote:
- Real rate of inflation near double digits (? probably)
nm

Quote:
- Gasoline above $4.00 a gallon for regular unleaded
- Diesel fuel up to $5.00 a gallon
See comment about oil...

Quote:
- Consumer confidence at 12 year low
And?

Quote:
- Take out commodities backed companies and earnings are down 20%+
Much needed correction.

Quote:
- Unemployment projected on the increase
Still historically low.

Quote:
- Dollar still near all time lows (Yippee we have gained .03 on the Euro.... lets have a party all our problems are fixed)
Aside from making our exports cheaper, this problem will self-correct soon enough.

Quote:
Oh yeah, this is already priced into the market. lol
Maybe, maybe not...

Quote:
We are trading only ~5% off for the year!
I'm up about 2% ytd.

Quote:
What else do you have to read to see this is not a healthy environment?
Stop reading that stuff...
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Old 05-30-2008, 04:57 PM   #5
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Well put HFWR!

DD
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Old 05-30-2008, 07:18 PM   #6
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All that doom & gloom & life is still good here in these United States - truly amazing, huh?
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Astroturf
Old 05-30-2008, 07:37 PM   #7
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Astroturf

Googled 'godoftrading economy crisis' and discovered that he/she/it has been posting the same tripe everywhere. A banning may be in order. Sure looks like astroturf to me...

Astroturfing - Wikipedia
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Old 05-30-2008, 07:40 PM   #8
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NSE, use that little triangle under his avatar to report his post to the mods.
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Old 05-30-2008, 07:50 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
NSE, use that little triangle under his avatar to report his post to the mods.
Thanks for the encouragement.

I really don't like being the bad guy...except when I'm drinking, and this sure feels like beer-thirty.

I have used the dreaded triangle...
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Old 05-30-2008, 07:59 PM   #10
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When in doubt, report. The mods don't read every post and need help in identifying these characters.
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Old 05-30-2008, 08:46 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NotSoonEnough View Post
Googled 'godoftrading economy crisis' and discovered that he/she/it has been posting the same tripe everywhere. A banning may be in order. Sure looks like astroturf to me...

Astroturfing - Wikipedia
No wonder this horse-pucky was so disjointed, out of left field and often posted in the wrong board.
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Old 05-30-2008, 08:56 PM   #12
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It's not that much worse than the "chicken little" posts by some of our other members and probably not ban-worthy at the moment (but the mods will discuss amongst ourselves).

To reiterate for godoftrading:

Your post starting this thread is of very little value to people on this board. If you want to post something worth reading, make some intelligent observations about the data points you are presenting. Tell us how we should respond to the facts you have presented. Give us some novel insight into the situation. Don't just post a list of alarmist bullet points from last week's newspaper headlines -- it is a waste of our time to read and your time to post.
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