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Even the Marshmallow Test falls after new research
05-29-2018, 08:12 AM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,764
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Even the Marshmallow Test falls after new research
It seems that every "truth" we've been told throughout our lives falls apart after later research, especially when the researchers don't enter the experiment with the accepted expectations. Bacon and eggs are bad, then good. Statins will make you live forever, or kill you. Alcohol is bad, good, bad, good...
But the one thing I thought was real, and made sense, was that the ability to delay gratification as a kid would result in FIRE. Now even that universal constant is being questioned. Professor replicates famous marshmallow test, makes new observations
From the study -
Quote:
the relationship between a young child's ability to delay gratification and later outcomes is much weaker than previously thought. The new study discovered that while the ability to resist temptation and wait longer to eat the marshmallow (or another treat offered as a reward) did predict adolescent math and reading skills, the association was small and disappeared after the researchers controlled for characteristics of the child's family and early environment. And there was no indication that it predicted later behaviors or measures of personality.
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So, I'm off to eat marshmallow and bacon sandwiches with a glass of red wine. See you later, if I survive.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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05-29-2018, 08:18 AM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 2,232
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An MD friend of mine once told me that the first lecture he ever had in med school included the following caveat: Half of everything we teach you will eventually be proven wrong. Unfortunately, we don't know which half.
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05-29-2018, 08:19 AM
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#3
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,584
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Oh no. The marshmallow test doesn't categorize people into savers and spenders? I'm crushed. Next they'll be telling us the whole ants vs grasshoppers is also bogus. These are foundational principles.
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05-29-2018, 08:21 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
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This is a perfect illustration...folks should take "research" with a grain of salt. With my Dad's terminal illness, I have done a LOT of research on his disease and hospice care (outcomes, prognosis, etc.) and the conclusion that I came up with was, "well, it depends." I read a LOT research information (not the press releases or abstracts) and it became clear that many of these were conducted with a very limited number of participants or with a super-specific subset of patients, and thus not real useful. So, like most things in life...I think about these things with an eye to "common sense". If it seems fishy, it probably is.
__________________
FIRE'd in 2014 @ 40 Years Old
Professional Retiree
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05-29-2018, 08:36 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,010
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Oh no...
What am I going to do with all these marshmallows
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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05-29-2018, 08:47 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,171
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It just shows that raising kids isn't for cream-puffs.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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05-29-2018, 08:50 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,877
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Here's the key: "...the association was small and disappeared after the researchers controlled for characteristics of the child's family and early environment."
This does not invalidate the marshmallow test, it merely states that the child's family and early environment influence the child's later decisions, such as save/spend. They also influence the marshmallow test.
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05-29-2018, 09:03 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrayHare
Here's the key: "...the association was small and disappeared after the researchers controlled for characteristics of the child's family and early environment."
This does not invalidate the marshmallow test, it merely states that the child's family and early environment influence the child's later decisions, such as save/spend. They also influence the marshmallow test.
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Well, that ruins the story!! Geez....stop pointing out the FACTS.
__________________
FIRE'd in 2014 @ 40 Years Old
Professional Retiree
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05-29-2018, 09:16 AM
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#9
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Confused about dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Newburgh
Posts: 3
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I encourage everyone to read this book on scientific theories that are blocking progress “ This Idea Must Die “ Edited by John Brockman.
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05-29-2018, 09:28 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,317
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I was surprised to read that the famous Stanley Milgram experiment we all heard about in school (people would shock subjects at lethal levels when told to do so by authoritative, white coated authority figures) was very misleading. Apparently we saw a limited subset of results. The effect declined with broader subsets and reversed when the white coated figures "order" the subjects to increase the voltage by saying things like "you must." In the later cases, people basically responded with a resounding "F-you."
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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05-29-2018, 09:57 AM
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#11
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Seattle
Posts: 452
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I think there was a recent study that said most studies are deeply flawed....
__________________
Retired 2015 at age 55...50/45/5 AA
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05-29-2018, 10:00 AM
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#12
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,584
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HadEnuff
An MD friend of mine once told me that the first lecture he ever had in med school included the following caveat: Half of everything we teach you will eventually be proven wrong. Unfortunately, we don't know which half.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4legsgood
I think there was a recent study that said most studies are deeply flawed....
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Sturgeon's Revelation comes to mind.
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05-29-2018, 10:05 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
Sturgeon's Revelation comes to mind.
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Sounds fishy...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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05-29-2018, 10:05 AM
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#14
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Seattle
Posts: 452
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
Oh no...
What am I going to do with all these marshmallows
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make s'mores!
__________________
Retired 2015 at age 55...50/45/5 AA
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05-29-2018, 10:09 AM
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#15
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: SF Bay Area
Posts: 594
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrayHare
Here's the key: "...the association was small and disappeared after the researchers controlled for characteristics of the child's family and early environment."
This does not invalidate the marshmallow test, it merely states that the child's family and early environment influence the child's later decisions, such as save/spend. They also influence the marshmallow test.
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This would imply that siblings, raised in the same environment, would have similar save/spend habits. Not true in my family. I’ve always been a saver, my older sibs spent like it was burning a hole in their pocket...to this day.
How many in this forum have siblings who are spenders?
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05-29-2018, 10:49 AM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,317
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4legsgood
I think there was a recent study that said most studies are deeply flawed....
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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1182327/
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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05-29-2018, 10:54 AM
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#17
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Seattle
Posts: 452
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The marshmallow study never rang true for me, as someone who has always thought plain marshmallows are pretty gross, and possibly that people who like them are a little off.
__________________
Retired 2015 at age 55...50/45/5 AA
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05-29-2018, 11:35 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,962
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I thought it categorized people into rich successful capitalists and lazy bazztids on welfare? That's usually how the results are applied when people tell me about it
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05-29-2018, 12:56 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
Oh no...
What am I going to do with all these marshmallows
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Make it into fluff.
__________________
TGIM
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05-29-2018, 01:05 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ocean view
This would imply that siblings, raised in the same environment, would have similar save/spend habits. Not true in my family. I’ve always been a saver, my older sibs spent like it was burning a hole in their pocket...to this day.
How many in this forum have siblings who are spenders?
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I have both in my birth family. I think birth cohort is very important also. My brother in his 70s and me in my 70s almost have to be held upside down and shaken to get money out of us. My 2 next sibs, born in early 50s, couldn't save a cent if they had to. But one of these two has 2 daughters born in the 80s who are very careful with money. IMO, people are generally not stupid unless stupidity has become common in their reference group, which today is often their birth cohort.
Ha
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